I Love this Game 2004.

So it’s that time of year again, the NBA playoffs…which it means it’s time to post my consistently wrong postseason predictions. [2000/2001/2002/2003] I generally do ok in the East, but I’ve had Sacramento in the Finals three years running and I think I’ve finally soured on them (which is probably good news for Kings fans). At any rate…

THE EAST

Indiana Pacers (1) v. Boston Celtics (8): A rematch of one of last year’s first-round surprises, this series will be a rout. The Pacers are a better team this year and they now have a real coach in Rick Carlisle. (Thankfully for the Knicks, Isiah is a much better front office guy than he is a game-time decision-maker.) Conversely, the Celtics are much worse — They’ve lost all of their key role players (Battie, Kenny A, etc.) and picked up the only guy in the league with worse shot selection than ‘Toine, Ricky Davis. Unless Boston is on fire from behind the arc (like they were last year), this one’ll be ugly. Pacers in Five.

New Jersey Nets (2) v. New York Knicks (7): Ok, I’m picking the Knicks here ’cause my heart tells me to. I know they got run off the floor two weeks ago by a Nets team that didn’t have Kidd and K-Mart. I know that Allan Houston is sidelined and that the Knicks O can’t compete with New Jersey’s fast break onslaught. And I know the Nets are basically just a better team. I will say this, though — there’ll be at least one game in this series where Marbury totally outplays Jason Kidd. So, like I said, New York in Seven.

Detroit Pistons (3) v. Milwaukee Bucks (6): With Rasheed Wallace and Ben Wallace manning the paint, Detroit are the defensive Beasts of the East. And with TJ Ford injured and Keith Van Horn ever suspect, this one’ll be a walk for the Pistons. The only way to beat a D-structured team like Detroit is sheer offensive firepower, and the Bucks don’t have it, unless Van Horn puts up career numbers. Detroit in Six.

Miami Heat (4) v. New Orleans Hornets (5): Miami’s been playing amazing ball since the All-Star Break. N’awlins has been sucking it up. And, in playoff situations, it takes something special for me to bet against one of the Van Gundy boys. Miami in Seven.

THE WEST

Minnesota Timberwolves (1) v. Denver Nuggets (8): KG, Cassell, Spree…I’m loving this Minnesota squad. Garnett has a tendency to be too selfless with the ball in pressure-cooker playoff situations, but Cassell and Latrell should right the ship, particularly against Carmelo, Camby, & Co. Minnesota, welcome to the second round. Minnesota in Six.

Los Angeles Lakers (2) v. Houston Rockets (7): I’d love to see Jeff Van Gundy’s Rockets systematically dismantle the top-heavy, prima donna Lakers. I’d love to see Yao outplay Shaq and Stevie Franchise go nuts in this series. I’d love to see Kobe the inveterate ballhog shoot them out of the series. I’d love to see Gary Payton get sick of this outfit and move to another contender. But, unfortunately, none of this is going to happen. Lakers in Six.

San Antonio Spurs (3) v. Memphis Grizzlies (6): The Memphis Grizzlies? I’ve only seen Hubie Brown’s boys play once or twice, and they’ve never looked as dominant as the Spurs can at times. And, while the Grizz are 3-1 on San Antonio, I have to give the edge to my second least favorite contender. Unless Gasol comes up big, it’ll be the Duncan & Ginobli show. Spurs in Five.

Sacramento Kings (4) v. Dallas Mavericks (5): Hard to believe this match-up is coming in the first round. The Kings have been playing pretty badly lately, but then again, so has Dallas. I don’t think the Mavs would’ve won this series last year without the injury to C-Webb, so I’ll go Sacramento. Still, which Kings team will show up? If they’re clicking, they could win in five…but more likely it’ll be Sacramento in Seven.

THE REST

Indiana Pacers (1) v. Miami Heat (4): Other than the Knicks, which I admit was a goofy pick, I didn’t take any upsets in the First Round. And it won’t happen here…Indiana is a team on a mission, and they’ll at least make it to the Eastern Finals. Indiana in Six.

New York Knicks (7) v. Detroit Pistons (3): Ok, so we’re at a crossroads here. Do I venture into Bracket fantasyland and have the Knicks going all the way? Or do I admit my first pick was suspect and choose Detroit? I’m with the people who think the Pistons, with their plodding O and tight D, would’ve been a better match-up for New York in the first round than New Jersey, who just kill you with offensive numbers. Still, if the Knicks get this far without Allan Houston, they’ve overachieved. Detroit in Seven.

Minnesota Timberwolves (1) v. Sacramento Kings (4): These are the two teams I wanted to see in the Western Finals. Unfortunately, due to the Kings freefall, it has to happen now. The Kings have more playoff experience, but the T-Wolves have been playing much better ball. And I want to see Spree in the Finals again. Minnesota in Seven.

Los Angeles Lakers (2) v. San Antonio Spurs (3): Boo hiss. I’m sick to death of both of these teams. But, since the Spurs seem to have the Lakers’ number of late, I’ll go with San Antonio. Spurs in Six.

EAST FINALS: Indiana Pacers (1) v. Detroit Pistons (3): It’s the match-up everyone in the East has been waiting for, and I would’ve picked Indiana until watching ’em go head-to-head two weeks ago. Now, I’ll say ‘Sheed makes the difference and it’s Detroit in Seven.

WEST FINALS: Minnesota Timberwolves (1) v. San Antonio Spurs (3): The Spurs definitely have more experience and the big game edge. But they’re lousy free-throw shooters, and the T-Wolves backcourt are savvy veterans. Oh, why not? Minnesota in Seven.

FINALS: Minnesota Timberwolves (1) v. Detroit Pistons (3): Detroit finally confronts a team who can score more points than they can possibly stop. The only Eastern squad who can legitimately run against the Best of the West is Indiana, and that’s on a good day. KG, you’re the MVP…enjoy the ring. Minnesota in Six.

So there you have it. Of course, I’ll be delirious if the Knicks win, but I’d be very happy to see Minnesota, Sacramento, or any Eastern team take the championship too. The point is, anyone but the Lakers or Spurs. Please?

Wheelin’ and Dealin’.

Removing the last vestiges of the Layden era, Knicks GM Isiah Thomas makes another big trade, sending Keith Van Horn to Milwaukee for Tim Thomas and Atlanta’s Nazr Mohammed. (We also gave up Michael Doleac and a second-round pick.) Hmm. True, Van Horn is inconsistent, but he’s been playing well lately…and better than Thomas. Still, Thomas and Mohammed are both athletic players, and this might end up turning out for the best if Isiah can light a fire under ’em. (As for reports that we’ll pick up a troubled Vin Baker off waivers, all I can say is, I hope not.)

Chane Reaction.

Despite word from the NY Daily News this morning that the Czar might be coming to town, Knicks GM Isiah Thomas kicked Coach Don Chaney to the curb and instead hired Lenny Wilkens in his place. Well, if we’re going to switch horses in midstream, I much prefer Wilkens to Fratello. As for Chaney, it just so happens that I was at the Mavs game where he was so mercilessly booed. And, while I didn’t join in, I was definitely wondering why nobody was fouling Michael Finley for eleven long seconds in the crucial overtime. In sum, Chaney’s way out the door was handled classlessly, but it was also probably well overdue.

Blockbuster!

Ok, let me apologize again to Isiah Thomas. While I’m a bit concerned about all the draft picks locked up here (to say nothing of losing Macej Lampe and Milos Vujanic, two possible big-time players in the not-so-distant future), the Marbury/Penny for McDyess/Ward/Eisley trade today has to go down as another impressive move by our new GM. Starbury has been a bit of a hit-or-miss head case on his first three teams, but it’s been his dream to play for his hometown Knicks, so hopefully he’ll make the most of it. Penny ain’t what he used to be, but I’d expect him to score points in bunches off the bench every fifth game or so. As for what we gave up, it’s kinda sad that the McDyess experiment never amounted to much…but it already seems clear that it’s going to take at least the rest of the year for him to play to form again. Charlie Ward had a good decade with the Knicks, but he’s been trade bait for so long that I doubt he’s surprised. And the sheer fact that Isaiah found a taker for Howard Eisley and his glutted contract is amazing to me. So all in all, a great trade here for New York, even if we may get burned in the long-run by all the disappearing draft picks and projects. Update: Aldridge weighs in.

Knicks Resurgent.

Ok, clearly I owe Isiah Thomas an apology. In the past week, the revitalized Knickerbockers have won four in a row, and three of ’em were extended garbage-time blowouts (20, 28, and 29 points respectively.) Moreover, Thomas somehow convinced the Rockets to take Clarence Weatherspoon for Moochie Norris, which is a great deal for NY any way you cut it. Of course, the real test will come against real opponents (not just Miami and Orlando) early next month…but still, I’m quite surprised by the way Thomas has engineered this turnaround so quickly. Let’s hope it lasts.

Layden Off.

On the verge of effectively ending another season before the new year starts, the Knicks finally fire Scott Layden. This’d be great news for Gotham if his replacement weren’t Isiah Thomas, who’s recently run the CBA into the ground and treaded water for years with the hyper-talented Pacers. Hmmm. Well, at least Thomas isn’t coaching, and perhaps he can manage to draw some top talent back to the mecca of basketball.