Running Scared.

“In recent weeks, a startling realization has begun to take hold: if the elections were held today, top strategists of both parties say privately, the Republicans would probably lose the 15 seats they need to keep control of the House of Representatives and could come within a seat or two of losing the Senate as well. Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich…told TIME that his party has so bungled the job of governing that the best campaign slogan for Democrats today could be boiled down to just two words: ‘Had enough?’

TIME previews the increasingly nightmarish electoral landscape for the GOP, and the “signs suggest an anti-Republican wave is building, says nonpartisan electoral handicapper Stuart Rothenberg… ‘The only question is how high, how big, how much force it will have. I think it will be considerable.’ In addition, “administration officials say they fear that losing even one house of Congress would mean subpoenas and investigations–a taste of the medicine House Republicans gave Bill Clinton.

McCain-Feingold on the Road.

“‘There seems to be a disconnect between the rhetoric in Washington about what this is all about and what we hear here,’ Feingold said. McCain responded that he did ‘not want to get into a back-and-forth with one of my best friends.’” While visiting Baghdad, Senators McCain and Feingold argue “cordially and pointedly” over Iraq. “Feingold…said he was dismayed not to hear any of the military commanders he met with mention al-Qaeda as a source of the problems in Iraq. The Bush administration and U.S. officials here often point to the radical group as a major source of instability in the country.

The Family Business.

“Abramoff, for his part, once boasted that he had invested a million dollars in Buckham, according to a former Abramoff colleague…Abramoff expressed confidence that the funds would bring a good return for his clients, the colleague said. Good news/bad news for Boss DeLay: While DoL Robert Novak reports that Casino Jack is not implicating the Hammer as part of his plea bargain, the WP finds that former DeLay Chief of Staff Edwin Buckham skimmed over a million dollars from the US Family Network, a “pro-family” nonprofit funded by Abramoff clients. [Graphic] “In addition, Buckham and his wife, Wendy, acting through their consulting firm, made monthly payments averaging $3,200-$3,400 apiece to DeLay’s wife, Christine, for three of the years in which he collected money from the USFN and some other clients.” (Boss DeLay, it bears remembering also paid his wife and kids a half mill in PAC funds.) Well, I guess if by “pro-family” you’re talking about the Buckham and DeLay families, this is all money well spent.

Broken Reed.

“[Ralph Reed] has damaged Christian political work by confirming for some the stereotype that evangelicals are easily manipulated and that evangelical leaders use moral issues to line their own pockets.” In related news, former Christian Coalition head and current candidate for Georgia lieutenant governor Ralph Reed also finds it hard to shake the taint of Abramoff, and even finds himself persona non grata among evangelical conservatives such as Melvin Olasky of WORLD magazine.

Yearning to breathe free.

“‘The short-term politics of this are pretty clear. The long-term politics are pretty clear. And they’re both at odds,’ said Mike Buttry, a spokesman for Sen. Chuck Hagel.” With Republican unity already shattered by Dubaigate, the contentious question of immigration reform threatens to divide Dubya and the GOP anew, as 2008 hopefuls Frist and Tancredo attempt to outflank Dubya on the right on the issue of border security, while McCain tries to shore up his standing with the Bushies. “For Republican presidential candidates, immigration offers up a difficult choice: Appeal to conservatives eager to clamp down on illegal immigration who could buoy your position in the primaries, or take a moderate stand to win independents and the growing Latino vote, which could be vital to winning the general election.

Dissipating Duchy.

“The congressman’s tastes were eclectic and a little ostentatious. The man drove a Rolls (a bribe). His furnishings have a similar plea for attention: They shout ‘antique,’ even when they are reproductions.” So pass the wages of sin: As Randy “Duke” Cunningham’s ill-gotten lucre is auctioned off, the Pentagon announces an investigation into how Duke managed to wrangle earmarks for MZM. (Speaking of the demise of Dukedoms, I think my NCAA bracket is now officially busted.)

I’ll miss you most of all, scarecrow.

Some say that if you’re Muslim you can’t be free.” In a piece that’s drawn some controversy — God forbid our newsmedia call out the President when he’s making stuff up — the AP‘s Jennifer Loven scrutinizes Dubya’s rhetorical reliance on straw man arguments. Many find Loven’s piece convincing.

Massive Spoilers.

“These are just slush funds for conservative interest groups…These organizations would not be in existence if not for the federal dollars coming through.” The Post looks into the Dubya’s administration’s social spending priorities, and finds that during Dubya’s tenure the government has “funneled at least $157 million in grants to organizations run by political and ideological allies.” Says Rep. Chet Edwards (D-Tex.): “I believe ultimately this will be seen as one of the largest patronage programs in American history.

Cradle Will Rock.

“Remember the whiny, insecure kid in nursery school, the one who always thought everyone was out to get him, and was always running to the teacher with complaints? Chances are he grew up to be a conservative.” A several-decade-long study by UC Berkeley professor Jack Block finds a controversial correlation between confidence in childhood and later political leanings. “He reasons that insecure kids look for the reassurance provided by tradition and authority, and find it in conservative politics. The more confident kids are eager to explore alternatives to the way things are, and find liberal politics more congenial.” (Via Follow Me Here.)