Last Stand in Texas and Ohio?

“Several Clinton superdelegates, whose votes could help decide the nomination, also said Monday that they were wavering in the face of Mr. Obama’s momentum after victories in Washington, Nebraska, Louisiana and Maine last weekend. Some of them said that they, like the hundreds of uncommitted superdelegates still at stake, may ultimately ‘go with the flow,’ in the words of one, and support the candidate who appears to show the most strength in the primaries to come.” The NYT reports on the general shakiness in the Clinton campaign at the moment, and reemphasizes the importance of Ohio and Texas on March 4. (Jon Chait disagrees.)”‘She has to win both Ohio and Texas comfortably, or she’s out,’ said one Democratic superdelegate who has endorsed Mrs. Clinton, and who spoke on condition of anonymity to share a candid assessment. ‘The campaign is starting to come to terms with that.’ Campaign advisers, also speaking privately in order to speak plainly, confirmed this view.“

All well and good, but really: Let’s not put the cart before the horse here. We have the Chesapeake primaries tomorrow, and while the polls clearly favor Sen. Obama, they favored him before New Hampshire as well. Let’s see how those critical primaries shake out first before presuming the Clinton campaign is in full rout. As we should all know by now, there’s nothing more politically dangerous than a Clinton with his or her back to the wall. (And, being as oblique as possible for Wire fans behind the curve, Norman Wilson‘s recent advice to Tommy Carcetti about Clay Davis also comes to mind.)

More Endorsements, and the Big Three.

“‘Sen. Obama has been talking about hope and change and improving the morale of this country,’ Mr. Anchia said. ‘Gen. Patton once said that 80 percent of leadership is improving morale. And right now the country is in a pretty demoralized state and looking to get out of it, and I think Sen. Obama has the most compelling message there.’” More recent Obama endorsements of note: Rep. Rafael Anchia (representing Dallas), Rep. Charlie Gonzalez (representing the San Antonio area), and Northern Virginia Rep. James Moran (this last one, it seems, might actually hurt Obama.) Sen. Obama also seems to have made fans across the aisle in former Secretary of State Colin Powell and former Senator Lincoln Chafee. Meanwhile, checking in on the Big Three of remaining endorsements (that is, presuming Speaker Pelosi stays neutral until a candidate is decided):

Al Gore: Every few days a rumor circulates from the Clinton campaign side that Al Gore is set to endorse Obama. But, despite “unbelievable” animus reported between the Clintons and Gores, no word from the Nobel Prize-winner yet. Presumably, he’s waiting because either [a] he doesn’t want to endanger his post-partisan cachet or [b] he senses the Democratic Party might need people who seem above the fray to broker a pre-convention deal. Either way, it doesn’t seem like he’ll be getting involved anytime soon. Update: CNN reconfirms: Gore sources say he’s staying out of it.

John Edwards: Here’s where a lot of the attention seems to be at the moment, given that a Thursday meeting between Clinton and Edwards leaked, and a planned Obama-Edwards meeting today was postponed. At the moment, media speculation seems to be that Edwards’ endorsement is truly up for grabs, although as I said here, given his previous statements about Clinton’s “status quo” campaign, I’d think he’d have to be leaning toward Obama (or risk losing quite a bit of credibility.) In their report on the Clinton-Edwards meet, CNN said that two friends of Elizabeth Edwards said she preferred Obama. If that’s true, that would seem to clinch it, but one never knows, and now “sources close to the Edwards family flatly deny that she favors one candidate over the other.“

Russ Feingold: Sen. Feingold, whose endorsement may well carry more weight than that of Edwards (particularly in upcoming Wisconsin) has said he’s planning to endorse after the Feb. 19 primary. He’s previously been very critical of Edwards, and some see that playing a role in the Obama-Edwards discussions at the moment. Again, given the previous dust-ups between Feingold and Clinton, I’d think the Wisconsin Senator would be leaning Obama. But he’s spent a lot of time with both candidates, and he doesn’t look to be moving off the fence before the 19th, after which he may likely just follow the choice of his state.

In short, now that we’re past Super Tuesday, it seems the Big Guns mainly want to see how things will play out. Update: The Man Who Fell to Earth? Greg Sargent’s sources say Sen. Clinton is about to pick up a decently important endorsement in former Ohio Senator John Glenn. Hmm, that’s too bad. I’d have liked to have Sen. Glenn in our corner. Ah well, godspeed regardless.

Culver, Gregoire, Walz.

“Senator Obama has been fighting for ordinary Americans ever since he was a community organizer more than two decades ago. He has the unique combination of real life experience fighting for ordinary Americans, and the skill to bring Democrats, Republicans, and Independents together to get things done.” Sen. Obama picks up the endorsements of two more governors: Chet Culver of Iowa and Christine Gregoire of Washington. And, in related news, Minnesota Rep. (and superdelegate) Tim Walz backs Obama based on the Senator’s strong showing in Walz’s congressional district on Super Tuesday. “Last night at the Democratic caucuses, the voters of southern Minnesota overwhelmingly supported Sen. Barack Obama and his hopeful vision for positive change. As a superdelegate to the Democratic National Convention, I will honor their decision and support Sen. Obama.“

C’mon aboard, you won’t hurt the horse.

It’s the Friday before Super Tuesday, and no Edwards and no Gore…yet (and neither look to be choosing before Tuesday, if at all.) But some other big endorsements for Obama this morning:

Move On votes to endorse Obama, and will encourage its 1.7 million members in Super Tuesday states to follow suit. The movement said recently they’d back a primary candidate if two-thirds of their members agreed on one. “The vote favored Senator Obama to Senator Clinton by 70.4% to 29.6%.” Says Obama: “In just a few years, the members of MoveOn have once again demonstrated that real change comes not from the top-down, but from the bottom-up…I thank them for their support and look forward to working with their members in the weeks and months ahead.“

The California SEIU, 650,000 strong, has switched from Edwards to Obama. “Obama’s pledge to ensure working families have a strong voice, that health care is not a luxury and that our children are given the tools to succeed best represents the values that our members care about,” said Annelle Grajeda, president of the SEIU California State Council.“

CT Rep. Rosa DeLauro endorses Obama tomorrow, which is a big deal because she’s higher-profile in DC than most (her husband is also former Clinton pollster Stan Greenberg.) That being said, Connecticut’s biggest prize, Chris Dodd, is announcing today that he staying neutral.

Perhaps eyeing a Harlem rout for Obama, Charlie Rangel’s wife, Alma Rangel, endorses Obama for president. “I believe Barack Obama has the ability to unify this country and the character to stand up for what’s right instead of what’s popular. Barack is a man of principle, a man whose faith in the greatness of our nation gives us hope, showing us what’s possible if we work together.“

ABT principal ballerina Gillian Murphy endorses Obama for president. Good goin’, little sis.

The Yale Daily News foregoes their famous alumni and — like the Harvard Crimson — decides to back Obama. “[T]he time has come to abdicate Yalie rule over America, at least for now…An Obama presidency promises a reassertion of the natural, American optimism for which JFK stood, but also new reforms of which he could only have dreamt. Let us not let this moment slip away.“

George Clooney, already an Obama backer, speaks well of his candidate, but seems gunshy to stump for him (for legitimate reasons).

California’s Asianweek backs Obama: “A native Hawaiian, Obama’s personal and political background reflects the multicultural future of America. The energy Obama has ignited among young Asian Pacific American activists is unprecedented for presidential politics and could pave the way for future APA involvement.“

Word is that Bill Richardson won’t endorse anyone until after February 5. Given that my sense is he leans Clinton (although others argue he just wants a job either way), this is good news for Obama. Update: Bill and Bill will be Superbowl buddies. Doesn’t sound like he’s heading Obama’s way.

“‘This week helped me make up my mind between two great candidates – that I was going to be supporting Sen. Obama,’ Blumenauer said.” And other House endorsements of the past few days: “Reps. Jim Oberstar (D-Minn.) and Earl Blumenauer (D-Ore.) endorsed Sen. Barack Obama for president Friday…Reps. John Larson (D-Conn.), Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) and Earl Pomeroy (D-N.D.) all announced their backing for Obama on Thursday. Rep. Anna Eshoo (D-Calif.) endorsed him on Wednesday. All of their states except Oregon will vote Tuesday in the so-called ‘national primary.‘”

MI and FL: The Broker States?

“What has not been widely reported or discussed is how this decision by the Democratic Party changes the dynamics of the nomination process. They have reduced the total number of available delegates by 341 from 4049 to 3708. If they keep the required magic number of delegates to win the nomination at 2025 (50% +1), they have effectively required a successful candidate to garner 55% of the available delegates to win the nomination (2025/3708).“

Uh oh…A commenter over at Salon explains why the Michigan-Florida delegate issue might not go away anytime soon. Indeed, it may ensure — and determine the fate of — a brokered convention. “As explained above, in the democratic race, Edwards is siphoning off enough delegates to prevent either Barack or Clinton to sew up the nomination. The 341 unseated delegates from Michigan and Florida (8% of the total delegates) strengthen this effect considerably. The combined total of Edwards and the unseated delegates from Michigan and Florida is roughly 22% of all delegates leaving only 78% for Clinton and Obama to split. The loser will have to fall to 28% to leave 50% remaining for the winner.“

If this math is correct, and the race stays close in the weeks after Super Tuesday, it sounds like Michigan and Florida may well have to schedule do-overs. Or there’ll be blood on the floor at the convention, no matter how the MI-FL controversy shakes out. Update: This math, of course, is now moot…for obvious reasons.

Leahy and Durazo Aboard.

“‘We need a president who can reintroduce America to the world – and actually reintroduce America to ourselves. Barack Obama represents the America we once were and want to be again.” Sen. Patrick Leahy of Vermont endorses Barack Obama. “Leahy likened his support of Obama to the 1968 presidential campaign, when as a young prosecutor he endorsed Robert Kennedy over Hubert Humphrey. ‘He was bringing us a sense of hope, bringing us together,’ Leahy said. ‘I know those are intangibles, but it encouraged me to go against the establishment in my own state, and go with Bobby Kennedy.’“

And another potentially big Obama endorsement from yesterday: Maria Elena Durazo, head of the Los Angeles Federation of Labor. One expert said of Durazo: “There is no person in all of California who could get more people out to the street to go do something, either to march or get the vote out.” “When she discussed her endorsement with her son Michael, a senior at Cathedral High School in Los Angeles, he urged her to choose Obama. ‘He said, “In the end, Mom, it’s the chance of a lifetime.” For him to say that means a lot. It’s true.’”

Nelson and McCaskill Aboard.

Two more Senate endorsements for Obama: Sen. Ben Nelson of Nebraska and Sen. Claire McCaskill of Missouri. “Nelson, pledging his support for his Illinois colleague, said Obama has ‘the greatest potential to ending the bitterness and poisonous atmosphere in Washington.‘” Update: McCaskill’s statement.

The future is ours so let’s plan it, Janet.

“‘I think we need fresh voices and fresh messages of unity and coming together,’ Napolitano told the Post in a telephone interview. ‘I think he’s a new young voice who has new appeal, particularly for those of us in the West…He does bring the unique ability to excite, to bring young people into the process…and to attract independent voters.‘” Senator Obama picks up another (potentially) big endorsement in Arizona governor Janet Napolitano.