House Party! | The Senate in Sight…

Every single Dem incumbent returned to office. At least 26 more seats in the House. The nation’s first woman Speaker. Six new governorships. At least four Senate seats. And, if all goes well in Virginia (which, at 5am EST, is looking likely — Webb’s up 8,000, which is a pretty solid lead heading into a recount) and Montana (which seems positive for us, albeit less so — Tester’s up 5,000 with 85% reporting), perhaps even control of Congress…Yessir, all-in-all, it was a pretty grand night for us. So, Dubya and Karl…how you like them apples? Update: Make that 28 seats in the House and 5 in the Senate….soon to be six. Congress is ours!

Take Back the House!

Shady, harrassing “robocalls”, voter intimidation in Virginia, sketchy-acting electronic voting machines: yes, folks, it’s Election Day in America, and the frantic GOP are up to their usual bag of tricks. In the inimitable words of Baltimore Deputy Commissioner for Ops Bill Rawls: “American Democracy. Let’s show those Third World %@#$ how it’s done.

Regardless, each side has had their November Surprise (for the Left, Haggard’s hypocrisy; for the Right, Hussein’s hanging), and now — at long last — it’s showtime: Time to show “the decider” what we really think of him.

For what it’s worth, I can now personally guarantee at least one vote for the not-particularly-embattled Spitzer/Clinton/Rangel/Cuomo ticket. I even used an old-school levered voting machine, so mine should more likely than not get counted.

Predictions? Of course, I’d like to venture a 1994-like tidal wave, but I’ve been burned by too many election nights in the past. So I’ll play it relatively safe…the Dems win the House, picking up 18-22 seats, and gain four seats in the Senate: Missouri, Montana, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. (So long, Santorum!) It looked like control of the Senate might’ve hinged on the Allen-Webb race in Virginia, but now that Harold Ford seems to have faded in Tennessee (one has to wonder how much Corker’s gutterball ad helped him), a Dem Senate looks really unlikely. Still, I’d love to be surprised in both states.

Obviously not winning the House at this point would be a grievous blow for the party. But, whatever happens tonight, it has to be better than the last midterms.

The last two times I posted exit polls here (in 2000 and 2004), I’ve been led astray, but if I see anything good from the Senate races, I’ll post it below. In the meantime, the NYT has a quality election guide here, and there are a couple of good explanations of what to look for tonight here and here. On this end, I and several of my friends who’ve been burned over the last few election nights together will be huddled around the TV, yearning to breathe free. Hopefully, at long last, it’ll be our night.

But stay away from the interns.

“‘Republicans ‘are in such desperate shape,’ he said, ‘We don’t want to give them anything to grab on to.'” A spokesman for Nancy Pelosi says impeachment is currently off the table in the planning for a Democratic House.

The Dems Ascendant?

“‘This administration may be over,’ Lance Tarrance, a chief architect of the Republicans’ 1960s and ’70s Southern strategy, told a gathering of journalists and political wonks last week. ‘By and large, if you want to be tough about it, the relevancy of this administration on policy may be over.‘” Are we at the turn of the tide? As even committed conservatives and right-leaning observers start sticking a fork in the Dubya administration, newly confident Dems begin to prepare for a return of the House. Foremost in their plans is “a legislative blitz during their first week in power that would raise the minimum wage, roll back parts of the Republican prescription drug law, implement homeland security measures and reinstate lapsed budget deficit controls…a Democratic House would [also] launch a series of investigations of the Bush administration, beginning with the White House’s first-term energy task force and probably including the use of intelligence in the run-up to the invasion of Iraq.

Another Contender.

Harold Ford, Jr. joins the race to succeed Gephardt in the House. I dunno…I know Ford (House/Campaign/Funding) is considered a rising star in the party, but at 32 he seems a bit young and inexperienced to take on the mantle of leadership. I’d still pick Pelosi over Ford, and both over Frost, given the latter’s left-baiting yesterday. (“I think that her politics are to the left…”) Update: Frost is out, meaning barring a major upset Nancy Pelosi is the new House leader.

Charting the Future.


The battle lines are drawn in the race to succeed Gephardt: Martin Frost v. Nancy Pelosi. Frost (House/Campaign/Funding) is a Texas moderate, Pelosi (House/Campaign/Funding) a California liberal. Neither overwhelm me with their progressive credentials (education, campaign finance reform, voting rights, etc.), but from what I read of the two here I guess I prefer Pelosi, particularly given the fact that, while Pelosi seems to support McCain-Feingold, Frost apparently tried to stop Shays-Meehan, the House arm of the bill. Pelosi might be easier for the GOP to pigeonhole as a “paleoliberal,” but I need more evidence that Frost wants the Dems to be anything more than GOP lite. Advantage Pelosi, for now.