Author: KcM

Kerry Nation and Shoeless Joe.

Seven states across the nation up for grabs last night, and five go to John Kerry. On the flip side, Joe Lieberman finally faced the music and bowed out of the race (So much for that “three-way tie” in NH.)

Well, call me an establishment sellout, but I’m close to putting this one in the fridge. I was glad to see Edwards take my and his home big, but I think Clark’s ekeing out of Oklahoma will hurt Carolina’s Finest on the momentum front. (That being said, Edwards is looking like a grand Veep.) And Dean, well, his 0-7 strategy was a gamble anyway, but I personally don’t believe he’s hitting the right notes to make a comeback anymore. Kerry a Republican? That’s just plain goofy. I’m all for running on campaign finance reform, of course, and I agree with Mark Shields that Dean’s made an enormous contribution in that regard…but I think spinning the “outsider” rhetoric just for the sake of it is lame. (Might as well say “Vote for me! I won’t know what the hell I’m doing for the first two years of my administration!”) Besides, it’s hard to run as the outsider who’ll change the insidious culture of Washington once you’ve nestled the likes of Al Gore to your breast. I’ll still put up Gore’s primary performance last cycle as an order of magnitude more shady than anything that’s gone down this time around.

So, if Kerry’s our horse, I’m ready to circle the wagons. He’s already up ten on Bush according to Gallup. And, having just seen California freak-show Darrell Issa on late-night CNN frantically go the “Dukakis Dukakis Dukakis” route, I’d say we have a real chance to win this thing. Between this and the atrocious State of the Union, I’m starting to get the sense we’ve been grossly overestimating Karl Rove’s political savvy. And, if the Big 47 holds up…it means trouble for the GOP that even Rehnquist, Scalia et al can’t solve this time. Bring it on.

An Historic Lull.

Ok, so it’s been quiet around here again. The freelance textbook project that I thought was almost over turned out to be far from it. But now, after another week of hellaciously long days, I can almost see the Shire, the Brandywine River, Gandalf’s fireworks, etc. etc. again. Meanwhile, on the orals scene, my original date – March 4 – got torpedoed by conflicting schedules on my panel, and it now looks like I won’t be able to amass the entire posse again until early April. So, at any rate, both of these recent developments should lend themselves to more posting here, provided there’s something more interesting to talk about than the ridiculous national outrage over Janet’s stunt nipple. Stay tuned.

Last two to fall.

It’s a fire sale on coaches in the Atlantic division, with New Jersey’s Byron Scott and Boston’s Jim O’Brien leaving their franchises on the same day (This means that every Atlantic division coach has been replaced this year.) Well, between Allan Houston’s bum knee and the Knicks clutching with bloody fingernails to the eight spot, I’m all for some Eastern conference turmoil right about now.

Academy Fight Song.

And in another campaign news, the Oscar contenders have been announced, with RotK leading the pack:

Best Picture: Lord of the Rings: Return of the King. After three years of waiting, after A Beautiful Mind and Chicago, it’s payback time. Check out the spiffy New Line awards site, featuring some choice RotK clips.

Best Actor: What on earth is Johnny Depp doing in here? I’m a Depp fan too, but c’mon now. At any rate, I’m definitely rooting for Bill Murray for Lost in Translation, but could see Mystic River‘s Sean Penn picking it up too.

Best Actress: Haven’t seen it yet, but Charlize Theron in Monster has all the buzz, and it would take a better man than I to challenge the formidable power of best-actress-oscar-buzz.

Best Supporting Actor: Tim Robbins, Mystic River. I would’ve liked to see Sean “Samwise” Astin get a nod, but am glad that Ken Watanabe of The Last Samurai made it in.

Best Supporting Actress: Renee Zellweger, Cold Mountain, ho-hum. I’m surprised Mystic River‘s Marcia Gay Harden got a nod here after winning just a few years ago. Spread the love, people.

Best Director: PJ for RotK. The only real challenge is Sofia Coppola, and she’ll get hers in the Screenplay category.

Screenplay (Original): A la Quentin Tarantino, Sofia Coppola will win for Lost in Translation.

Screenplay (Adapted): This will probably be one of the few categories where RotK loses out (The best adaptation of the three was Fellowship, and that really should’ve won two years ago.) American Splendor, perhaps? They’re going to want to give something to City of God.

Howard’s End?

So…New Hampshire has spoken, and John Kerry wins by 12 over fellow New Englander Howard Dean, Clark and Edwards tie for a distant third, and Lieberman falls to fifth. The game now shifts to the South and Midwest, including South Carolina.

Well, while it’s a bit off-putting to put this race in the fridge after only two states have spoken, I say it’s now definitely looking to be John Kerry’s year. That is, barring a strong showing by John Edwards on more favorable terrain, who has to win South Carolina convincingly next week to stay alive. As everyone’s known for months, Lieberman is clearly done, despite his ridiculous talk of a three-way tie for third in NH. (So much for the vote-swinging ability of the New Republic.) Wesley Clark may be able to pick up Oklahoma, but momentum counts for a lot, and he was fading fast all last week. So, barring something crazy happening, I’d say the general is also on his way out.

And Dean? Well, obviously he’s still got a large war chest and the frenzy of the Deaniacs to fall back on…but where does he go from here? The pre-NH polls have him dropping to fourth or fifth in every one of the polled February 3rd states, except New Mexico (and even that’s based on pre-Iowa numbers.) It’d be one thing if he had pulled closer to Kerry in New Hampshire, or even to within ten points, but a twelve-point loss is pretty decisive in terms of being a momentum-killer. (Consider in 2000 that Bradley got to within four points (52%-48%) of Gore in NH, something that was also spun by the pundit class as a “still-kicking” comeback after Iowa, and he got hammered in all 15 states the Tuesday next.) As Chris Suellentrop notes, Dean’s only hope may be to go “underground” for awhile, but it’s hard to see how a hail-mary play like that will have generated much mojo once the big states actually vote. It’s remarkable how Dean and Kerry switched places so quickly, but they did…and just as Kerry would be toast had he not won New Hampshire, the same now looks true for the governor of Vermont.

Examine Nunnery.

Though this be madness, yet there is method in’t. By way of my sis-in-law Lotta, the Hamlet text adventure game. How cool is this? I look forward to playing it through once I finish up my freelance work. Here’s a tip…don’t jump out of Ophelia’s window. Update: Ok, I got distracted and went ahead and beat the game. It’s pretty clever, except for one really dumb and annoying puzzle that involves screaming a word in a theater. I used the hint to beat it…and the author basically admits that he intended it that way. Oh well, other than that one hiccup, it’s great text-adventure fun.

The Fighting 47.

In the midst of the battle for New Hampshire, a glimmer of great news. A new Newsweek poll has Kerry up 3 on Dubya in a head-to-head match-up. And the key stat isn’t Kerry, per se: All four major Dems poll well against the Prez (Clark down 1, Edwards down 3, Dean down 5.) No, what’s cause for cheer here is the breakdown: 47% of voters strongly oppose a second term for Bush (and 52% say they don’t want him back in general.) That’s compared to 37% of voters strongly in the Bush camp. With those kind of strong negatives, much of Dubya’s financial advantage is neutralized — all the money in the world isn’t going to change the minds of people who’ve already decided they hate you. And this means that, state-by-state electoral math notwithstanding, the Dems only have to sway 4% of the electorate between now and November, give or take a percentage point to account for more Florida-type shenanigans by the GOP.

Along those lines, the Republicans shift their attention to Kerry, while conservatives fret over their standard-bearer‘s right-wing cred. I’m sure y’all can get Pat Buchanan to run again…

Meanwhile, in NH news, the consistently insufferable Mickey Kaus points the way to Chrisishardcore, a young statistician who’s teased out daily movement from the three-day ARG polls (this is the information the talking heads have when they make their predictions.) At any rate, yesterday’s poll shows a bounce back for Dean, who looks to probably come in second by these numbers. Elsewhere, the Wyeth Wire, a SC political mail-list to which I subscribe, does the same thing for Carolina.