Recently in North Korea Category
"It's a truism that Barack Obama faces the most intractable set of challenges that any president has faced in at least 50 years. But on a few issues in foreign and military policy, he's caught a break. Whether by luck, the effect of his election, or President George W. Bush's stepped-up drive to win last-minute kudos, Obama will enter the White House with some paths to success already marked, if not quite paved." Having covered six diplomatic priorities for Obama right after the election (the link was buried in this post), Slate's Fred Kaplan takes a gander at five foreign policy arenas primed for good news under the coming administration.
"This can be a moment of opportunity for North Korea. If North Korea continues to make the right choices, it can repair its relationship with the international community -- much as Libya has done over the past few years. If North Korea makes the wrong choices, the United States and our partners in the six-party talks will respond accordingly." In a Rose Garden statement yesterday, Dubya announces the lifting of trading sanctions against North Korea, on account of Pyongyang seemingly agreeing to nuclear disarmament as outlined in recent multilateral talks. But don't get the wrong idea, folks: Talking to our enemies is still an act of horrible, dirty appeasement. Update: Slate's Fred Kaplan surveys the deal.
In a welcome bit of good news on the international front, negotiators strike a deal in North Korea that lays down a plan for nuclear disarmament by Kim Jong Il's regime. But all is not rosy yet: "In a harbinger of the potential for difficulties ahead, the official North Korean news agency said the agreement required only a temporary suspension of the country's nuclear facilities...The agreement also seemed likely to face opposition in Washington by conservatives who remain unconvinced that the North Korean leader, Kim Jong Il, ever intends to relinquish his nuclear weapons. Similarly, the Bush administration faced criticism from Democrats who charge the administration that broke away from the Agreed Framework in 2002 ended up five years later with a roughly similar accord."
Meanwhile, in related but considerably more depressing news, a European Union report argues that it is now too late to prevent Iran from developing its own nuclear weaponry. "The admission is a blow to hopes that a deal with Iran can be reached and comes at a sensitive time, when tensions between the US and Tehran are rising. Its implication that sanctions will prove ineffective will also be unwelcome to EU diplomats."
"Sen. John McCain has skidded his Straight Talk Express off the highway into a gopher's ditch of slime." As Dubya rejects bilateral talks with N. Korea, Slate's Fred Kaplan puts the lie to John McCain's recent attempt to carry water for the Bushies on the Korean nuclear issue. "McCain's version of history goes beyond 'revisionism' to outright falsification. It is the exact opposite of what really happened."
"So, here we are. The two major powers in this confrontation are led by blunderers; the provocateur is a chronic miscalculator. It doesn't look good." Oh, so there's the WMD: As John Bolton pushes for aggressive sanctions at the UN against the Kim Jong-Il regime, Slate's Fred Kaplan parses several ugly scenarios that could unfold after North Korea's nuclear gamble on Monday (the same day, coincidentally, that South Korean Ban Ki-moon won official Security Council backing to replace Kofi Annan. Looks like he'll be working overtime right out of the box.) By the way, if you're keeping score at home, Dubya & co. now seem to have grievously mishandled all three prongs of the "axis of evil" trifecta. Sigh. That's great, it starts with an earthquake...
"'It's difficult to think of many other times and many other presidencies when so many dangerous events were happening at once,' says Wendy Sherman, a State Department official under President Clinton. 'But there's so much going on in every global hot spot because the Bush Administration really opened up Pandora's box with little-to-no plans to support their actions.'" TIME Magazine composes a cover story obit for the Bush doctrine. Good riddance: "As it turns out, Iraq may prove to be not only the first but also the last laboratory for preventive war. Instead of deterring the rulers in Tehran and Pyongyang, the travails of the U.S. occupation may have emboldened those regimes in their quest to obtain nuclear weapons while constraining the U.S. military's ability to deter them."
"George Bush's luck hasn't run out just yet. North Korea's Fourth of July missile fizzle is the biggest diplomatic break that the president has caught all term -- and the biggest setback ('catastrophe' wouldn't be too strong a word) that his most-loathed nemesis, Kim Jong-il, has suffered in years." Slate's Fred Kaplan sees good news for the US in yesterday's North Korean rocket launch, as, in effect, "Kim Jong-il shook the dice and rolled craps." Still, "[w]hat happens next is worthy of nail-biting."
A belated happy 230th Independence Day to you and yours, and here's hoping the recent spate of scary news (North Korean missiles, incipent war in Gaza) didn't detract too much from the festivities in your parts. (Also, with regards to more joyous fourth of july rocket launches, congrats to the crew of Discovery STS-121 on a successful return to space yesterday.)
"It's ironic that President Bush is now endorsing a diplomatic stance toward Iran so similar to the stance that President Clinton took toward North Korea. When he first took office, Bush so feverishly opposed the Agreed Framework with North Korea in large part because Clinton had produced it." Slate's Fred Kaplan wonders whether President Clinton's Agreed Framework with North Korea might help to contain Iran. The verdict? Possibly maybe, particularly given that we have no real alternatives.
By way of a friend, the State Department releases its mandated yearly human rights report for 2005 (here), finding cause for alarm in Iran, Russia, China, Venezuela, Burma, North Korea, Belarus and Zimbabwe and (surprise, surprise) progress in Iraq and Afghanistan. The report doesn't delve into human rights violations here at home (although China tries to fill that gap in response every year), but it does unequivocally state -- in bold, no less -- that "countries in which power is concentrated in the hands of unaccountable rulers tend to be the world's most systematic human rights violators." Hey y'all might be on to something. Deadpans the head of Amnesty International: "The Bush administration's practice of transferring detainees in the 'war on terror' to countries cited by the State Department for their appalling human rights records actually turns the report into a manual for the outsourcing of torture."
"It's a significant breakthrough. But it could easily have been accomplished two and a half years ago, had President George W. Bush been willing...Had he signed this rather innocuous joint statement back then (it wouldn't have harmed our national interest to forgo an option -- invading North Korea -- that we were never going to exercise in the first place), the next steps toward an arms-control treaty would have been much easier than they will be now." Slate's Fred Kaplan realistically assesses the good news -- and work ahead -- in North Korea.
Unfortunately, the diplomatic savvy on display in this surreptitious Iraq transfer hasn't extended to other world hotspots, as Kaplan notes with North Korea. "By his own careless arrogance," writes Kaplan, Dubya "has stunningly mishandled this confrontation. He has allowed North Korea—the most rickety spoke on his "axis of evil," a dangerous regime by any measure -- to reach the crest of becoming a nuclear power. He has dismissed numerous opportunities to nip this disaster in the bud. And now he comes up with an old formula that evades the recent shift in the balance." (The disarmament deal proffered by the Bushies now is insubstantially different from the one suggested by President Clinton a decade ago, the one pooh-poohed by Dubya upon his arrival into the Oval Office.)
