Recently in Superdelegates Category

After Sen. Clinton gets toxic and ridiculous over Michigan and Florida -- In a clear attempt to poison the well (and fire up the smoke machine), she compared the DNC's decision to adhere to the rules she herself agreed to (when it suited her) to Election 2000, Zimbabwe, and the civil rights movement -- her aides, fundraisers, and husband try to foist Sen. Clinton as Obama's veep. But Rural Votes' Al Giordano says hold up: "The Field can now confirm, based on multiple sources, something that both campaigns publicly deny: that Senator Clinton has directly told Senator Obama that she wants to be his vice presidential nominee, and that Senator Obama politely but straightforwardly and irrevocably said 'no.' Obama is going to pick his own running mate based on his own criteria and vetting process."

In the meantime, regarding delegates: Obama picked up two more Edwards delegates and supers Pilar Lujan (GU) and Rep. Dennis Cardoza (CA) crossed paths switching (Lujan to Clinton, Cardoza to Obama.) Also for Obama since the last update: Rep. Jim Costa (CA), Rep. Jim Courtney (CT), and DNC members Scott Brennan (IA), Jenny Greenleaf (OR), and Wayne Dowdy (MS). (In the meantime, Clinton picked up 2 more UADs from Ohio and Massachusetts.) Thus, the most recent tally: Obama +7, Clinton +2. Sen. Obama is now 57 delegates away from the (current) magic number of 2025.

Welcome from the land of boxes, and, if you live in Kentucky or Oregon, please consider voting for Barack Obama today. I expect updates will be sparser than usual this week on account of my imminent move, but, to catch up on recent electoral goings-on: Since the last super update, Sen. Obama has picked up the endorsement of Sen. Robert Byrd, Rep. Madeleine Bordallo (GU), DNC members Greg Pecoraro (MD), Larry Gates (KS), Blake Johnson (AK), Dwight Pelz (WA), and Cindy Spanyers (AK), and 3 UADs (2 in California, 1 in Kansas). (In the meantime, Sen. Clinton has picked up 3 Cali UADs.)

So, that's Clinton +3, Obama + 10 and Warren Buffett. The upshot being, however much tiptoeing is going on at the moment, Sen. Obama should wrap this thing up for good tonight when he takes 50% +1 of the pledged delegates. And there will be much rejoicing.

Another day of endorsements for Sen. Obama: In today's batch so far, we have the inimitable Rep. Henry Waxman (CA), Reps. Jim McDermott (WA) and Howard Berman (CA), and DNC member Larry Cohen (DC).

In addition, yesterday's Edwards endorsement brings in 6 of Edwards' pledged 19 delegates (so far), as well as the endorsement of the United Steelworkers. For those playing at home, the Thursday count thus far: Obama +10.

Update: It now looks like eight Edwards delegates have defected, and word is a recanvass in NC has given one of Clinton's delegates to Obama. So, today's new count: Obama +13, Clinton -1.

As expected, Sen. Clinton wins the Mountain State handily, taking West Virginia 67%-26%, with 7% For Edwards. (Her main key to victory: The 71% of the WV electorate without a college degree broke for her 71%-29%.) But, alas for Sen. Clinton's hopes for a miracle comeback, this is basically the equivalent of a garbagetime touchdown. And, worse still for Team Clinton, a new poll has Sen. Obama up 20 in the significantly larger state of Oregon, and the supers continue to move toward the presumptive nominee regardless. Today's haul thus far: Obama +3.5. (Rep. Peter Visclosky (IN), DNC member Awais Kaleel, OK State Senator Mike Morgan, WI State Sen. Lena Taylor, and Dem Abroad Christine Marques against a Tennessee UAD for Clinton.)

The night's big political news, however, happened down in Mississippi. In an upset that has stunned and demoralized the RNC, Democrat Travis Childers wins a special election going away, 54-46%, in a strong-conservative district that voted 62-37% for Dubya in 2004. Childers is not only the third Dem to win a safe-GOP district in recent months (following Bill Foster in IL and Don Cazayoux in LA), he was also explicitly painted as an elitist pro-Wright, prObama Dem by the Mississippi GOP. So how's that for an electability argument? (To be fair, Dick Cheney also showed up to stump for Childers' opponent...that might've helped us too.)

With all due respect to the Magnolia State, if the Republicans' tired culture-war strategy didn't play in the most conservative parts of Ole Miss, it's not going to play anywhere this year...not even in West Virginia.

Well, West Virginia and Kentucky may not be on board, but the supers are continuing to flock to Sen. Obama en masse. Recent pickups: Sen. Daniel Akaka (HI), Reps. Harry Mitchell (AZ) and Tom Allen (ME), UAD Dave Regan (OH), and DNC members Crystal Strait (CA), Dolly Strazar (HI), Keith Roark (ID), Carol Burke (VI) and Kevin Rodriguez (VI). (Rodriguez is a switch, so that cancels out either Clinton's Mass. UAD or Rep. Ciro Rodriguez (TX). The final tally since last update: Obama +9, Clinton +1, meaning, by everyone's count, Obama is now in the super lead.

Update: Tuesday morning brings another slew of supers to Obama: UAD Mayor Ray Nagin (LA) of Katrina fame, Rep. Joe Donnelly (IN), former Governor Roy Romer (CO), and DNC member Anita Bonds (DC). And, in a cruel irony given their earlier stated strategy to peel them off, the Clinton camp lost a pledged delegate this morning: Jack Johnson (MD). The morning tally: Obama +5, Clinton -1...that should help to salve tonight's probable 12-delegate pickup for HRC.

"'She has unleashed the gates of hell,' a longtime party leader told me. 'She's saying, "He's not one of us."'" As even former Clinton supporters look aghast at yesterday's transparent race-baiting, the supers begin to break in force for Sen. Obama. Adding to the two (Reps. Brad Miller of NC and Rick Larsen of WA) yesterday, Obama picks up Reps. Peter DeFazio of OR and Mazie Hirono of HI, DNC members Vernon Watkins (CA), Wilber Lee Jeffcoat (SC), John Gage (MD), Pilar Lujan (Guam), Ernest Espinoza (CA), and NM add-on Laurie Weahkee. In addition, Clinton's one pick-up (Rep. Chris Carney of PA, following his district) is erased by the defection of Rep. Donald Payne of NJ.

Taken altogether, this means Sen. Obama has picked up +11 to Clinton's +0 since the last update, putting him finally in the superdelegate lead. In addition, John Edwards, despite his recent claim of neutrality, now suggests he voted Obama, and even Clinton canary-in-the-coalmine Rahm Emanuel is now calling Obama "the presumptive nominee," even if he says he's not endorsing yet. In other words, the party is now backing Obama, and the Fat Lady is practicing her scales. (Clinton, of course, remains in denial.) Update: One more, Joe Johnson, DNC-VA.) Update 2: And a Saturday UAD, from Utah, Kristi Cumming. The next batch of UADs named (NY, OH) should lean Clinton, though.

Just to do this properly, Sen. Obama wins North Carolina by 14 and comes within 2 in Indiana, effectively ending the race for the Democratic nomination. (Yes, it was already over, but now it's really, really over.) When I got home late last night, Clinton had cancelled all of her public appearances, and it seemed reality had finally set in. But, no, word this morning is she will press on, and continue to burn money and goodwill for no apparent reason. Still, even if her campaign remains gracelessly in denial, I'd expect high-profile Clinton supporters will soon close the deal for her regardless. (Former Clinton backer George McGovern, for one, has now switched to Obama and is urging her concession.) So, the upshot is we're done here, folks. It's all over but the cryin'. And Senator Barack Obama of Illinois is our Democratic nominee.

Update: Sen. Obama picks up four more supers (one formerly a Clinton supporter, so it's Obama +5 to Clinton's +1), while Sen. Clinton's Senate backers start looking for the exit. And May 20 is the new May 6.

"I'm not going to put my lot in with economists." As TPM noted, we seem to have finally reached the point where there are "no more sharks left to jump." For alas, Sen. Clinton's final, fraying tether to the reality-based community (and my general election vote, not that she'll be getting that far anyway) gave up its last this weekend, as she -- in defiance of her usual m.o. and very much in the manner of Dubya and the GOP -- deemed universal opposition to her gas tax pander to be merely a figment of "elite opinion". (She's also doubled down on her anti-Obama gas tax ads.) As Robert Reich noted: "In case you’ve missed it, we now have a president who doesn’t care what most economists think. George W. Bush doesn’t even care what scientists think. He rejects all experts who disagree with his politics. This has led to some extraordinarily stupid policies." (Rabid Clinton partisan Paul Krugman, also a member of the elite-economist cabal, has yet to weigh in on his being cast down as an enemy of the people.)

As it turns out, one of the salt-of-the earth proles at the event (self-identified as an Obama voter making less than $25,000 a year) called Clinton out to her face for this blatant idiocy: "'I do feel pandered to when you talk about suspending the gas tax,' the woman said, adding: 'Call me crazy but I actually listen to economists because I think they know what they've studied.'" Clearly, this woman will be requiring significant reeducation. "'How can I help seeing what is in front of my eyes? Two and two are four.' 'Sometimes, Winston. Sometimes they are five. Sometimes they are three. Sometimes they are all of them at once. You must try harder. It is not easy to become sane.'" (Give Clinton credit: Her campaign has been a travesty, but it's been great fodder for Orwell references around here.)

In any case, regarding the big picture: Unfortunately for earlier hopes that we'd be done May 6, it's looking like tomorrow will almost assuredly bring a split, with NC for Obama and IN for Clinton. (That is, unless Zogby has finally broke out of its slump this cycle.) Meaning, of course, that Clinton will be even more mathematically eliminated. And yet, in all likelihood, we'll slog on to June 3. Yay. (With that in mind, each side picked up another super today: Kalyn Free of OK for Obama and Theresa Morelli of Dems Abroad for Clinton. But as Morelli only counts for 1/2 a vote, that's another 1/2-vote pick up for Obama.)

Update: make that two and a half: Obama picks up two more MD supers, Michael Cryor and Lauren Dugas-Glover. And it sounds like some of Clinton's CA supers are reconsidering their options.

Update 2: Apparently, economists still mattered in 1992.

Thank you, Hagatna: Sen. Obama wins the Guam presidential caucuses by seven votes, 50.1%-49.9%. (This means a 2-2 delegate split, but also puts Obama two closer to the magic number of 2025.)

On the super side, Obama picks up Brian Colon of NM, Inez Tenenbaum of SC, and Parris Glendening of MD (the latter two are UADs.) Clinton, meanwhile, gets Jaime Gonzalez of TX and Kathleen Kennedy Townsend of MD (also a UAD). So the day's super tally: Obama +3, Clinton +2. Adding 'em to the post-PA super count, that puts us at Obama 17, Clinton 11 (or Clinton down 23 from her needed 2-1 split.)

"'He has shown such mettle under fire,' Andrew said in the interview. 'The Jeremiah Wright controversy just reconfirmed for me, just as the gas tax controversy confirmed for me, that he is the right candidate for our party.'" A Clinton endorser since Day 1 of her candidacy, former DNC Chair Joe Andrew switches to Sen. Obama, and is ready for the fallout."If the campaign's surrogates called Governor Bill Richardson, a respected former member of President Clinton's cabinet, a 'Judas' for endorsing Senator Obama, we can all imagine how they will treat somebody like me. They are the best practitioners of the old politics, so they will no doubt call me a traitor, an opportunist and a hypocrite. I will be branded as disloyal, power-hungry, but most importantly, they will use the exact words that Republicans used to attack me when I was defending President Clinton." Heh.

Throw in DNC member John Patrick of Texas for Obama and AFL-CIO head John Olson of CT for Clinton and that puts our post-PA super count at Obama 11-5. Once you add the automatic add-ons from NY (Clinton +4) and IL (Obama +3), Clinton is down nineteen from her needed 2-1 split. Clinton -5, -10, -13, -19...anyone else noticing a pattern?

"The person I saw yesterday was not the person that I met 20 years ago. His comments were not only divisive and destructive, but I believe that they end up giving comfort to those who prey on hate, and I believe that they do not portray accurately the perspective of the black church. They certainly don't portray accurately my values and beliefs. And if Reverend Wright thinks that that's political posturing, as he put it, then he doesn't know me very well. And based on his remarks yesterday, well, I might not know him as well as I thought, either." After an unrepentant Jeremiah Wright ratcheted up the heat again at the National Press Club yesterday, thus bringing the punditariat to a full boil, an "outraged" and "saddened" Sen. Obama definitively cuts Wright loose.

A bit depressing that this had to go down, but, at this point, Obama really didn't have much choice. (Wright was practically begging for it, what with promoting the AIDS and Farrakhan stuff anew yesterday.) So, hopefully this helps bring an end to the sad diversion that was the Reverend Jeremiah Wright. Now, perhaps we can move on to other matters, such as the Rev. John Hagee and the "Strangelovian" obliteration of Iran...

Update: While we all mull the fallout from Wrightgate II, consider this: Sen. Obama picked up two more superdelegates today, Rep. Ben Chandler of Kentucky and DNC member Richard Machachek of Iowa. I believe that puts the post-PA total at 6 for Obama, 2 for Clinton, meaning Sen. Clinton is now a full 10 behind where she needs to be to stay "alive."

Update 2: Count three more supers for Clinton, and now three more for Sen. Obama. The new post-PA tally: 9 for Obama, 5 for Clinton, meaning Clinton is down 13 from her needed mark.

"To make progress, we must rise above the partisanship and the issues that divide us to find common ground. We must move the country in a dramatically new direction. I strongly believe Barack Obama is best positioned to lead the nation in that new direction." Along with Roger Waters and the Pink Floyd pig, Sen. Obama picks up another Senate super in New Mexico's Jeff Bingaman, thus putting him in the lead among his and Sen. Clinton's colleagues. Update: Clinton counters with NC Governor Mike Easley.

Meanwhile, over the weekend Matt Drudge ventured into the Wayback Machine to examine superdelegates' issues...with Bill Clinton in 1992. "'The voters haven't embraced Clinton, so I don't see any reason why I should endorse him,' Mr. Eckart said. 'Look at the exit polls. People have terrible doubts about this guy, and we're talking about Democrats.'" Cut to 2008, where, thanks to his recent transgressions, undeclared supers -- particularly African-American supers like my old rep, Jim Clyburn -- still don't think much of the man. "How do you play the race card on the ex-president of the United States? How do you do it? I would like to know how that's done and who they [are]. And I'd like to see these memos he's talking about. That's what's so bizarre about this,' Clyburn said". (Nor, it seems, is Pres. Clinton a fan of Obama, but that's not really surprising at this point, is it?)

"In an interview yesterday, Hillary -- whose connection to President Clinton's 2001 sentence commutations for two members of the Weather Underground has become an issue since she tried to raise questions about Obama's acquaintance with another ex-Weatherman -- told 'Inside Edition' that she 'didn't know anything about' the 2001 clemency case...If it's true, it means that she got the worst briefings in the world when she was running for Senate in 2000 and the clemency issue was hot in Rockland County, and it means that Chuck Schumer didn't even bother to mention the issue to his fellow NY senator-elect/ First Lady after promising the widows of two dead cops to fight against one of the clemencies." Following her recent attempt to make hay from the Weathermen, Sen. Clinton gets caught in another obvious lie. Oops.

Meanwhile, following on the two he picked up yesterday, Sen. Obama scores another superdelegate in Oregon rep David Wu. "'We need new policies both at home and abroad,' Wu said in a statement. 'Like Americans, the international community wants to see real change in America and I believe that Senator Obama embodies that change.'" As you probably know, Sen. Clinton needs the superdelegates to break 2-1 her way from now herein for the comeback math to make any sense at all. So, since Pennsylvania (1 for Clinton, 3 for Obama), she's already 5 down on where she needs to be.

"Voters are getting tired of it; it is demeaning the political process; and it does not work. It is past time for Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton to acknowledge that the negativity, for which she is mostly responsible, does nothing but harm to her, her opponent, her party and the 2008 election." Disgusted by recent events, such as the Osama ad and the warnings of "obliteration", the NYT editorial board for all intent and purposes unendorses Sen. Clinton.

Meanwhile, Sen. Obama open the post-PA era with another super endorsement, Gov. Brad Henry of OK. "Senator Obama understands that the serious concerns facing average Americans must transcend partisan games if we are to rise to the challenges of today and tomorrow. He is a strong, committed and inspirational leader, ideally suited to bring together Democrats, independents and Republicans," Henry said." Update: Clinton gets one too: Tennessee Congressman John Tanner, while Obama counters with 49 high-profile Edwards supporters in NC.

"'It was one of the worst political meetings I have ever attended,' one superdelegate said." From denial to anger? Bill Clinton goes off the rails at a superdelegate gathering in California, after a question about the Bill Richardson endorsement. "It was as if someone pulled the pin from a grenade. 'Five times to my face (Richardson) said that he would never do that,' a red-faced, finger-pointing Clinton erupted." Meanwhile, it comes out that, while trying to woo Gov. Richardson, Sen. Clinton repeatedly emphasized her view her view that Obama is a general-election loser: "He cannot win, Bill. He cannot win." She didn't say why she thought this, although one can presume.

Fortunately, more and more supers don't share the Clintons' dim view of the American electorate. Recent announcements of note: Montana super John Melcher, Wyoming Gov. Dave Freudenthal, and, if you read between the lines, former president Jimmy Carter: ""My children and their spouses are pro-Obama. My grandchildren are also pro-Obama. As a superdelegate, I would not disclose who I am rooting for, but I leave you to make that guess." Also, New Jersey Gov. John Corzine, like Cantwell before him, began laying the groundwork for a Clinton-to-Obama switch on CNBC this morning, although he retained some degree of plausible deniability [video.]

Update: The Clinton campaign attempts to elide her unelectable remark, now arguing that [a] Obama is in fact electable and [b] Richardson said it first.

"I have no intention of stopping until we finish what we started and until we see what happens in the next 10 contests and until we resolve Florida and Michigan. And if we don't resolve it, we'll resolve it at the convention -- that's what credentials committees are for." As the press fully and finally catches up with the fact that it's over -- it only took a month, but, hey, math is hard! -- Sen. Clinton digs in for the long haul (and liberally plays the gender card anew), announcing she's staying in until a convention floor fight in August...which, by the way, she'll assuredly lose.

Their hand thus forced, more supers emerge for Sen. Obama, including Sen. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota and, sometime soon, seven House members from North Carolina. And, with the Gallup tracking poll disparity as big as it's ever been (thanks in part to Snipergate, one presumes), I'm guessing Sen. Clinton's fundraising also might be taking a hit. As such, I'm still of the opinion that this will all end May 6 or soon thereafter. Or, at least, that's my hope. This is not 'Nam, Sen. Clinton, this is politics. There are rules.

By the way, if anyone is under the impression that I'm so in the bag for Sen. Obama that no discouraging word about him shall ever be posted here at GitM, I'll say this: This man should never bowl in public ever again. 37? That's really sad. (And how did Bob Casey become a Senator from Pennsylvania bowling only a 71? I'm no Walter Sobchak, but I can't remember bowling under an 80 since the age of ten.) Please, Senator, at least until the election, stick with making baskets.

Update: The Obama campaign pushes back on the WSJ's NC supers story. So apparently the joint endorsement of those seven Reps is not as imminent as reported.

Sen. Obama picks up a Pennsylania superdelegate in Senator Bob Casey, who had previously pledged to stay neutral. "Obama strategists hope that Casey can help their candidate make inroads with the white working-class men who are often referred to as "Casey Democrats." This group identifies with the brand of politics Casey and his late father, a former governor, practiced -- liberal on economic issues but supportive of gun rights and opposed to abortion."

"'If we have a candidate who has the most delegates and the most states,' the Democratic party should come together around that candidate, Cantwell said. The pledged delegate count will be the most important factor, she said, because that is the basis of the nominating process." Senator and Clinton superdelegate Maria Cantwell (D-WA) says she'll vote for the pledged delegate leader in the end, meaning -- barring a political meltdown of historic proportions -- Sen. Obama. If this steadfast commitment to the actual rules represents a trend among her super support -- and it likely does, despite the electoral vote Hail Mary -- Clinton's in real trouble. This also further supports Chris Bowers' recent argument that the Democratic race will end on or soon after May 6, the day Sen. Obama most likely crosses the threshold of 1627 pledged delegates (a.k.a. 50% + 1 of the pledged total.)

Update: Add unaffiliated super and Tennessee Governor Phil Bredesen to those leaning Obama in the final analysis. "Bredesen also joined House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) in warning that superdelegates should not overturn the outcome from primaries and caucuses." And Harry Reid, at least, also seems to think there's an exit strategy before the convention: "I had a conversation with...[Howard] Dean today. Things are being done." Update 2: Uncommitted and Clinton supers are not amused. Update 3: See also Clinton super Joe Andrew.

"In Washington, there's no happier situation for a politician than to be doing absolutely nothing and getting great press for it. But let's be clear about one thing: keeping their powder dry profits the superdelegates, but comes at the expense of their party. It shouldn't take Solomon to see that." The Atlantic's Josh Green argues that the superdelegates should get cracking on their decision, if they're serious about a long race hurting the Dems.

And, in related news, Sen. Clinton picks up her first two superdelegates in a month: DNC rep DNC rep. Pat Maroney of WV and, more notably, Rep. John Murtha of PA. Murtha, a.k.a. "the Pork King," has not only been an enemy to ethics reform, but has a litany of shady scandals to his name, from Abscam to PAID. (Not for nothing did CREW name him one of the 20 most corrupt representatives in Congress.) And, of course, Murtha led the House in earmarks last year, clocking in at $162 million (thanks to his gig as the Appropriations Defense Subcommittee Chairman.) So, given that he's part of the problem and not part of the solution, I'm not at all surprised he's chosen to endorse the candidate who's rife in lobbyist money and who won't release her own earmarks. That's one super you can have, Sen. Clinton.

"'A key question to me is how the candidates would affect the down-ballot races,' said Steven Achelpohl, the Democratic state chairman in Nebraska. 'I think Obama would have a more positive impact on our other races out here in Nebraska.'" The NYT surveys the general mood among undecided supers at the moment, and finds them mostly nervous and looking for closure. "While many superdelegates said they intended to keep their options open as the race continued to play out over the next three months, the interviews suggested that the playing field was tilting slightly toward Mr. Obama in one potentially vital respect. Many of them said that in deciding whom to support, they would adopt what Mr. Obama’s campaign has advocated as the essential principle: reflecting the will of the voters." Good. I figured the opinion that Oregon super Bill Bradbury voiced in the WP would not be a common one, and particularly now that Pelosi has weighed in to the contrary.

"'If the votes of the superdelegates overturn what's happened in the elections,' said Pelosi, 'it would be harmful to the Democratic Party.'" Following up on her recent dismissals of the so-called "dream ticket", Speaker Nancy Pelosi reaffirms that the pledged delegate leader (i.e. Obama) will be the supers' choice for nominee. "But what if one candidate has won the popular vote and the other candidate has won the delegates?" asked Stephanopoulos. 'But it's a delegate race,' Pelosi replied. 'The way the system works is that the delegates choose the nominee.'" Game, set, and match.

With a six-week lull between now and the next contest, during which I hope to spend more time focusing on Harold Ickes than on Harold Ickes (sorry, dissertation humor), now's a good chance to buck Mark Penn and refocus on the macrotrends in the primary race right now:

For one, superdelegates are clearly trending towards Obama. "Among the 313 of 796 superdelegates who are members of Congress or governors, Clinton has commitments from 103 and Obama is backed by 96, according to lists supplied by the campaigns. Fifty-three of Obama's endorsements have come since he won the Jan. 3 Iowa caucuses, compared with 12 who have aligned with Clinton since then...[Since Ohio/Texas] the Illinois senator has won backing from nine superdelegates and Clinton one, according to the campaigns and interviews." (Speaking of which, he picked up another one today in Wisconsin's Melissa Schroeder. As you probably know, you can keep track of the supers over at DemConWatch.)

For another, whatever sound and fury Mark Penn tries to kick up about Pennsylvania and electability, it's a tale told by an idiot, signifying nothing. In the most recent general election poll of the state, Obama still does better than Clinton against McCain there (although, thanks to all the recent negative press, McCain has moved ahead of both since this poll.) To his credit, Clinton supporter and Pennsylvania Governor Ed Rendell, off-message once again, today conceded Obama can take PA over McCain. (And in any case, as Michael Dukakis can tell you, past primary performance is often not a valid predictor of future outcomes.)

Otherwise, Obama is up in the daily trackers, although those tend to be volatile. Most importantly, obviously, Sen. Obama enjoys a sizable, if not insurmountable, lead in pledged delegates, votes, and states, so we're in very good shape, despite what ever sad butchering of reality emanates from Camp Clinton these days. So keep your chin up, y'all. If you got money, donate. If you got time, phonebank, write your supers, and/or get the message out. Let's press this thing home.

By the way, while looking for a good Penn-Microtrends link above, I found this NYT book review that begins with an anecdote about the TV show Numb3rs: "'There’s no way the bad guys can win,' my son assures me each time we watch the show together. 'They can’t do the math, Dad.'" Truer words have never been spoken.

How about a good, old-fashioned Democratic sex scandal? In a political shocker today, New York Governor, rising Dem star, and purported ethics champion Eliot Spitzer appears to have an affinity for prostitutes. More to come after Spitzer's press conference, but, really, what was he thinking? Spitzer was no Jimmy Walker -- He's cultivated his squeaky-clean public persona as a moral crusader since day one. That was his whole cachet. And given the enemies he's made, there was no way on God's green earth he was going to be able to keep that sort of thing quiet. It's sheer idiocy on his part. Update: "I am disappointed that I failed to live up to the standard I expected of myself." Spitzer makes a brief statement, and word comes out of a wiretap. Stick a fork in him, he's done.

Update 2: Within an hour of the story's leak, Gov. Spitzer gets unpersoned by Team Clinton, with all traces of his existence removed from Clinton's website. (He endorsed her back in May.) Which makes it as good a time as any to note that, if he resigns this evening as some expect, Sen. Clinton loses a superdelegate. His likely successor, Lt. Gov David Paterson, would be the Empire State's first (and America's third) black governor, as well as New York's first blind one. He is already a Clinton superdelegate (although, according to some reports, potentially a wavering one.) While on the subject, Obama picked up two more supers today regardless. Update 3: It doesn't seem Spitzer is resigning tonight.

"[It's] a humbling achievement, and I am very grateful for your support," Obama said in another fundraising appeal. "No campaign has ever raised this much in a single month in the history of presidential primaries. But more important than the total is how we did it — more than 90 percent of donations were $100 or less." The fundraising numbers for February are released, and Sen. Obama raised a record-breaking $55 million (i.e., a full $20 million more than Sen. Clinton.) In other good campaign news, Obama picked up three more supers today (to Clinton's one: Barbara Boxer.) And TPM's FlyontheWall explains why the 76 UADs (unpledged add-on delegates) further complicate Clinton's situation. Did I mention this was over?

Four days out from Zero Hour and as per the kitchen sink strategy, the Clinton campaign attempts a few more sad gambits to stay alive in the race...

"It's been a long, hard and difficult struggle to come to where I am now." I'll say...Rep. John Lewis officially switches to Obama. Also, North Dakota Sen. Byron Dorgan announced his backing of the Senator from Illinois today, bringing Obama's superdelegate total to 200. (He still lags behind Sen. Clinton by 56 in the supers category, but has picked up a net total of +34 since Super Tuesday.) Finally, if you're looking for more endorsements, there are at least 999,998 more of 'em out there: The Obama campaign reaches one million individual donors, and counting. Update: When Rep. Lewis says this was a tough decision for him, he wasn't kidding.

"I'm deeply proud to be the first 2008 Democratic presidential candidate to endorse Barack Obama," he added. "He is ready to be president. And I am ready to support him -- to work with him and for him and help elect him our 44th president." The beginning of the end? The end of the beginning? Senator and former presidential candidate Chris Dodd endorses Barack Obama. "It's now the hour to come together. This is the moment for Democrats and independents and others to come together, to get behind this candidacy." As I said in my pre-Iowa endorsement, Dodd was always my favorite of the "second tier," as it were, and I'm very glad he's decided to swing behind Sen. Obama. This isn't as big as Ted Kennedy, but, in terms of its symbolic import, it's bigger than most.

Asked why now, Dodd said: "'I don't want a campaign that is only divisive here, and there’s a danger of it becoming that. Not because the candidates want that, but too often the advisors the consultants others are seeking for that divisiveness.'"

Of the veepstakes: "Who would want to be vice president? I'd rather be chairman of the Senate Banking Committee."

Regarding Sen. Clinton's reaction: "'She was as gracious as she could be,' he said, noting she was 'obviously disappointed, maybe even something beyond disappointment,' but that she appreciated the call."" Update: Is Richardson next? And will John Lewis now formally switch?

"Barack Obama began his career in public service helping to restore opportunity to a community that was devastated by a steel plant closing, and he has been fighting for economic fairness ever since." Sen. Obama picks up another superdelegate endorsement in Ohio Teamsters president Sonny Nardi. According to Ohio's Buckeye State Blog: "This is a huge deal. Sure, it's a superdelegate pickup for Barack, but more importantly, it will open the flood gates. Ohio superdelegates leaning for Clinton or Obama are going to be more likely to come out now, because Nardi just gave them cover."

Update: According to DemConWatch, Sen. Obama also picked up a few more: Overseas superdelegate Connie Borde, PA super Leon Lynch, and Rep. Steve Kagen of WI. And, most importantly (as you'll see if you scroll down), Sen. Feingold moved further towards Obama, and voted for him last Tuesday. Update 2: AP counts a super switch of +27 for Obama over the past two weeks.

"'His mind is as sharp as anybody's I've ever met,' Feingold said of Obama. 'He's done extremely well for somebody with his level of experience.'" While he's apparently not ready to officially endorse, Sen. Russ Feingold tells a Wisconsin paper he's "highly inclined" to vote for Obama. Meanwhile, Obama has picked up the vote of another Wisconsan, superedelegate Jason Rae, 21, who was recently wined and dined by Chelsea. "He cited Obama’s support from an overwhelming majority of young voters as the major reason for his decision." Update: Another super, Margaret Xifaras of MA, backs Obama. So that's 2 today...3 if we count Sen. Feingold.

Update: Count him. Sen. Feingold tells The Nation he voted for Barack Obama in Wisconsin. "'I really do think that, at the gut level, this is a chance to do something special,' Feingold said of the Obama campaign and the potential of an Obama presidency, which he said has 'enormous historical opportunities for America and for our relationship with the world.'"

"'Sen. Obama will fight for better wages, real health care reform, stronger retirement security, fair trade and an end to the outsourcing of good jobs,' said Hoffa. 'He understands the importance of giving workers a voice at work and will fight for strong unions to help rebuild America’s middle class.'" The Teamsters, 1.4 million strong, back Barack Obama, as does the 65,000-member International Brotherhood of Boilermakers. (The Change to Win labor consortium may follow suit tomorrow, although four of its seven member unions already back the Senator.) Meanwhile, Sen. Obama picked up four more superdelegates today: Ron Kind of WI (who said he'd follow his district), Lloyd Doggett of TX, and Dana Redd and Donald Norcross of NJ. (Redd had previously backed Clinton, meaning today's superdelegate swing was 5.) Update: Change to Win backs Obama, although the three unions not already supporting the Senator abstained from voting: "[T]he three unions released the federation to work for Obama in the upcoming primaries and caucuses."

"'Superdelegates are not second-class delegates,' says Joel Ferguson, who will be a superdelegate if Michigan is seated. 'The real second-class delegates are the delegates that are picked in red-state caucuses that are never going to vote Democratic.'" More bad news for non-Clinton-voting states: You're not only insignificant to Mark Penn, a Clinton campaign co-chair thinks you're second-class. Also, to the 2004 red-states of Ohio and definitely Texas, I'm afraid this pretty clearly includes you as well. Sorry, but, as always, please vote Democratic regardless.

As the Clinton campaign begins pulling out all the stops in Wisconsin, Mark Penn, he of the "impressionable elites" and "insignificant states," offers up another doozy: “Winning Democratic primaries is not a qualification or a sign of who can win the general election. If it were, every nominee would win because every nominee wins Democratic primaries." So...winning primaries is not a good way to pick a candidate now. Can we still get Mike Gravel as our standard-bearer, then?

For his part, Clinton adviser and superdelegate Harold Ickes (son of the prominent progressive and New Dealer) at least conceded the importance of winning, although he too is putting his faith on a bailout by the supers (and/or a successful joint pincer movement with McCain.) According to him, the campaign will go until June, whereupon supers will flock to Clinton. "'At or about – certainly, shortly after – the seventh of June, Hillary’s going to nail down this nomination,' Ickes said. 'She’s going to have a majority of the delegates.'" Sorry, not bloody likely. (About that June 7 match-up, tho, Sen. Obama recently picked up the endorsement of Puerto Rico Governor Anibal Acevedo-Vila, so even that final Clinton firewall looks to be suffering from a few cracks.)

I posted earlier today on superdelegate Christine Samuels switching from Clinton to Obama. Now, according to the AP, it seems Clinton may be losing a few more: Based on his district's overwhelming support for the Senator from Illinois, Rep. David Scott (D-GA) has switched to Clinton from Obama, and "two other superdelegates, Sophie Masloff of Pennsylvania and Nancy Larson of Minnesota, are uncommitted, having dropped their earlier endorsements of Clinton." And, perhaps buttressing TNR's recent argument that Clinton's support among Black establishment figures is wavering, none other than Rep. John Lewis goes on record about a possible switch: "'It could (happen). There's no question about it. It could happen with a lot of people...we can count and we see the clock,' he said." (Which reminds me: A good place to keep track of superdelegate shifts, if you haven't found it yet, is DemConWatch.)

Update: It's official. John Lewis switches to Obama. "'In recent days, there is a sense of movement and a sense of spirit,' said Mr. Lewis, a Georgia Democrat who endorsed Mrs. Clinton last fall. 'Something is happening in America and people are prepared and ready to make that great leap...'I’ve been very impressed with the campaign of Senator Obama,' Mr. Lewis said. 'He’s getting better and better every single day.'" Update 2: Or did he? Now, everyone's confused.

A Valentine's afternoon campaign roundup:

"I believe Senator Obama is the best candidate to restore American credibility, to restore our confidence to be moral and to bring people together to solve the complex issues such as the economy, the environment and global stability." Former Republican (now Independent and Dubya critic) Senator Lincoln Chafee officially endorses Obama. The Senator from Illinois also picked up a Clinton superdelegate in Christine "Roz" Samuels (meaning, as MSNBC points out, a 2-point swing in the superdelegate column.) And Al Gore, meanwhile, has confirmed to TNR that he will not be endorsing anyone. "Basically, Gore appears to be preserving for himself the option of stepping in and declaring a winner in the event of a war over superdelegates, and thus being seen as a kind of mediating figure, rather than as someone trying to influence the outcome" Given yesterday's threat of a party meltdown by the Clinton campaign, that'll probably be more useful for Sen. Obama anyway.

Meanwhile, in an interview with WMAL, Bill Clinton just makes up random stuff as he goes along. (I was going to say he was commiting seppuku to his legacy, but, as Wikipedia just reminded me, seppuku involves dying with honor.) "Of his wife's recent travails, he said, 'the caucuses aren't good for her. They disproportionately favor upper-income voters who, who, don't really need a president but feel like they need a change.'" (If you're keeping score at home, be sure to add "upper-income voters" to the 20 states in the "not-significant" column.) "'I think she has been the underdog ever since Iowa,' Clinton said. "She’s had, you know, a lot of the politicians, like Senator Kennedy, opposed to her...He said they'd done well considering their slim budget. 'We've gotten plenty of delegates on a shoestring,' he said. He did not mention that his wife's campaign has raised more than $140 million."

The best news for the Clinton team today: As of this past weekend, Sen. Clinton still held a big lead in Ohio (between 14 and 21 points, depending on the poll.) Of course, these were taken before the Potomac results and before Sen. Obama has started campaigning on the ground, and they still don't show the kind of massive spread Sen. Clinton needs to take back the pledged delegate lead. But I'm sure they'll take solace where they can find it. Update: I've tried to swear off taking much out of polls of late, but there's an interesting further discussion of the Wisconsin and Ohio poll numbers here.)

Update 2: "That's the difference between me and my Democratic opponent. My opponent gives speeches, I offer solutions." With really no other recourse at this point, Sen. Clinton (and her husband) try the blunderbuss of negativity approach. I'd point out the many flaws in Sen. Clinton's screed today, but, as it turns out, the Obama team has already done it for me. I'll just leave it at this: Can anyone point to a single "solution" Sen. Clinton has ever offered and carried through for the American people? And, no, running health care reform into the ground in 1994 doesn't count. Well, to be fair, I guess she did once go out on a limb to put an end to the horrible scourge of flag-burning. Now, that takes leadership.

"Two senior Clinton advisers, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss the race candidly, said the campaign feels the New York senator needs to quickly change the dynamic by forcing Obama into a poor debate performance, going negative or encouraging the media to attack Obama. They're grasping at straws, but the advisers said they can't see any other way that her campaign will be sustainable after losing 10 in a row." Last night was grand, but there'll be no resting on laurels just yet. The Clinton campaign redoubles its efforts in Wisconsin, putting out a new ad attacking Obama for the debate schedule. (Of course, allegations of debate-ducking is usually the last province of the also-ran. TNR, for example, dug up this campaign ad by NY Dem Jonathan Tasini attacking Sen. Clinton for...refusing to debate.) Update: A new Obama ad responds with class.

In the meantime, AP's Ron Fournier argues that many of the superdelegates are more than ready to balk the Clintons: "Some are folks who owe the Clintons a favor but still feel betrayed or taken for granted. Could that be why Bill Richardson, a former U.N. secretary and energy secretary in the Clinton administration, refused to endorse her even after an angry call from the former president? 'What,' Bill Clinton reportedly asked Richardson, 'isn't two Cabinet posts enough?'"

But if not Richardson, what of Edwards? While Sen. Obama delves into rhetorical Edwards/Feingold country (in Sen. Feingold's hometown of Janesville, WI, no less), ABC News suggests the Senator from North Carolina might be leaning towards endorsing Clinton at this point. That'd be a surprise, to say the least.

"Several Clinton superdelegates, whose votes could help decide the nomination, also said Monday that they were wavering in the face of Mr. Obama’s momentum after victories in Washington, Nebraska, Louisiana and Maine last weekend. Some of them said that they, like the hundreds of uncommitted superdelegates still at stake, may ultimately 'go with the flow,' in the words of one, and support the candidate who appears to show the most strength in the primaries to come." The NYT reports on the general shakiness in the Clinton campaign at the moment, and reemphasizes the importance of Ohio and Texas on March 4. (Jon Chait disagrees.)"'She has to win both Ohio and Texas comfortably, or she’s out,' said one Democratic superdelegate who has endorsed Mrs. Clinton, and who spoke on condition of anonymity to share a candid assessment. 'The campaign is starting to come to terms with that.' Campaign advisers, also speaking privately in order to speak plainly, confirmed this view."

All well and good, but really: Let's not put the cart before the horse here. We have the Chesapeake primaries tomorrow, and while the polls clearly favor Sen. Obama, they favored him before New Hampshire as well. Let's see how those critical primaries shake out first before presuming the Clinton campaign is in full rout. As we should all know by now, there's nothing more politically dangerous than a Clinton with his or her back to the wall. (And, being as oblique as possible for Wire fans behind the curve, Norman Wilson's recent advice to Tommy Carcetti about Clay Davis also comes to mind.)

"'Sen. Obama has been talking about hope and change and improving the morale of this country,' Mr. Anchia said. 'Gen. Patton once said that 80 percent of leadership is improving morale. And right now the country is in a pretty demoralized state and looking to get out of it, and I think Sen. Obama has the most compelling message there.'" More recent Obama endorsements of note: Rep. Rafael Anchia (representing Dallas), Rep. Charlie Gonzalez (representing the San Antonio area), and Northern Virginia Rep. James Moran (this last one, it seems, might actually hurt Obama.) Sen. Obama also seems to have made fans across the aisle in former Secretary of State Colin Powell and former Senator Lincoln Chafee. Meanwhile, checking in on the Big Three of remaining endorsements (that is, presuming Speaker Pelosi stays neutral until a candidate is decided):

Al Gore: Every few days a rumor circulates from the Clinton campaign side that Al Gore is set to endorse Obama. But, despite "unbelievable" animus reported between the Clintons and Gores, no word from the Nobel Prize-winner yet. Presumably, he's waiting because either [a] he doesn't want to endanger his post-partisan cachet or [b] he senses the Democratic Party might need people who seem above the fray to broker a pre-convention deal. Either way, it doesn't seem like he'll be getting involved anytime soon. Update: CNN reconfirms: Gore sources say he's staying out of it.

John Edwards: Here's where a lot of the attention seems to be at the moment, given that a Thursday meeting between Clinton and Edwards leaked, and a planned Obama-Edwards meeting today was postponed. At the moment, media speculation seems to be that Edwards' endorsement is truly up for grabs, although as I said here, given his previous statements about Clinton's "status quo" campaign, I'd think he'd have to be leaning toward Obama (or risk losing quite a bit of credibility.) In their report on the Clinton-Edwards meet, CNN said that two friends of Elizabeth Edwards said she preferred Obama. If that's true, that would seem to clinch it, but one never knows, and now "sources close to the Edwards family flatly deny that she favors one candidate over the other."

Russ Feingold: Sen. Feingold, whose endorsement may well carry more weight than that of Edwards (particularly in upcoming Wisconsin) has said he's planning to endorse after the Feb. 19 primary. He's previously been very critical of Edwards, and some see that playing a role in the Obama-Edwards discussions at the moment. Again, given the previous dust-ups between Feingold and Clinton, I'd think the Wisconsin Senator would be leaning Obama. But he's spent a lot of time with both candidates, and he doesn't look to be moving off the fence before the 19th, after which he may likely just follow the choice of his state.

In short, now that we're past Super Tuesday, it seems the Big Guns mainly want to see how things will play out. Update: The Man Who Fell to Earth? Greg Sargent's sources say Sen. Clinton is about to pick up a decently important endorsement in former Ohio Senator John Glenn. Hmm, that's too bad. I'd have liked to have Sen. Glenn in our corner. Ah well, godspeed regardless.

"Senator Obama has been fighting for ordinary Americans ever since he was a community organizer more than two decades ago. He has the unique combination of real life experience fighting for ordinary Americans, and the skill to bring Democrats, Republicans, and Independents together to get things done." Sen. Obama picks up the endorsements of two more governors: Chet Culver of Iowa and Christine Gregoire of Washington. And, in related news, Minnesota Rep. (and superdelegate) Tim Walz backs Obama based on the Senator's strong showing in Walz's congressional district on Super Tuesday. "Last night at the Democratic caucuses, the voters of southern Minnesota overwhelmingly supported Sen. Barack Obama and his hopeful vision for positive change. As a superdelegate to the Democratic National Convention, I will honor their decision and support Sen. Obama."

It's the Friday before Super Tuesday, and no Edwards and no Gore...yet (and neither look to be choosing before Tuesday, if at all.) But some other big endorsements for Obama this morning:

"'We need a president who can reintroduce America to the world – and actually reintroduce America to ourselves. Barack Obama represents the America we once were and want to be again." Sen. Patrick Leahy of Vermont endorses Barack Obama. "Leahy likened his support of Obama to the 1968 presidential campaign, when as a young prosecutor he endorsed Robert Kennedy over Hubert Humphrey. 'He was bringing us a sense of hope, bringing us together,' Leahy said. 'I know those are intangibles, but it encouraged me to go against the establishment in my own state, and go with Bobby Kennedy.'"

And another potentially big Obama endorsement from yesterday: Maria Elena Durazo, head of the Los Angeles Federation of Labor. One expert said of Durazo: "There is no person in all of California who could get more people out to the street to go do something, either to march or get the vote out." "When she discussed her endorsement with her son Michael, a senior at Cathedral High School in Los Angeles, he urged her to choose Obama. 'He said, "In the end, Mom, it's the chance of a lifetime." For him to say that means a lot. It's true.'"

Two more Senate endorsements for Obama: Sen. Ben Nelson of Nebraska and Sen. Claire McCaskill of Missouri. "Nelson, pledging his support for his Illinois colleague, said Obama has 'the greatest potential to ending the bitterness and poisonous atmosphere in Washington.'" Update: McCaskill's statement.

"'I think we need fresh voices and fresh messages of unity and coming together,' Napolitano told the Post in a telephone interview. 'I think he's a new young voice who has new appeal, particularly for those of us in the West...He does bring the unique ability to excite, to bring young people into the process...and to attract independent voters.'" Senator Obama picks up another (potentially) big endorsement in Arizona governor Janet Napolitano.

"Since the birth of our nation change has been won by young presidents and young leaders who have shown that experience is not defined by time in Washington and years in office. It is defined by wisdom and instinct and vision...The only charge that rings false is the one that tells you not to hope for a better America. Don't let anyone tell you to accept the downsizing of the American dream." Barack Obama picks up a few more endorsements in Sen. John Kerry (and more importantly, his voter list and organization), South Dakota Senators Tim Johnson and Tom Daschle, and Congressman George Miller (which some see as a nod from Speaker Pelosi, although Pelosi clarified again today that she plans not to endorse anyone.) In the meantime, while a new poll has Obama up 12 in South Carolina (not that polls mean much anymore, of course), South Carolina's leading Democrat (and my old congressman) Jim Clyburn still hasn't officially picked his candidate. "Clyburn, continuing to be coy about his endorsement, often tells reporters that he’s made up his mind, but never offers a name. Most signs, though, point to Obama."

Update: "To call that dream [of an Obama presidency] a fairy tale, which Bill Clinton seemed to be doing, could very well be insulting to some of us." No official word yet, but Clyburn suggests again he's leaning Obama now, in part because of the Clintons' dismaying behavior in New Hampshire. Speaking of Senator Clinton's enthronement of LBJ as the civil rights ideal: "'We have to be very, very careful about how we speak about that era in American politics,' said Mr. Clyburn, who was shaped by his searing experiences as a youth in the segregated South and his own activism in those days. 'It is one thing to run a campaign and be respectful of everyone’s motives and actions, and it is something else to denigrate those. That bothered me a great deal.'"

Update 2: I posted more about Clyburn's remarks -- and Clinton's view of history -- here.