Recently in Politics (2002-2004) Category

"Every redistricting is a partisan political exercise, but this is going to put it at a level we have never seen...That's the gift that the Supreme Court and Tom DeLay have given us." In other news, the Court votes 5-4 that DeLay's Texas redistricting plan needs to be tweaked -- namely, that one district needs to be redrawn to accommodate the Voting Rights Act -- but is otherwise legal and constitutional. "[W]ith six justices producing 123 pages of opinions, without any five of them able to agree on how to define an unconstitutional gerrymander, politicians of both parties said that the ruling leaves the door wide open to attempts to copy the DeLay strategy in other states."

He's a uniter, not a divider...Watch America turn blue (once again) with contempt over the ineptitude and dishonesty of the Dubya administration, from month to month. (Via Medley.)

No doubt anticipating some kickback-heavy sessions in 2005, Tom DeLay and the Congressional GOP aim to eliminate several House ethics rules, among them the procedures for investigating complaints and the restrictions on free trips for relatives. "Government watchdog groups called the proposals startling and unjustified. If the proposed rules are adopted next week as GOP leaders suggest, they would amount to 'the biggest backtracking on House ethics rules that we have seen,' said Fred Wertheimer, president of Democracy 21." Update Sensing a PR nightmare on Day 1 of the new Congress, the GOP back down and void the recent Save-DeLay rule. Good for them.

Hello all...I finished up the end-of-term grading yesterday evening, at which point Berkeley and I started settling in to the christmas spirit down here at Murphy Home Base in Norfolk. Here's hoping everyone out there is having a safe and merry holiday season, and that you get something better from Santa than Dubya's warmed-over right-wing judges.

Also, if you're looking for some trailers to tide you over, here's Leggy & Liam battling freedom-hating infidels in Ridley Scott's crusader pic Kingdom of Heaven, Russell Crowe trying to out-Seabiscuit Seabiscuit in Ron Howard's Cinderella Man, a slew of A-listers vamping and vicing in the Robert Rodriguez version of Frank Miller's Sin City, MTV Films butchering another needless remake in The Longest Yard, and creepy undead kids claiming yet another victim in Boogeyman. Enjoy, and happy holidays, y'all.(Aragorn pic via Fark.)

The intro sums it up: "With 573 newly discovered ballots roiling the second recount in the race for governor of Washington, the Republican Party went to court Thursday seeking a restraining order that would halt the counting of those votes." Ah, the shadiness knows no bounds.

Dubya starts the hard sell on his plan for privatizing Social Security, claiming such a move will reassure financial markets. "Mr. Bush never mentioned the near certainty that without raising taxes, which he has ruled out, any plan to add personal investment accounts to Social Security and improve its financial condition would include a reduction in the guaranteed retirement benefit." Hmmm...that doesn't sound very reassuring.

After a long and tortuous road, including some last-minute GOP balking, Dubya signed the intelligence bill into law today. "The new law, which grew out of last summer's report of the national commission that investigated the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, brings together the 15 separate intelligence agencies into a single command structure, legislates creation of a National Counter Terrorism Center, increases border security and establishes a civil liberties board to serve as a check on excesses in the war on terrorism." Sounds good...now let's get that bastard Buttle.

It's a pile-on. GOP Senators Trent Lott (who knows how these things work) and Susan Collins join John McCain, Evan Bayh, Bill Kristol, and Chuck Hagel in calling for Rumsfeld's removal. (Naturally, this White House is responding by hugging him ever closer.) Update: Dubya praises Rummy's 'really fine job.' In comparison to yours, perhaps...)

Just as Tom Ridge did in his own resignation a few weeks ago, NASA administrator Sean O'Keefe steps down by citing his need to make more money to put his kids through college. "'It is this [the president's] very commitment to family that draws me to conclude that I must depart public service,' O'Keefe wrote. 'The first of three children will begin college next fall...I owe them the same opportunity my parents provided for me to pursue higher education without the crushing burden of debt thereafter.'" Am I missing something? I know tuition costs have skyrocketed, but is $158,000-a-year really too little money to send a child to college these days? C'mon, now.

"If establishment Democrats still fear Howard Dean, they ought to elect him chairman of the Democratic National Committee..." Following in the footsteps of such insightful political blogs as Value Judgment, Slate's Chris Suellentrop warns Dean to stay away from the DNC. "Ed Rendell was so frustrated with his job as DNC chairman during Al Gore's 2000 presidential campaign that he complained to the New Republic, 'I basically take orders from 27-year-old guys in Nashville who have virtually no real-life experience. All they've done is been political consultants living in an artificial world, and basically their opinion counts more than mine.'" Heh.

"The congressional watchdog remains fast asleep, and we intend to wake him up." As Catkiller Frist and the GOP threaten to go nuclear on the filibuster tip, Senate Dems announce they'll be holding oversight hearings into matters such as "defense contract abuses" over the coming year. Well, at the very least, this news from our side of the aisle sounds more promising than Harry Reid's recent thumbs up for Scalia.

Speaking to the Associated Press yesterday, fair-weather maverick John McCain gives Donald Rumsfeld a vote of "no confidence." As usual, this seems like the type of key reservation McCain should have expressed before last month's election.

"One of the biggest changes in politics in my lifetime is that the delusional is no longer marginal. It has come in from the fringe, to sit in the seat of power in the Oval Office and in Congress. For the first time in our history, ideology and theology hold a monopoly of power in Washington." At a recent awards dinner, Bill Moyers laments the rise of theocratic "End-of-Days" types under Dubya. Meanwhile, with the White House in their collective pocket, religious fundies now look to spread the word through the states.

"For years, the party has been led by elite Washington insiders who are closer to corporate lobbyists than they are to the Democratic base. But we can't afford four more years of leadership by a consulting class of professional election losers." While kicking Terry McAuliffe out the DNC door, MoveOn.org lays claim to the Democratic party. "We bought it, we own it, we're going to take it back."

Ooh, Porter Goss must be furious. The CIA station chief in Baghdad "has warned that the situation in Iraq is deteriorating and may not rebound any time soon." According to the classifed cable obtained by the NYT, "the security situation was likely to get worse, including more violence and sectarian clashes, unless there were marked improvements soon on the part of the Iraqi government, in terms of its ability to assert authority and to build the economy."

Elsewhere, Senator Lincoln Chafee (R-RI) said upon his return from Iraq, "We really need cold, hard facts and honesty. The situation is tough over there...If with 100,000-plus troops over there, we can't control that 10-mile road [between Baghdad and GWB Airport], it shows what's happening politically. The people are not as friendly as they were a year ago towards Americans." Hmm...you'd think a GOP Senator like Chafee, to say nothing of our nation's intelligence agency, would know better than to aid the terrorists by airing the real facts about what's going on over there. Can't they smell the victory?

While new Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid shores up Scalia's creds for Chief Justice (ugh, the new Congress hasn't even met yet and he's already Daschle redux), Howard Dean preps for a big State of the Party speech tomorrow in which he'll "argue that the Democratic Party should be rebuilt from the grass roots up, that it should be driven by millions of Americans who make small contributions rather than by a handful of moneyed interests, and that the party should focus not just on presidential politics in swing states like Ohio and Florida but also on down-ballot races even in the reddest of states." If these are my choices, put me on the Dean Machine...the endless protective camouflage song-and-dance perp'ed by Reid this past weekend has to stop. Update: More on Dean's speech.

All the news that's fit to print...According to the NYT, "Mr. Bush never lingers at much of anything, but he really doesn't linger in museums and at historical sites." Nope, can't say that's much of a shocker.

Hmmm...I don't know quite how to feel about this one. "Without a separate vote or even a debate, House Majority Leader Tom DeLay (R-TX) has managed to deliver to a delighted NASA enough money to forge ahead on a plan that would reshape U.S. space policy for decades to come...DeLay, a self-described 'space nut,' told Johnson Space Center employees a few days after the vote that 'NASA helps America fulfill the dreams of the human heart.'" It probably doesn't hurt that the Johnson Space Center is now in his district, either...still, this may be one of the only times when I find myself applauding the Exterminator.

Call him King of the Mountain....via the newly reconstituted JJG, Midnight Oil frontman Peter Garrett (who suffered a fainting spell over the weekend) was recently elected to the Australian Parliament. I saw the Oils ten years ago during their WOMAD tour with Peter Gabriel, and Garrett was an electric presence, offering what is still far and away the best stage banter I've ever heard. (And, whatsmore, it wasn't canned...I remember him riffing on their Letterman appearance only a few days earlier.) The people of Kingsford Smith are lucky -- in this day and age, you could do a lot worse for an elected rep than Garrett.

Well, I guess this what we get for re-electing a President who thinks "the jury's still out" on evolution. To help offset exploding Dubya deficits, Congress "has cut the budget for the National Science Foundation, an engine for research in science and technology, just two years after endorsing a plan to double the amount given to the agency." But, don't fret: "While cutting the budget of the science foundation, Congress found money for the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame, the Alabama Sports Hall of Fame in Birmingham, the Country Music Hall of Fame in Nashville, bathhouses in Hot Springs, Ark., and hundreds of similar projects." Yep, priorities, people. (Although granted that cutting-edge cancer research probably costs more than Charlie Daniels' signed guitar.)

Break out the duct tape...Homeland Security chief Tom Ridge joins the ranks of the Dubya-departed, "noting that he feels exhausted from the grueling hours required for the work and that he wants to make more money now that he has two children reaching college age." Current names being bandied about as replacements include "former Virginia governor James S. Gilmore III, Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and Frances Fragos Townsend, current White House homeland security adviser." Given the recent trend to promote Dubya loyalists throughout the cabinet, I'm surprised they haven't found a new gig for Marc Racicot yet...he's been the flunky's flunky.

For those of you who've considered moving to Canada after recent events, sorry...it looks like Dubya beat y'all to it. As with his recent trip to England, "Bush will not make a customary speech at the House of Commons in Ottawa where the sometimes raucous Parliament has been known to heckle speakers." Well, you know how the Prez gets all kinds of incoherent in front of unscreened audiences, even with that strange bulge taped to his back.

"Intent on using his capital to secure his place in history, Bush may finally pass a right-wing social agenda, an entitlement reform agenda and a neoconservative foreign policy...And by enacting his program, Bush may dash conservatives' hopes for a lasting Republican majority." With trouble already brewing among House conservatives, Columbia PhD, former FCC colleague, and Gipper scholar Matthew Dallek contrasts Dubya's governance with that of Reagan, and finds the former wanting, to say the least.

A recent study by PoliticalMoneyLine confirms what we all know: corporations love them some GOP. "While many corporate PACs in the 1970s and 1980s sought to split campaign contributions between candidates of both parties, the new study found that more than a quarter of the large corporate PACs gave at least $3 to Republican candidates for every $1 to Democrats."

Feeling oh-so-oppressed as usual, student conservatives at Berkeley decry the 7-1 Dem-to-GOP ratio among Humanities and Social Science profs nationwide. Tsk, tsk...they say it like it's such a bad thing. Well, if you'd prefer that we lefties work elsewhere than academia -- say, in government -- y'all know how to vote next time.

Faced with the grim morning-after receipts of Dubya's feckless splurging and deficit-exploding tax cuts, the Senate is forced raise the debt limit by $800 billion (again) to stop the government from going into default. "Though an increase in the debt ceiling was never in doubt, Republican leaders in both houses of Congress postponed action on it last month, until after the elections, to deprive Democrats of a chance to accuse them of fiscal irresponsibility."

Even in success, it seems, the Right can't be relied upon to play by the rules. As the House GOP moves to shield Tom DeLay from the Rostenkowski rule they passed eleven years ago (mandating that an indicted leader step down), Senate Republicans look to the "nuclear option" for ending filibusters of judicial nominees, which would allow said filibusters to be ended with a simple 51-vote majority. Finally, in a dubious display of bipartisanship, the Bushies aim to peel off one more Senate vote by offering Democratic Senator Ben Nelson the Agriculture post.

"Ah you loved me as a loser, but now you're worried that I just might win. You know the way to stop me, but you don't have the discipline." The DLC and other Democratic centrists push Tom Vilsack, Jeanne Shaheen, and a handful of other milquetoast contenders to be the next DNC head (and to thwart the Dean alternative.) Look, it's obvious the Republican-lite status quo wasn't working. It's time to drop the protective camouflage and articulate a progressive narrative that highlights the grotesquely pro-corporate nature of the GOP. With that in mind, let's sidestep the party flaks, and go ahead and pick Howard. At this point, it's not like we have anything to lose.

Content to play the iconoclast again now that election 2004 is over, John McCain calls out the Bush administration on global warming. Too little, too late, Mr. Senator...given the water you carried for the Bushies this last cycle, your free-fall on the Murphometer at this point looks permanent.

The Dems in the Senate have officially chosen Harry Reid of Nevada to be the new Minority Leader (and Chuck Schumer to run the DSCC.) "'He has absolutely no fear,' said Jimmy Ryan, a former Reid aide who now lobbies for Citigroup. 'He knows when to call a vote, and when to let your members know it's time to walk the plank...He's probably the best reader of human beings I've ever met.'" Well, let's hope so.

Stick a fork in him, and say goodbye to what semblance of multilateralism has existed in the Dubya era. To Rummy's relish (and to no one's surprise) Colin Powell's ignominious tenure at State is through. Seemingly well-intentioned but weak and sidelined most of the time, Powell's tour at State will probably be best remembered for his losing battles with the Neocons and his embarrassing and misleading performance before the United Nations in 2003.

Following Powell out the door are Education Secretary Rod Paige, Agriculture Secretary Ann Veneman, and Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham. Margaret Spellings, Dubya's domestic policy advisor, is taking Paige's gig...I dread to think who else will sign on for Dubya II. Ken Lay at Energy? John Danforth has been mentioned as a possible Powell replacement, but, heck, why not pull Helms out of mothballs? Update: Looks like it's Condi...and more of the same.

The dollar tanking? No problemo for this administration, who see a weak dollar as key to offsetting our ballooning trade deficits. "The unsettling worry, however, is what could happen if foreigners suddenly lost interest in holding dollar-denominated investments. The outward rush from U.S. stock and bond markets could send stock prices crashing and interest rates soaring." Well, at least my college loan debt isn't in Euros.

Only four more years until Election Day 2008, so it must be time for possible contenders to start drumming up some cash. As such, maverick Senator Chuck Hagel of Nebraska contemplates a 2008 bid for the GOP (He seems a decent, rational fellow, which means he'd undoubtedly have a McCain problem in the primary), while some Dems start thinking about Gov. Mark Warner of Virginia.

"Sweetness, I was only joking..." Arlen Specter learns the hard way that it doesn't pay to get in the way of Dubya's shiny, new evangelical steamroller, and will now have to prostrate himself before Catkiller Frist and the loony Right to keep his Senate Judiciary Chairmanship. In the inimitable words of Lando Calrissian, this deal's getting worse all the time...

"'The agency is being purged on instructions from the White House,' said a former senior CIA official...'Goss was given instructions...to get rid of those soft leakers and liberal Democrats.'" Newsday reports that the recent spate of resignations at the CIA is no accident, but rather a direct attempt by the Bushies to cleanse the agency of their enemies. Great...now I feel much safer.

"Indeed, former administration officials say all of the names on Mr. Bush's short list for the Supreme Court are considered strict constructionists who are closer to Justice Scalia than to Justice O'Connor." The New York Times tries to figure out if Dubya can actually remake the Supreme Court along "strict constructionist" lines as feared and concludes that, yeah, he probably can.

"'It's the worst roiling I've ever heard of,' said one former senior official with knowledge of the events. 'There's confusion throughout the ranks and an extraordinary loss of morale and incentive.'" Apparently, Dubya's newly-appointed CIA chief Porter Goss is throwing the Agency into disarray and sparking a wave of resignations, mainly due to the actions of his heavy-handed lieutenants. Is now really the best time to hamstring our intelligence agency with bumbling, partisan hackery?

On his way out the door, John Ashcroft calls out judges for judging. "'The danger I see here is that intrusive judicial oversight and second-guessing of presidential determinations in these critical areas can put at risk the very security of our nation in a time of war,' Ashcroft said." Well, maybe now that he's got some time on his hands, perhaps someone can explain to him that whole checks-and-balances thing.

Values, schmalues. Rick Perlstein suggests in the Village Voice that, in the end, Election 2004 came down to GOP avarice.

It's official...John Ashcroft is out at Justice. I have no doubt Dubya's second-term replacement will be comparably grotesque. Still, can't say I'm sad to see him go. Update: Dubya chooses White House counsel Alberto Gonzalez, who, despite his loyalty to Bush, seems like a step up...although his signing off on the Abu Ghreib terror memos gives me pause.

"Let's put our heads together, and start a new country up..." Well, it's been a week. So now what? Howard Dean says put me in charge (Sure, he can't be worse than McAuliffe), James Carville says let's find a new story (and Keep It Simple, Stupid), and John Kerry, well, he's "fired up" about returning to the Senate (?)...and has started contemplating a 2008 run.

Some choice words on moral values and politics, courtesy of Bob Dylan's Chronicles (my current read):

"Clausewitz's book seemed outdated, but there's a lot in it that's real, and you can understand a lot about conventional life and the pressures of environment by reading it. When he claims that politics has taken the place of morality and politics is brute force, he's not playing. You have to believe it. You do exactly as you're told, whoever you are. Knuckle under or you're dead. Don't give me any of that jazz about hope or nonsense about righteousness. Don't give me that dance that God is with us, or that God supports us. Let's get down to brass tacks. There isn't any moral order. You can forget that. Morality has nothing in common with politics. It's not there to transgress. It's either high ground or low ground. This is the way the world is and nothing's gonna change it. It's a crazy, mixed up world and you have to look it right in the eye. Clausewitz in some ways is a prophet. Without realizing it, some of the stuff in his book can shape your ideas. If you think you're a dreamer, you can read this stuff and realize you're not even capable of dreaming. Dreaming is dangerous. Reading Clausewitz makes you take your own thoughts a little less seriously." (Chronicles, p. 45)

From Boing Boing and the AP: "A computer error with a voting machine cartridge gave President Bush 3,893 extra votes in a Gahanna [Ohio] precinct. Franklin County's unofficial results gave Bush 4,258 votes to Democratic challenger John Kerry's 260 votes in Precinct 1B. Records show only 638 voters cast ballots in that precinct." Hmmm...I for one don't think it's feasible that the entirety of Dubya's winning popular vote margin is manufactured. (Right now, I'm more inclined to side with Jane Smiley and the Brits.) But factor in Greg Palast's discussion of Ohio chads to the equation and, I'll admit, one starts to wonder.

Some pop culture quotes that, applicable or not, have been flitting about my head the past few days:

"And that, I think, was the handle---that sense of inevitable victory over the forces of Old and Evil. Not in any mean or military sense; we didn't need that. Our energy would simply prevail. There was no point in fighting---on our side or theirs. We had all the momentum; we were riding the crest of a high and beautiful wave. So now, less than five years later, you can go up on a steep hill in Las Vegas and look West, and with the right kind of eyes you can almost see the high-water mark---the place where the wave finally broke and rolled back."
- Hunter S. Thompson, Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas

"Where is the horse and the rider?

Where is the horn that was blowing?

They've passed like rain on the mountain, like wind in the meadow.

The days have gone down in the West, behind the hills, into shadow."

- Theoden, The Two Towers

"Ladies and gentlemen, er, we've just lost the picture, but, uh, what we've seen speaks for itself. The Corvair spacecraft has been taken over -- 'conquered', if you will -- by a master race of giant space ants. It's difficult to tell from this vantage point whether they will consume the captive earth men or merely enslave them. One thing is for certain, there is no stopping them; the ants will soon be here. And I, for one, welcome our new insect overlords. I'd like to remind them that as a trusted TV personality, I can be helpful in rounding up others to toil in their underground sugar caves."
- Kent Brockman, "Deep Space Homer" (This last one birddogged, after much mutual quoting, by Mark at Nofeblog.)

"I earned capital in the campaign, political capital, and now I intend to spend it." (For some reason, I'm reminded of Homer Simpsons's cabin fever..."I have powers...political powers!") To his credit, Dubya gives us fair warning in his press conference today about what to expect from the coming second term. Some choice Dubya quotes, via Value Judgment: "Now that I've got the will of the people at my back, I'm going to start enforcing the one-question rule. That was three questions." or "Again, he violated the one-question rule right off the bat. Obviously you didn't listen to the will of the people." Also, by way of Looka: "I will reach out to every one who shares our goals." The rest of us, it seems, might be in for some trouble.

So, according to a CNN poll today, 51% of the country are optimistic about the election results (surprise, surprise), and 57% of the country "expect Bush to unite the nation during his second term." You think? Well, as Albert Einstein aptly noted, "insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result."

One bright spot concerning the next four years: Apparently, John Ashcroft isn't sticking around for a second Dubya term. His possible replacements include deputy Larry Thompson, Dubya stooge Marc Racicot, or White House counsel Alberto Gonzalez (the torture memo guy...he'll fit right in.)

Hope is on the...wait, what's this? Oops, sorry about that. Turns out Hope took a wrong turn and got lost somewhere back there in Idiotville. Welcome to Despairtown, baby.

So, that's that, then...the Idiot Wind blows anew. The American electorate has spoken and -- despite all the shadiness and incompetence of the past four years -- has given Dubya and his cronies the imprimatur to go hog-wild. 51-48%...this is pretty much a mandate, folks. (Big of those Red Staters to ensure that we will be woefully unprepared for the next terrorist attack on a Blue State.) Y'know, H.L. Mencken's whole Tyranny of the Booboisie schtick has always grated on my lefty sensibilities, but at this point I have to admit he may have been on to something.

Ugh. I'm too young to remember 1984 very well, but I'm curious as to how last night and this morning compared for America's Left. (I've since been reminded by several people I trust that 1968 and 1972 were much more grievous blows.) Thing is, 2004 started out with such promise over here. But, right around the time I ended up on crutches in May, events personal and political took a nasty turn, and the past few months have been some of the most dismal I can remember. Now, it seems, I may just look back on this time as relatively calm and worry-free.

But, ok, enough wallowing...let's start taking it frame-by-frame. Given the war, the economy, and Dubya's obvious incompetence, how on Earth did we lose this election? Well, give credit where credit is due...all this exit-talk of "moral values" proves that Karl Rove pulled off his gambit: He got the extra 4 million evangelical votes he was targeting, partly, it seems, by judiciously invoking rampant anti-gay hysteria. Yet, for some reason or another -- a lousy ground game, perhaps? -- the Dems inexplicably didn't counter with extra votes of our own.

Where do we go from here? The Dems are facing an ugly Rule of Four...We lost four seats in the Senate, at least four seats in the House, and likely four seats in the Supreme Court. Whatsmore, we now appear officially dead in the water in the South and Midwest. And, with Kerry and Daschle gone, our standard-bearers now appear to be Hillary Clinton (about whom the country has already made up its mind), John Edwards (whom I still admire, but he couldn't carry his home state), and Barrack Obama (who's probably too inexperienced to make much headway in 2008.)

Obviously, it's now well past time for the serious party overhaul we should've began last cycle, when Al Gore had an election stolen from him that he should have won hands down. Daschle & Gephardt are already in the dustbin of history, and Terry McAuliffe should probably follow them there. I for one don't think Howard Dean was or is the answer, but he's one of the only people injecting new blood and enthusiasm into the party right now, so he should have a seat at the table. Right now, I think Edwardsian populism is our strongest ideological card, but as I said, it didn't seem to make much headway last night.

Silver lining? Yeah, right. Well, as this Washington Monthly forum noted in September, second terms are notoriously scandal-prone (Watergate, Iran-Contra, Monica), partly out of press boredom, and Dubya's ilk seem particularly scandal-worthy...perhaps we'll finally hear a little more about Halliburton. I'm sure there'll be no shortage of horrifying policy decisions emanating from this administration that'll keep lefty blogs like this one in business. And, on a purely selfish note, my likely dissertation topic on the fortunes of progressivism in the twenties is now seeming much more sexy in the wake of last night's 1928-like cultural divide. Of course, none of these are really any consolation at all.

At any rate, I generally believe that America tends to get the president it deserves. So, God help us, we've brought this upon ourselves. And now, for we 48%, the hard work begins...we have to lick our wounds, get our act together, and figure out how we can best combat the rightward drift that's afflicting our nation. Alas, I fear Dubya will do much of the heavy lifting for us, by running the nation further into the ground over the next four years. Still, we gotta keep on keeping on, y'all. I do not believe this darkness will endure.

Well, fuck. Here we go again. At 3:10am, Ohio is still up in the air, and may well be for days, as we wait for the provisional ballots to be counted. Right now, Dubya's up by 140,000 votes with 99% reporting, which means Kerry has to run the table with those 175,000 provisionals to go over the top. Doable, sure, but we're definitely running really low on ammo at this point.

I'll save the real post-mortem for when the winner's declared (and I'm less tired), but obviously both my earlier confidence and most of today's exit polls were, um, somewhat off. So, more tomorrow. For now, I'm off to bed, where I'm going to try not to dwell on the future of the Supreme Court.

Update: 3:49am...Oof, there went Daschle. I think it's safe to say at this point that our party is in disarray. Still, given that 51% of the electorate signed off on four more years of Dubya tonight, despite the arrogance and incompetence displayed by this White House since January 2001...well, perhaps we Dems are destined to remain a minority party for some time to come.

[Scroll down this post for exit poll updates.] The 2pm exit polls should be out now...I'll post 'em as soon as I find 'em (or when Jack Shafer of Slate divulges them.) Right now, Drudge is leading with the following: "KERRY CAMPAIGN FINDS COMFORT IN FIRST BATCH OF EXIT POLLS. Election 2004 has been rocked with first wave of exit polls which show Kerry competitive in key states, campaign and media sources tell DRUDGE. National Election Pool -- representing six major news organizations -- shows Kerry in striking distance -- with small lead -- in Florida and Ohio." Sounds like music to my ears, but what's this talk of striking distance? Drudge makes it sound as if Kerry was expected to lose. Update: Ok, here they are, courtesy of dKos. Apparently, they ratio was skewed 59-41 women to men, for what it's worth:

So, as of right now, Kerry's up in all three prongs of the trifecta (Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida), and doing well in Michigan, New Mexico, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and New Hampshire. Iowa's tied, and Dubya's got Arizona and Louisiana locked up with Colorado in play. Hey, it's early yet, but so far, so good. Let's get those 4pm numbers!

Update 2: More from Drudge on the Senate Races: "Senate races: Thune +4 Castor +3 Burr +6 Bunning +6 Coburn +6 Demint +4 Salazar +4..." Thune (SD, v. Daschle), Burr (NC, v. Bowles), Bunning (KY, v. Mongiardo), Coburn (OK, v. Carson ), and Demint (SC, v. Tenenbaum) are GOP. Castor (FL, v. Martinez) and Salazar (CO, v. Coors) are Dems.

Update 3: Slate's Shafer has somewhat different morning numbers. His (that differ) are below. New states in bold:

So, I don't know what's going on over there in Edwards Country, but otherwise, these are better numbers for Bush...he's pulling away in Colorado and closing the gap in the Trifecta and Wisconsin. Phew...and more numbers in 15-30 minutes...if I can find them!

Update 4: Some good news on Florida, via MyDD: Hispanics in Florida are voting 53-46 for Bush (The Cuban breakdown is 68-32). This is significantly better for Kerry than the 2000 numbers: 65-35 and 83-17 for Dubya respectively.

Update 5: A friend of mine in the program alerted me to Wonkette's numbers, which are also slightly different...I don't know if these are the 4pm numbers or not, so I'll just go ahead and post them, new states in bold. Update 6: These are confirmed as the 4pm numbers:

Update 7: Late numbers via Wonkette:

Update 8: Ok, one last batch from dKos, and then I'm off to the local grad student watering hole to watch the real numbers come in. All in all, it's looking pretty good for Kerry -- he's still leading in the Trifecta, the Michigan-Wisconsin axis, and New Mexico. But let's keep our fingers crossed that there isn't a Diebold surprise in the works. Here they are -- I'll see y'all on the flip-side:

Ok, I can now guarantee at least one vote for the Kerry-Edwards ticket in New York. (Of course, the guy in front of me picked Nader, so it's neck-and-neck in the Empire State in the early going...)

Well, the Redskins did their part...now it's up to us. My predictions (re: wishful thinking) for tomorrow (and keep in mind I had Gore winning the electoral vote and Dubya winning the popular vote last time around):

• Thanks to an almost 60% turnout, Kerry wins bigger than expected, carrying between 300 and 315 electoral votes and 51% of the popular vote to Dubya's 48%. [He's pulling 298 in the final polls and seems to have the Mo, so this isn't completely out of left field...particularly once you factor in the mobile vote.]



• The night also ends earlier than expected, with Kerry winning the treasured trifecta of Pennsylvania, Florida, and Ohio. Or, if Dubya's Diebold minions manage to steal Ohio, Kerry offsets with Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Iowa. [I really hope we don't have to wait for the Hawaii vote to come in, although I guess I'd prefer that to another recount fiasco.]



• In the Senate, I think the GOP will almost assuredly keep control, or at most slip into a 50-50 Edwards-breaking tie. Daschle will eke by in his close race thanks to the high turnout. Alas, Democrat contenders Mongiardo in KY, Tenenbaum in SC, and Carson in OK will all fall after spirited contests. That being said, I'll say that Erskine Bowles of NC will be a new Democratic face in the Senate, that Pete Coors goes down in Colorado, and that tomorrow night will obviously be Obamatastic.



• In the House, unfortunately, the GOP will begin its second decade in power, thanks in part (as the Post noted) to DeLay's gerrymandered Texas. Ah, well, baby steps...we'll get the Hammer and his cronies out in 2006.

Well, if nothing else, it should be a lively evening, and I for one am eagerly anticipating Dubya's Rove-penned concession speech. So, until tomorrow, vote early, vote often, and vote Kerry-Edwards!

until the American people crawl out of the television set and kick this godawful administration to the curb. I know Dubya is up ever so slightly in the polls, but ties generally go to the challenger, and, at this point I still feel pretty confident that Kerry is going to win next Tuesday. (Then again, I've felt that way since the primaries ended, which probably has more to do with my inability to conceive of this nation actually choosing Dubya than anything else.) And, with Big Bill back in the game to help close the deal in swing states (something Gore should have considered more seriously in 2000), I think we're good to go. Hope is on the way, y'all.

Remember how much was made of Kerry saying Iraq had cost $200 billion in the debate? Well, "the Bush administration intends to seek about $70 billion in emergency funding for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan early next year, pushing total war costs close to $225 billion since the invasion of Iraq." $225 billion...for that kind of cheddar, you'd think the Bushies could at least have locked down those 380 tons of lethal ordnance, eh?

Just in case anybody needed it spelled out, Rehnquist's recent health problems make it explicit: next week's vote will in fact determine the Supreme Court. It'd be hard to find a judge more Right-Wing than the Chief here, but I'm sure a second Dubya administration would do its damnedest to find one nevertheless.

"'There's not a chance in the world, I don't think, of the House turning over,' political analyst Charles E. Cook Jr. said last week." The Post examines Democratic prospects in the House and finds that "the combination of Republican firepower, Democratic miscues and a controversial Republican redistricting plan in Texas virtually assures the continuation of GOP rule."

By way of Looka and The Nation, 100 Facts and 1 Opinion: The Non-Arguable Case Against the Bush Administration. If you know any undecideds out there, this might be a good one to share.

Biden, Holbrooke, Biden, Holbrooke...Richardson? The Washington Post starts handicapping Kerry's possible Cabinet choices. "Kerry has told friends he wants to tap a Republican for one of the top national security posts, preferably defense or state. Those under consideration include Sens. Chuck Hagel (Neb.) and Richard G. Lugar (Ind.), as well as former senator Warren Rudman." Somehow I think the GOP won't return the favor should Dubya win.

A new study by the Program on International Policy Attitudes at the University of Maryland finally figures out the crux of Dubya's support: the misinformed. "75% of Bush supporters continue to believe that Iraq was providing substantial support to al Qaeda, and 63% believe that clear evidence of this support has been found. Sixty percent of Bush supporters assume that this is also the conclusion of most experts, and 55% assume, incorrectly, that this was the conclusion of the 9/11 Commission." And that's just the beginning, folks.

In a Nickelodeon online poll, nearly 400,000 American children pick Kerry over Dubya 57%-43%. "Nickelodeon has held a "Kids' Vote" every election year since 1988, and kids have correctly predicted the winner of the general elections for the last four U.S. presidential campaigns."

The Sinclair Broadcast Group fires their Washington bureau chief, Jon Leiberman, after he makes his displeasure about their right-wing proselytizing known to the Baltimore Sun. Whatsmore, the wingnut network is playing hardball: "Sinclair would not waive his noncompete agreement, which means he cannot work for a broadcast outlet in any market that has a Sinclair station." Hmmm...well, two (and more) can play at that game. Update: Sinclair buckles.

In "something of a surprise," the Supreme Court authorizes a three-judge district court to review its earlier decision upholding Tom DeLay's partisan gerrymandering of Texas. It's too late for 2004, but perhaps this will bear fruit before 2006, as the Hammer's other shady dealings come to light.

"We look back on the past four years with hearts nearly breaking, both for the lives unnecessarily lost and for the opportunities so casually wasted. Time and again, history invited George W. Bush to play a heroic role, and time and again he chose the wrong course. We believe that with John Kerry as president, the nation will do better." The New York Times endorses John Kerry for President. Not much of a surprise, sure, but still worth reading.

"[Bruce] Bartlett, a 53-year-old columnist and self-described libertarian Republican who has lately been a champion for traditional Republicans concerned about Bush's governance, went on to say: 'This is why George W. Bush is so clear-eyed about Al Qaeda and the Islamic fundamentalist enemy. He believes you have to kill them all. They can't be persuaded, that they're extremists, driven by a dark vision. He understands them, because he's just like them...This is why he dispenses with people who confront him with inconvenient facts...He truly believes he's on a mission from God. Absolute faith like that overwhelms a need for analysis.'" Ron Suskind, co-author of The Price of Loyalty, delves into the sadly myopic halls of Dubya's faith-based presidency (and attempts to explain why our current Prez can't distinguish between Sweden and Switzerland...no one in the White House ever openly challenges his ignorance.)

A NYT report finds mistreatment of prisoners at Guantanamo is much more widespread than earlier suggested by Rumsfeld and other administration officials. "One regular procedure...was making uncooperative prisoners strip to their underwear, having them sit in a chair while shackled hand and foot to a bolt in the floor, and forcing them to endure strobe lights and screamingly loud rock and rap music played through two close loudspeakers, while the air-conditioning was turned up to maximum levels...Such sessions could last up to 14 hours with breaks."

Brent Scowcroft, former National Security Advisor and consigliere to Bush I, decries Dubya's diplomacy in the Financial Times, calling Iraq a "failed venture" and questioning this administration's penchant for unilateralism.

"CARLSON: You need to get a job at a journalism school, I think. STEWART: You need to go to one." Sent to me by a friend in the program here, Jon Stewart and Tucker Carlson battle it out on Crossfire. (More here.) I wish I'd seen this live...the transcript is definitely worth a read. "CARLSON: You had John Kerry on your show and you sniff his throne and you're accusing us of partisan hackery? STEWART: Absolutely...You're on CNN. The show that leads into me is puppets making crank phone calls." Update: See it here, via High Industrial.

Well, Dubya's still up slightly in the polls right now, but Republican pollster Frank Luntz has nevertheless sounded the warning bells for the GOP. "Step by step, debate-by-debate, John Kerry has addressed and removed many remaining doubts among uncommitted voters. My own polling research after each debate suggests a rather bleak outlook for the Bush candidacy: many who still claim to be 'undecided' are in fact leaning to Mr. Kerry and are about ready to commit."

"Less than a day after President Bush implied that Senator John Kerry lacked 'fiscal sanity,' the Bush administration said on Thursday that the federal government had hit the debt ceiling set by Congress [for the fourth time in three years] and would have to borrow from the civil service retirement system until after the elections." As this article goes on to note, the Congressional GOP kicked the vote on this matter until after Election Day, so Dubya wouldn't get any bad press. Under this president, the national debt has increased 40%, to $7.4 trillion.

"This is one of those Bush/Cheney invitation-only lovefests where the president could walk out in his boxer shorts and speak in pig Latin and the crowd would still chant 'four more years.'" With the debates over, it's shore-up-the-base time for Dubya (Hence, the return of the dreaded "L-Word".) And, along those lines, evangelical leaders are working hard to get believers out for Bush. Update: Liberal Christians push back.

"The senator now says we'd have to pass some international truth standard." Um, well, yes, we do. As Will Saletan points out, in the final three weeks of the campaign, Dubya is now explicitly running against reality. The reality is, it's time for this faith-based administration to go.

Well, to no one's surprise, I think John Kerry won again. But, while I'd like to say that the Senator knocked this final debate in Tempe, Arizona out of the park, frankly, he didn't. In the early going, I thought he seemed tired and slightly discombobulated, and, at times when a concise rebuttal could have scored some serious points, Kerry's answers often seemed more wordy and circuitous than necessary. On the other hand, I thought this was Dubya's best performance - he was still smirking and guffawing too much, still distorting the facts, still running from his record, and still demonizing his opponent like the best of 'em, but at least he seemed in full possession of his faculties this time around (perhaps the wire was working tonight.) I did think that Kerry warmed up in the middle third, but he lost focus again during the final questions (Native American blessings? Idears?) That being said, given the relative lack of drama tonight and the playoff baseball on FOX, I highly doubt this final debate will end up altering the current campaign dynamic much.

So there you have it, folks. Barring an October Surprise in the next three weeks, it now all comes down to the ground game, and -- given what we've been hearing regarding voter registration, given the white-hot contempt towards Dubya held by Dems and the ambivalence with which fiscal conservatives and many veterans view this administration, and given the usual tendency of undecideds to break towards the challenger -- turnout is a factor which John Kerry should win handily (barring Diebold shenanigans.) It ain't over yet, to be sure, but right now I'd say that, despite tonight's missed opportunities, John Kerry and John Edwards have put themselves in a solid position to win with their cumulative debate performance. The election is too close to call, definitely, but at this point I feel pretty confident our nation will make the right decision on Nov 2.

"Senator Charles E. Grassley needed every possible vote to pass his mammoth corporate tax bill. So he was more than willing to accept Zell Miller's plea on behalf of imported ceiling fans...[This] provision is just one tiny example of how the need to solve a narrow tax problem in 2002 gave birth to the biggest free-for-all in corporate lobbying that Congress has experienced in nearly 20 years." The NYT conducts a post-mortem of the pork-bloated corporate tax legislation passed by Congress on Monday.

So apparently the Sinclair Broadcast Group, a right-wing-flunky television conglomerate who previously refused to air a Nightline on fallen soldiers in Iraq, will show an anti-Kerry hatchet-job on its swing state affiliates in the next two weeks. Well, I must say, that's quite an end-run around the equal time rule, if not a blatant misuse of the public airwaves. Perhaps the FCC can extricate themselves from their shock over Janet Jackson's breast long enough to look into this.

Looking to recess in time for some electioneering, the House and Senate both pass a pork-swollen corporate tax measure by comfortable margins. "[C]ritics -- including budget watchdogs, liberal activists and Treasury Secretary John W. Snow -- decried what they saw as a cornucopia of special-interest tax cuts that would complicate the tax code, favor companies doing business overseas and ultimately worsen the budget deficit. Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) pronounced it 'disgraceful' and 'a classic example of the special interests prevailing over the people's interest.'"

"On a bright sunny day at the end of the Third Age of Middle Earth, a new unelected king was crowned. His name? Aragorn, son of Arathorn. How did it all happen? Was it all just a dream? I mean, it looked real enough. The guys with the pointed ears were there, the short guys with beards were there, even those weird little hobbit guys were there. Who were these people, this elitist group of carnival freaks who wanted to control the fate of Middle Earth?" I can't say I much agree with its politics, and the same basic joke was made in this McSweeney's piece last year. Still, the Michael Moore parody Fellowship 9/11 is for the most part pretty clever, and worth watching...if nothing else than to see a mean Brad Dourif impression and to hear Gandalf the Grey croon "Let the Eagle Soar."