Recently in Primary Results Category

Whatever President Clinton's recent issues, he's still a much-loved figure down in Puerto Rico, as Sen. Clinton's large victory in the island territory today partially attests. (We're at 68%-32%, with 98% reporting.) Too little, too late, of course -- particularly as Puerto Rico currently doesn't count in the general election -- but at least Sen. Clinton got a chance to go out with a bang.

Update: Some interesting math via Rural Votes: "Spanish-speaking Puerto Rico, obviously, is a place where Limbaugh has no significant listenership, and this provides us a yardstick with which to measure Limbaugh’s actual impact on English-speaking state primaries. In Kentucky for example, on May 20, a full 19 percent of Clinton’s voters said they would not be satisfied with her nomination. On May 13, an equal number - 19 percent - of her own voters in West Virginia said they wouldn’t be satisfied with her nomination. But only five percent in Puerto Rico were in that category. This suggests that 14 percent of Clinton’s vote in recent mainland state primaries consisted of the Limbaugh 'chaos' voters."

"Tonight, Iowa, in the fullness of spring, with the help of those who stood up from Portland to Louisville, we have returned to Iowa with a majority of delegates elected by the American people, and you have put us within reach of the Democratic nomination for president of the United States." After winning Oregon 59-41 (with 94% reporting) and, uh, doing less well in Kentucky (although I was heartened to see he took Louisville), Sen. Obama returns to Iowa with a majority of the pledged delegates, thus effectively sealing up the nomination.

It looks like Sen. Clinton has decided to hang around a few more weeks nonetheless (in part, it seems, to expose the "vast sexist conspiracy" which caused her not to contest caucus states or come up with a plan past Super Tuesday), but the focus for Team Obama is now clearly on John McCain and the GOP. "'I will leave it up to Senator McCain to explain to the American people whether his policies and positions represent long-held convictions or Washington calculations,' Obama's remarks continued, 'but the one thing they don't represent is change.'"

Update: By way of The Late Adopter and sententiae et clamores, The Village Voice's Allison Benedikt puts the lie to Sen. Clinton's grappling with sexism of late: "Currently pregnant with the next generation, let me just say this: There is no greater wish that a mother can have for her daughter than that she will exploit poor people, obliterate Iran, and win rigged class president elections, Putin-style. (Mom, I won 100 percent of the vote!)...This War on Women is just like the War on Christmas: imaginary."

As expected, Sen. Clinton wins the Mountain State handily, taking West Virginia 67%-26%, with 7% For Edwards. (Her main key to victory: The 71% of the WV electorate without a college degree broke for her 71%-29%.) But, alas for Sen. Clinton's hopes for a miracle comeback, this is basically the equivalent of a garbagetime touchdown. And, worse still for Team Clinton, a new poll has Sen. Obama up 20 in the significantly larger state of Oregon, and the supers continue to move toward the presumptive nominee regardless. Today's haul thus far: Obama +3.5. (Rep. Peter Visclosky (IN), DNC member Awais Kaleel, OK State Senator Mike Morgan, WI State Sen. Lena Taylor, and Dem Abroad Christine Marques against a Tennessee UAD for Clinton.)

The night's big political news, however, happened down in Mississippi. In an upset that has stunned and demoralized the RNC, Democrat Travis Childers wins a special election going away, 54-46%, in a strong-conservative district that voted 62-37% for Dubya in 2004. Childers is not only the third Dem to win a safe-GOP district in recent months (following Bill Foster in IL and Don Cazayoux in LA), he was also explicitly painted as an elitist pro-Wright, prObama Dem by the Mississippi GOP. So how's that for an electability argument? (To be fair, Dick Cheney also showed up to stump for Childers' opponent...that might've helped us too.)

With all due respect to the Magnolia State, if the Republicans' tired culture-war strategy didn't play in the most conservative parts of Ole Miss, it's not going to play anywhere this year...not even in West Virginia.

Just to do this properly, Sen. Obama wins North Carolina by 14 and comes within 2 in Indiana, effectively ending the race for the Democratic nomination. (Yes, it was already over, but now it's really, really over.) When I got home late last night, Clinton had cancelled all of her public appearances, and it seemed reality had finally set in. But, no, word this morning is she will press on, and continue to burn money and goodwill for no apparent reason. Still, even if her campaign remains gracelessly in denial, I'd expect high-profile Clinton supporters will soon close the deal for her regardless. (Former Clinton backer George McGovern, for one, has now switched to Obama and is urging her concession.) So, the upshot is we're done here, folks. It's all over but the cryin'. And Senator Barack Obama of Illinois is our Democratic nominee.

Update: Sen. Obama picks up four more supers (one formerly a Clinton supporter, so it's Obama +5 to Clinton's +1), while Sen. Clinton's Senate backers start looking for the exit. And May 20 is the new May 6.

Thank you, Hagatna: Sen. Obama wins the Guam presidential caucuses by seven votes, 50.1%-49.9%. (This means a 2-2 delegate split, but also puts Obama two closer to the magic number of 2025.)

On the super side, Obama picks up Brian Colon of NM, Inez Tenenbaum of SC, and Parris Glendening of MD (the latter two are UADs.) Clinton, meanwhile, gets Jaime Gonzalez of TX and Kathleen Kennedy Townsend of MD (also a UAD). So the day's super tally: Obama +3, Clinton +2. Adding 'em to the post-PA super count, that puts us at Obama 17, Clinton 11 (or Clinton down 23 from her needed 2-1 split.)

Well, I'm sure you watched it too. But, anyway, to recap: In tonight's big contest, the two race horses started out neck-and-neck, and it looked in the early going that an upset might be in order. But, slowly but surely, the plodding, methodical contender pulled away for a small but convincing victory, and that's all she wrote. I'm referring, of course, to Game 2 of the Suns-Spurs series. Why, was there something else going on?

(By the way, in case you didn't know, I'm not sure of the Obama analogue yet, but the San Antonio Spurs are definitely the Clintons of the NBA. Tim Duncan's the Bill of the bunch, the natural talent (with past championships to his name) who whines and works the refs constantly. Bruce Bowen is Hillary, a less-talented workhorse whom people in the media describe with euphemisms like "tenacious", when he's clearly and obviously just a dirty player. And, like the rest of the Clinton campaign, Parker and Ginobli are basically slashers...but let's not belabor it too much.)

At any rate, so, yes, in a huge shocker Senator Clinton won Pennsylvania by ten this evening, 55%-45%. [Update: Since it seems to have confused some Clinton-leaning folk on other blogs, I meant "huge shocker" ironically. See below.] We'll know the delegate spread tomorrow, but, however it turns out and like Ohio six weeks ago, tonight is just another case of Clinton winning the battle and losing the war: There's no way at all she gets enough delegates to become viable again. Simply put, Sen. Obama's previously insurmountable delegate lead is now, to coin a phrase, even insurmountabler. Do I need to link the same post again?

Nevertheless, if you're looking for someone to blame for Obama's loss tonight, look no further than Philadelphia. The City of Brotherly Love broke from the rest of the state and went 2-1 for Obama. And, as every sports fan knows, Philly always loses despite themselves. You can't fight the curse.

In any case, I'd been girding myself for a 15-point margin for Sen. Clinton of late, so, in the grand scheme of things, 55-45 was fine with me (particularly given that the contest seems to have cost Clinton what was left of her bankroll.) So, now, on to Indiana and North Carolina in two weeks, where hopefully this primary -- finally -- comes to an end. Eat, drink, and be merry, Clinton folk, for tomorrow, your candidacy of choice dies.

Update: They're still tallying the delegates, but it's looking like Clinton will remain behind by around 150 pledged delegates overall. In the meantime, Al Giordano crunches the exit poll numbers: "Senator Clinton lost ground in every one of those key foundations of her former base vote...Whether or not the commercial media spins it that way - in her campaign’s lexicon - 'doesn’t matter.' And ye shall know the dumbest and slowest - and intentionally dishonest - political reporters, pundits, bloggers (and former presidential candidates and spouses) by those that argue otherwise."

Update 2: It ain't over yet. This (pre-PA) Youtube suggests a potential path to victory for Clinton. (Here's a hint: The Hartford Convention.)

"Houston is filled with promise. Laredo is a beautiful place." With 88% reporting (56%-44%), Barack Obama has officially won the Texas caucus, and by extension the Lone Star State. What was that Bill Clinton said about Texas again?

At the Iowa county conventions today, as a result of Edwards and other candidate delegates switching their support, Sen. Obama picked up six additional delegates on Clinton (or, to be more exact, 7 to her 1.) "Edwards dropped 8 delegates to 6. Those six will be up for grabs, perhaps, at the Iowa Democratic Party state convention in June." Update: Reports emerge that Obama's Iowa take today could be seven delegates, or even as many as nine. That's an Ohio-sized haul. Update 2: We're going to need a bigger boat: Now, it's Obama +10. Update: Also, +3 in California.

"What we've tried to do is steadily make sure that in each state we are making the case about the need for change in this country. Obviously the people in Mississippi responded." Sen. Obama takes Mississippi handily, winning 60%-38% (with 99% reporting.) This means a probable pick-up for Obama of five more delegates (19-14).

And now, mainly because pundits seemingly can't do math and the Clinton campaign has proven itself utterly shameless in defeat, we're in for six misbegotten weeks of ruthless campaigning until the next test in Pennsylvania. Sen. Obama is up by approximately 160 pledged delegates on Clinton, meaning Clinton has to win every state ahead -- including states she'll be lucky to even come close in, like Oregon, Montana, and South Dakota -- by 67-70% -- margins she has yet to accomplish anywhere but Arkansas. If, for some reason, we want to play by the Clinton metrics, Obama's popular vote lead is at least 680,000 votes in the official tally, but that doesn't include several of the caucus states. Add them and Obama's lead becomes 830,000 votes. And, of course, Obama has won twice as many states.

Now, I for one think there's a good bet Sen. Clinton will win Pennsylvania by an Ohioesque margin. Guess what? It won't matter. It's over. But because the Clinton campaign refuses to face the reality of their situation, and because neither the supers nor the media seem to be inclined to inform them of thus, expect six more grueling weeks of needless intraparty bloodletting.

Sigh...between this and Spitzer's meltdown, it's Christmas in Spring for the GOP right now. Update: In a bit of good news for Sen. Clinton, she gets her own version of the CA recertification bounce, picking up four delegate in Colorado and one in New York as those results become official. Of course, she's still down 155 or so, but I'm sure the Clinton campaign will take solace where they can find it.

The math just got even harder. Sen. Obama wins the Wyoming caucuses 61%-38%, meaning he's picked up three more delegates on Clinton (7-5 + 1 add-on UAD), i.e. 75% of her ostensibly game-changing 4-delegate victory last Tuesday. Next stop, Mississippi on Tuesday.

California officially certifies its delegate count from Super Tuesday, and, as it turns out, Senator Obama has picked up eight more delegates there. That's twice as many as Clinton received on her big "blowout" day of March 4th, when, delegate-wise, she won Ohio and, it seems, lost Texas. Update: Just to clarify, I should say Obama picked up four more delegates in CA, which Clinton in turn lost. So Obama +4, Clinton -4, a.k.a. an eight-delegate swing.

So, how was your evening? It's late, and I just got home, so I'll save a full post for tomorrow. But, in brief: As I said the other day, a knockout punch in either Texas and Ohio would've been grand. Still, Clinton did not win either state by the margins she needed. So, simply put, her campaign from now herein is Dead Woman Walking, mathematically speaking. As such, I'm not too depressed about the Texas and Ohio results, frankly...You can't always get what you want, but we got what we needed, and, even with a 10-point margin in Ohio, Sen. Clinton has only managed to forestall the inevitable.

I am bugged, however, that the Clinton campaign's pathetic shenanigans this week have been seemingly rewarded by the voters, particularly in the Buckeye State. (Late deciders seem to have broke heavily for Clinton in both states.) But, oh well. More tomorrow when we have a fuller picture, and I've had a few hours' rest to steel myself to the now very real possibility of several more weeks of Clinton hacks insulting our intelligence daily with their ridiculous spin.

"It is the place where I feel if things get too hectic, I can come back and get centered, and it will always be in my heart, and I hope if we are successful, I would come to Hawaii. Certainly it would be my preference over Crawford, Texas." And No. 10: Sen. Obama crushes Hillary Clinton in the home state of his youth, 76%-24%.

No. 9, No. 9, No. 9...Sen. Barack Obama wins Wisconsin, the land of Feingold and the La Follettes, going away (58%-41%), and eats even deeper into Sen. Clinton's core constituencies.

Next up, two debates, then the line in the sand: March 4, Ohio, Texas, Rhode Island, and Vermont. These are huge and crucial states, and they will dictate how much longer Sen. Obama has to face a debilitating two-front war. But, I might as well come clean. I've been saying this elsewhere since the Potomac primaries, and now I'll go ahead and say it here: The math is virtually inexorable now, and Sen. Clinton has lost. Her campaign even conceded thus a week ago. It's now just a question of how badly she and her campaign wants Obama to bleed before she drops out. (To his credit, Mitt Romney got out early so as not to hamstring his party's candidate in the general. Sadly, I doubt we can expect the same of Sen. Clinton.)

This is not to say Ohioans, Texans, Rhode Islanders, and Vermonters, to say nothing of Pennsylvanians, Kentuckians, North Carolinians, etc., should now become complacent. Far from it -- now's the time to redouble our efforts, and end this race, sooner rather than later. The tide has turned, and, to quote my former employer (who would tell Sen. Clinton the same), "When your opponent is drowning, throw the son of a bitch an anvil." All that being said, I just don't see Sen. Clinton coming back at this point. And, if she somehow finds a way to wrest the nomination from Obama, it'll have been by dragging the Democratic party so deeply through the mud of asinine smears and obvious half-truths that the nomination will be worthless. It is time for her to go.

It's late, I'm still waiting for the Hawaii results, and I'm still pretty peeved about Clinton's ridiculous plagiarism gambit. But, If you'll forgive the lapse into LotR metaphors, the treason of Saruman, once the noblest and wisest of our order, is almost subdued. The Battle for Middle-Earth is only beginning.

Eight days after the fact, Sen. Clinton picks up a win in New Mexico by 2000 votes (of 150,000 cast), giving her a 2-delegate edge (14 to 12) in the state. But, unfortunately for the Clinton campaign, New Mexico was a caucus state, and thus "not significant." Oh well, sorry, y'all.

And now, 8-for-8. Sen. Obama sweeps the Chesapeake primaries, taking Virginia by 29 (64%-35%), Maryland by 23 (currently 60%-37%), and the District by 51 (75%-24%). Best of all, he won across the board and made clear and undeniable in-roads into Clinton's demographic base. Next stop, Wisconsin and Hawaii, which Sen. Clinton seems to be ceding for her Giulianiesque firewall of Ohio and Texas. (I'm not sure why -- both could feasibly play to her strengths.) Update: Clinton's going to Wisconsin after all.

Capping the night of victories was another splendid speech by Obama, one that clearly and organically weaved some Edwardsian bread-and-butter populism into the existing stump speech. Sen. Obama also spent some time going after John McCain, and, after ekeing out Virginia on his end, McCain returned fire. We still have a ways to go on the Democratic side, of course, and I'm definitely not counting the Clintons out yet. (If anything, they're more dangerous than ever.) But, Obama's definitely got the Big Mo. And, at least during the speeches tonight, it was starting to look and sound like a general election...

Update: The target for the Clinton campaign right now appears to be 56% -- that's the percentage of remaining delegates Senator Clinton need to win to defeat Senator Obama in the overall pledged delegate count. But, according to media poobah Howard Fineman, at least, even the Clinton campaign concedes that's not going to happen, despite all the talk about the firewall strategy in Ohio and Texas. Instead, barring a monumental collapse by the Obama campaign, the Clintons are basically looking for they closest they can get to a photo finish, followed by the superdelegates breaking against the will of the pledged delegates. I seriously doubt that dog will hunt.

Wow. Make that 5-for-5. Senator Obama wins the Maine caucus going away. (Final tally: 59%-40%.) I have to say, I didn't see this one coming -- I expected Sen. Obama to lose close. Either Obama's starting to pick up real momentum, the Clinton campaign is just terrible at caucuses (which doesn't speak well of Sen. Clinton's ability to "manage the bureaucracy"), or everyone severely misunderestimated the impact of the King endorsement.

Well, at any rate, good job by Team Obama in Maine, and hopefully the completed weekend sweep bodes well for Tuesday's big Chesapeake/Beltway primary: Virginia, Maryland, and the District of Columbia. Sen. Obama is favored in all, but, of course, nothing's certain, and the margins matter. (By the way, New Hampshire and Massachusetts? Not to rub it in, but the Pine Tree State just made y'all look kinda silly.)

In the Caribbean, South, Midwest, and West, Senator Obama goes four for four, winning Nebraska (68% to 32%), Washington (68% to 31%), Louisiana (56% to 37%), and the Virgin Islands (90% to 8%) handily. Now, that's a good day's work. (As you can see from the picture, Maine is next...which looks to lean Clinton at the moment. We'll know more tomorrow.)

"There is one thing on this February night that we do not need the final results to know: our time has come. Our time has come, our movement is real, and change is coming to America.” Obama takes the Super Tuesday hit, and not only stands his ground but deals some damage of his own. The result? We need more rounds.

It's Wednesday morning, 3am, so I'll keep it short for now. But, all in all, I'm pretty pleased with how Super Tuesday shook out tonight. Sure, I'd have liked to see Massachusetts, New Jersey, and California in our column, and was rather dismayed when those pesky exit polls -- which had us winning in MA and NJ -- turned out to be bunk. But, around 10pm or so, the tide turned, with Obama racking up a slew of states and drawing particularly notable wins in Connecticut, Colorado, Kansas, Minnesota, and Missouri. California didn't fall, of course, but I'd written it off hours earlier thanks to that early exit poll data.

The thing is, Super Tuesday was meant to be Clinton's knockout punch -- as little as two weeks ago, she was up 20 in the national polls. And, now, Obama is not only still standing, it looks like he may be (ever-so-slightly, of course) in the lead. At the end of the night, we ended up with more states (13 to 8, with NM outstanding) and -- more importantly -- basically split the delegates (we should know the exact figures in the next few days, but the late tally is 841-837 for Obama, and, regardless, all we had to do is stay close.) And, while Senator Clinton's support has held steady, Senator Obama has jumped 15 points nationally in just the past two weeks. Now, the Obama campaign has money to burn and time to spend on a smaller -- and more favorable -- playing field. We have a ways to go yet, but now that we've made it over the Super Tuesday hurdle, time is on our side.

Update: It's still not absolutely official, but Sen. Obama seems to have won more delegates last night. And, as that was kinda the point of the evening, this is very good news.

"My friends, as I said the other week in South Carolina, there is nothing in our country that is inevitable. We can overcome any challenge as long as we keep our courage, and stand by the principles that have made our party and our country great."

Florida votes, and Arizona Senator John McCain is the big winner and -- arguably -- now the prohibitive frontrunner for the Republican nomination (much to the consternation of the conservative base.) Given that he's easily the GOP candidate with the most crossover appeal, that's bad news for the Democrats, particularly if we decide to get behind the one person on this earth (well, two people, counting her husband) who could manage to reunite the abysmally fractured GOP.

Speaking of which, Senator Clinton handily won on the (meaningless) Dem side -- prompting much rejoicing and e-mailing by the Clinton campaign. (Although, in a bit of a shocker, it turns out she actually tied the delegate count with Mike Gravel.) Seriously, though, given that Florida is particularly choice demographic territory for Clinton, she'd probably have won the Sunshine State in any event. (As George Will and Slate have both recently pointed out, Florida is known as "God's Antechamber" for a reason, and, as has been the norm, voters over 60 -- 39% of the voting Dems -- went for Hillary 59%-24%.) But, given that this ended up being basically the name-recognition primary, and that no delegates came of it, I'm not too concerned about the results. On to Super-Tuesday.

Update: Looking over the CNN exit poll numbers for the Dem side, this would seem to be the key stat in viewing both tonight and the road ahead:

When did you decide who to vote for?

Today: (10%): Clinton 34%, Obama 30%
Last 3 Days: (7%): Obama 46%, Clinton 38%
Last Week: (7%): Obama 39%, Clinton 31%
Last Month: (16%): Obama 47%, Clinton 40%
Before That: (33%): Clinton 63%, Obama 27%
Absentee/Early Voter: (26%): Clinton 50%, Obama 31%

So, among voters that have decided since the campaign took off in Iowa, Obama does rather well. It's the long-time deciders and absentees -- 60% of the electorate -- where he seriously fell behind. This would indicate name recognition definitely played its part today, and that actual campaigning in Florida could've made a significant difference. Good to know, as we move forward.

In South Carolina, Barack Obama wins in a rout, beating Hillary Clinton by 28 points and winning more votes than Clinton and Edwards combined. (And, as Andrew Sullivan noted tonight, Obama also scored more Palmetto votes than McCain and Huckabee combined...something to consider for the general election.) Some of the interesting numbers:

CNN projects that Hillary Clinton has won the Nevada caucus. (At 90% and counting, we're at Clinton 51%, Obama 45%, Edwards 4%(!))

Sigh. Well, to be honest, I don't feel all that bad about this loss. I mean, Nevada would have been a great pick-up for Obama, but if he wins my home state of South Carolina next weekend -- which is favorable terrain -- we're still going into February 5 with a 2-2 split. And given that things seem to have been shaking this way in past days, I'm heartened to see Obama managed to keep it relatively close against Clinton. Besides, while Senator Obama was apparently a star in Reno (Obama 46% -- Clinton 31%), he lost big in heavily-populated Clark County (Clinton 55% -- Obama 35%), which is usually most people's experience in Vegas. So be it.

The biggest surprise here, frankly, is the Edwards collapse. Less than 5%? Still, I wouldn't expect him to make any big moves until after South Carolina, if at all.

Looking at the CNN entrance poll numbers, the demographic breakdown remains very troubling. For one, the gender gap continues (Women: Clinton 52%, Obama 35%; White Women: Clinton 57%, Obama 28%.) For another, it looks like the Clinton-Obama generation gap has grown even worse. Note these dismaying stats:

Voters 18-29: Obama 57%, Clinton 30%
Voters 30-44: Obama 42%, Clinton 37%
Voters 45-59: Clinton 46%, Obama 39%
Voters 60+: Clinton 61%, Obama 28%

Voters under 45: Obama 48%, Clinton 34%
Voters over 45: Clinton 54%, Obama 33%

The affiliations:

Democrats: Clinton 51%, Obama 36%
Independents: Obama 46%, Clinton 35%

And then you get the race breakdown:

Whites: Clinton 52%, Obama 31%
African Americans: Obama 79%, Clinton 16%
Hispanics: Clinton 64%, Obama 23%

So -- right now -- it looks to be young people, independents, and African-Americans for Obama, with old people, Latinos, and white women for Clinton. Perhaps most notably, voters under 30 are breaking 2-1 for Obama, while voters over 60 are breaking 2-1 for Clinton. If that dynamic holds, it obviously favors Clinton in this primary season. (Although, if and when those young voters justifiably decide to turn against the process and stay home should Clinton win, given her campaign's scummy tactics, it's all around bad for the Democrats.)

Speaking of which, whatever the demographic breakdown, I have to think the Clinton campaign's lowball maneuvering will redound badly against them as we move forward. Even notwithstanding last weeks' race card wallowing and Giuliani-ish grandstanding, we now have attempts at voter suppression, more false mailers, blatant lying about Obama's record, Yucca and otherwise, union-busting rhetoric, and even anti-Obama robo-calls. If we Dems aren't going to take a stand against this sort of Rovian garbage within our own party, then we've absolutely no business bitching about similar behavior by the GOP.

On to South Carolina.

Update: Hmm, well that's interesting. After all is said and done, it seems Barack Obama actually won the Nevada delegate count, 13-12. "The math turns out to be a bit confusing, but the shorthand is this: The more populous Clark County, which Clinton won, awarded a even number of delegates, and Clinton and Obama split those down the middle. Meanwhile, the more rural areas, which Obama won, awarded an odd number of delegates, which gave Obama the edge. 'We showed real strength statewide,' campaign manager David Plouffe said in the call." Well, ok then. That's a nice gift, but the demographic concerns remain.

Update 2: How bad was the situation on the ground? Bad enough that Obama campaign manager David Plouffe is going on the record about it. At this point, widespread malfeasance by the Clinton campaign sounds eminently plausible.(And what the heck was Bill doing?)

Hrm.

Well, that was unexpected...I must say, if nothing else, "false hopes" had a really good night. But, hey, I guess I should've known better. As The Wire continually reminds us, despite all evidence to the contrary, maybe a new day is never dawning. (You know, I should really develop some new interests. Maybe it's time to become a gardening blog or something.)

Anyway, looking at the numbers, it looks like the difference voters in New Hampshire were women, who returned to Clinton's corner in droves (47% to 34%), and older voters, who've been there all along (65 and over: 48% to 32%, 50-64: 39% to 30%, 40-49: 44% to 33%.) Well, at least the kids are alright. (18-24: 60%-22%, for Obama.)

That all makes a certain amount of sense, I guess. Women more readily see Clinton as a candidate of change by her very nature, and, as I wrote at great length about over the weekend, many older voters seem to buy what she's selling regardless: another eight years of cautious, obfuscating, Grand Theft Auto-blaming and very "experienced" incrementalism.

To be honest, on its face, New Hampshire going Clinton doesn't bother me all that much. It's an older, whiter state, and for all its vaunted independence, it's usually just contrarian for its own sake, like bad Slate columns and Armond White. Once Clinton became the underdog after Iowa, it was a natural pick-up for her.

What does concern me, tho', is the bizarre polling problem we saw tonight. Some polls are occasionally wrong, sure, but every poll -- not one poll, every poll -- had Obama up between five and twelve points this morning. Ok, well, there were a lot of undecided voters, and clearly most of 'em broke for Clinton. So be it. More disconcerting, however, exit polls -- taken after the votes were made, mind you -- also had Obama up by five. So, how did we finish down two at the end of the night (with the polls still getting the GOP race exactly right?) How did every poll miss out on that seven point swing, a swing based on post-voting data? I suppose it's still an open question, but the elephant in the room is the Bradley Effect, and, I gotta say, I'm pretty disgusted right now with my fellow white people. Vote for who you want to vote for, but don't lie about it before or after the fact. If someone has a better explanation about the disparity in exit polls, I'm all ears. Update: Pollster has a good overview of the various prevailing current theories.

As for what explains Clinton's victory, I must confess: even given what I said above, I'm at a bit of a loss. This is mainly because I thought the polls reflected, you know, the actual standings. The only real possible game-changer lately, other than just a collective New Hampshire uprising against media expectations (which is stupid - it was their poll answers creating and driving those expectations), was the "Diner Sob", as Slate is billing it, the other day. Apparently, a sizable majority of New Hampshire's older/women voters looked in to Clinton's heart at that moment, and liked what they saw. Iron Eyes Cody for President! I dunno...admittedly, I'm feeling rather Menckenesque at the moment. Still, I'm reminded of Bernie Birnbaum, John Turturro's character in Miller's Crossing: "What were you gonna do if you caught me? I'd just squirt a few and then you'd let me go again."

Bleah. A no-good, lousy night, to be sure. Unless you're John McCain -- for him, the news is great on both sides of the ledger. If the current paradigm wins, so do Republicans. Now, I have no real inclination to vote Republican, but the fact remains: When it comes to campaign finance reform --the change issue -- McCain has far, far better creds than Clinton.

Still, it's not over yet, and adversity builds character, right? We've split the first two games, and now attention moves to Nevada and my home state of South Carolina. Neither are necessarily unfavorable terrain for Obama, so if he can weather the post-New Hampshire bounce over the next week, we're still good to go. But it's definitely harder now, no doubt. Florence, come to our aid! (For old times' sake, if nothing else.)

By the way, New Hampshire? Eff you, you tired, gaseous windbag of an "independent" state. Robert Frost, Alan Shepard, and Christa McAuliffe notwithstanding, you haven't contributed anything to the polity since Daniel Webster. From now on, I'm hiking in Vermont.

"This feels good. It's just like I imagined it when I was talking to my Kindergarten teacher." As the focus now moves to New Hampshire in four days (here's a good historical overview of the Iowa-to-NH bounce), some interesting facts about Obama's resounding victory in the Iowa Caucus last night: