Recently in Election 2004 Category

"It was a running joke that some of the new faces were 25- to 32-year-old males asking, 'First name, last name?'" A front-page story in today's NYT discloses that the NYPD spied on possible RNC protesters for over a year before the 2004 convention, including several unlikely candidates -- such as Billionaires for Bush -- for anything other than lawful political protest. "'The police have no authority to spy on lawful political activity, and this wide-ranging N.Y.P.D. program was wrong and illegal,' Mr. Dunn [of the ACLU] said. 'In the coming weeks, the city will be required to disclose to us many more details about its preconvention surveillance of groups and activists, and many will be shocked by the breadth of the Police Department's political surveillance operation.'"

According to a new poll by CBS News (whose sampling, admittedly, might be skewed left), Dubya's numbers have hit a new low, with only 34% of the country approving of his performance and 59% disapproving. Well, on the bright side for this administration, at least they've got Bin Laden's vote, which, as Dubya himself now admits, helped him out in 2004.

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They are two several chairs arranged around the center of the room, along with two couches. Under one couch you find Clinton's shoes.

> FILL SHOES

You are unable to fill Clinton's shoes."

This may be the funniest political Internet post I've seen since the Cheney poker game: By way of WebGoddess and from the brain of Defective Yeti, it's the George W. Bush text adventure. Beware of lurking grues, special prosecutors, and that goshdarned Constitution.

"We...know that Bush 'won' Ohio by 51-48%, but statewide results were not matched by the court-supervised hand count of the 147,400 absentee and provisional ballots in which Kerry received 54.46% of the vote. In Cuyahoga County, Ohio the number of recorded votes was more than 93,000 greater than the number of registered voters. More importantly national exit polls showed Kerry winning in 2004. However, It was only in precincts where there were no paper trails on the voting machines that the exit polls ended up being different from the final count." None dare call it stolen? A new report by Pomona professor Dennis Loo offers considerable evidence that election 2004 witnessed more GOP monkey business than has been previously reported in the mainstream press.

Two intriguing links from today's Cliopatria: First, Inside Higher Ed's Scott Lemee surveys the hubbub surrounding an apparent Holocaust-related hoax perpetrated by Kavalier & Klay author Michael Chabon. And, elsewhere, What's the Matter With Kansas author Thomas Frank tries to figure out what's the matter with liberals, and concludes we play far too easily into the "out-of-touch elitist" stereotype.

"The Committee for the Study of the American Electorate reported yesterday that more than 122 million people voted in the November election, a number that translates into the highest turnout -- 60.7 percent -- since 1968." The Dems didn't do so hot that year, either, but then we had Tet, Chicago, and the murders of both RFK and MLK. How are we going to answer for 2004? Also, "[t]he report noted that although turnout reached new heights, more than 78 million Americans who were eligible to vote stayed home on Election Day. The group estimated that Bush won just 30.8 percent of the total eligible voters."

In a positive sign for more Congressional feistiness this next term, Dems force a two-hour debate over voting irregularities in Ohio. (Unlike in 2001 -- as featured in the opening of Fahrenheit 9/11 -- the House Dems found a Senate backer this time in Barbara Boxer. For his part, Kerry took a pass.) The GOP may chalk it up to simple sour grapes, but Congress desperately needs to talk about these issues: The American voting infrastructure was an international embarrassment in 2000 -- that we had four years to solve the problem and didn't speaks even worse of our self-appointed role as exemplars of democracy. If we can handle millions of ATM transactions every day, complete with paper trail, then surely we can do the same for millions of votes one Tuesday in November.

As we Dems still mull over November's ignominy, Newsweek releases the details of an 11/9 interview with John Kerry in order to flog their upcoming election book. "He never quite came out and said it, but Kerry sounded very much like a man who was running for president again...Some of Kerry's followers are already plotting how Kerry can defeat Hillary Clinton in the Iowa caucuses in 2008." Hmmm...I really think we need a lot more intraparty soul-searching before we pin our 2008 hopes on those two candidates...at this point, that sounds like a recipe for disaster.

The intro sums it up: "With 573 newly discovered ballots roiling the second recount in the race for governor of Washington, the Republican Party went to court Thursday seeking a restraining order that would halt the counting of those votes." Ah, the shadiness knows no bounds.

Even in success, it seems, the Right can't be relied upon to play by the rules. As the House GOP moves to shield Tom DeLay from the Rostenkowski rule they passed eleven years ago (mandating that an indicted leader step down), Senate Republicans look to the "nuclear option" for ending filibusters of judicial nominees, which would allow said filibusters to be ended with a simple 51-vote majority. Finally, in a dubious display of bipartisanship, the Bushies aim to peel off one more Senate vote by offering Democratic Senator Ben Nelson the Agriculture post.

Values, schmalues. Rick Perlstein suggests in the Village Voice that, in the end, Election 2004 came down to GOP avarice.

"Let's put our heads together, and start a new country up..." Well, it's been a week. So now what? Howard Dean says put me in charge (Sure, he can't be worse than McAuliffe), James Carville says let's find a new story (and Keep It Simple, Stupid), and John Kerry, well, he's "fired up" about returning to the Senate (?)...and has started contemplating a 2008 run.

Some choice words on moral values and politics, courtesy of Bob Dylan's Chronicles (my current read):

"Clausewitz's book seemed outdated, but there's a lot in it that's real, and you can understand a lot about conventional life and the pressures of environment by reading it. When he claims that politics has taken the place of morality and politics is brute force, he's not playing. You have to believe it. You do exactly as you're told, whoever you are. Knuckle under or you're dead. Don't give me any of that jazz about hope or nonsense about righteousness. Don't give me that dance that God is with us, or that God supports us. Let's get down to brass tacks. There isn't any moral order. You can forget that. Morality has nothing in common with politics. It's not there to transgress. It's either high ground or low ground. This is the way the world is and nothing's gonna change it. It's a crazy, mixed up world and you have to look it right in the eye. Clausewitz in some ways is a prophet. Without realizing it, some of the stuff in his book can shape your ideas. If you think you're a dreamer, you can read this stuff and realize you're not even capable of dreaming. Dreaming is dangerous. Reading Clausewitz makes you take your own thoughts a little less seriously." (Chronicles, p. 45)

From Boing Boing and the AP: "A computer error with a voting machine cartridge gave President Bush 3,893 extra votes in a Gahanna [Ohio] precinct. Franklin County's unofficial results gave Bush 4,258 votes to Democratic challenger John Kerry's 260 votes in Precinct 1B. Records show only 638 voters cast ballots in that precinct." Hmmm...I for one don't think it's feasible that the entirety of Dubya's winning popular vote margin is manufactured. (Right now, I'm more inclined to side with Jane Smiley and the Brits.) But factor in Greg Palast's discussion of Ohio chads to the equation and, I'll admit, one starts to wonder.

Some pop culture quotes that, applicable or not, have been flitting about my head the past few days:

"And that, I think, was the handle---that sense of inevitable victory over the forces of Old and Evil. Not in any mean or military sense; we didn't need that. Our energy would simply prevail. There was no point in fighting---on our side or theirs. We had all the momentum; we were riding the crest of a high and beautiful wave. So now, less than five years later, you can go up on a steep hill in Las Vegas and look West, and with the right kind of eyes you can almost see the high-water mark---the place where the wave finally broke and rolled back."
- Hunter S. Thompson, Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas

"Where is the horse and the rider?

Where is the horn that was blowing?

They've passed like rain on the mountain, like wind in the meadow.

The days have gone down in the West, behind the hills, into shadow."

- Theoden, The Two Towers

"Ladies and gentlemen, er, we've just lost the picture, but, uh, what we've seen speaks for itself. The Corvair spacecraft has been taken over -- 'conquered', if you will -- by a master race of giant space ants. It's difficult to tell from this vantage point whether they will consume the captive earth men or merely enslave them. One thing is for certain, there is no stopping them; the ants will soon be here. And I, for one, welcome our new insect overlords. I'd like to remind them that as a trusted TV personality, I can be helpful in rounding up others to toil in their underground sugar caves."
- Kent Brockman, "Deep Space Homer" (This last one birddogged, after much mutual quoting, by Mark at Nofeblog.)

"I earned capital in the campaign, political capital, and now I intend to spend it." (For some reason, I'm reminded of Homer Simpsons's cabin fever..."I have powers...political powers!") To his credit, Dubya gives us fair warning in his press conference today about what to expect from the coming second term. Some choice Dubya quotes, via Value Judgment: "Now that I've got the will of the people at my back, I'm going to start enforcing the one-question rule. That was three questions." or "Again, he violated the one-question rule right off the bat. Obviously you didn't listen to the will of the people." Also, by way of Looka: "I will reach out to every one who shares our goals." The rest of us, it seems, might be in for some trouble.

So, according to a CNN poll today, 51% of the country are optimistic about the election results (surprise, surprise), and 57% of the country "expect Bush to unite the nation during his second term." You think? Well, as Albert Einstein aptly noted, "insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result."

One bright spot concerning the next four years: Apparently, John Ashcroft isn't sticking around for a second Dubya term. His possible replacements include deputy Larry Thompson, Dubya stooge Marc Racicot, or White House counsel Alberto Gonzalez (the torture memo guy...he'll fit right in.)

Hope is on the...wait, what's this? Oops, sorry about that. Turns out Hope took a wrong turn and got lost somewhere back there in Idiotville. Welcome to Despairtown, baby.

So, that's that, then...the Idiot Wind blows anew. The American electorate has spoken and -- despite all the shadiness and incompetence of the past four years -- has given Dubya and his cronies the imprimatur to go hog-wild. 51-48%...this is pretty much a mandate, folks. (Big of those Red Staters to ensure that we will be woefully unprepared for the next terrorist attack on a Blue State.) Y'know, H.L. Mencken's whole Tyranny of the Booboisie schtick has always grated on my lefty sensibilities, but at this point I have to admit he may have been on to something.

Ugh. I'm too young to remember 1984 very well, but I'm curious as to how last night and this morning compared for America's Left. (I've since been reminded by several people I trust that 1968 and 1972 were much more grievous blows.) Thing is, 2004 started out with such promise over here. But, right around the time I ended up on crutches in May, events personal and political took a nasty turn, and the past few months have been some of the most dismal I can remember. Now, it seems, I may just look back on this time as relatively calm and worry-free.

But, ok, enough wallowing...let's start taking it frame-by-frame. Given the war, the economy, and Dubya's obvious incompetence, how on Earth did we lose this election? Well, give credit where credit is due...all this exit-talk of "moral values" proves that Karl Rove pulled off his gambit: He got the extra 4 million evangelical votes he was targeting, partly, it seems, by judiciously invoking rampant anti-gay hysteria. Yet, for some reason or another -- a lousy ground game, perhaps? -- the Dems inexplicably didn't counter with extra votes of our own.

Where do we go from here? The Dems are facing an ugly Rule of Four...We lost four seats in the Senate, at least four seats in the House, and likely four seats in the Supreme Court. Whatsmore, we now appear officially dead in the water in the South and Midwest. And, with Kerry and Daschle gone, our standard-bearers now appear to be Hillary Clinton (about whom the country has already made up its mind), John Edwards (whom I still admire, but he couldn't carry his home state), and Barrack Obama (who's probably too inexperienced to make much headway in 2008.)

Obviously, it's now well past time for the serious party overhaul we should've began last cycle, when Al Gore had an election stolen from him that he should have won hands down. Daschle & Gephardt are already in the dustbin of history, and Terry McAuliffe should probably follow them there. I for one don't think Howard Dean was or is the answer, but he's one of the only people injecting new blood and enthusiasm into the party right now, so he should have a seat at the table. Right now, I think Edwardsian populism is our strongest ideological card, but as I said, it didn't seem to make much headway last night.

Silver lining? Yeah, right. Well, as this Washington Monthly forum noted in September, second terms are notoriously scandal-prone (Watergate, Iran-Contra, Monica), partly out of press boredom, and Dubya's ilk seem particularly scandal-worthy...perhaps we'll finally hear a little more about Halliburton. I'm sure there'll be no shortage of horrifying policy decisions emanating from this administration that'll keep lefty blogs like this one in business. And, on a purely selfish note, my likely dissertation topic on the fortunes of progressivism in the twenties is now seeming much more sexy in the wake of last night's 1928-like cultural divide. Of course, none of these are really any consolation at all.

At any rate, I generally believe that America tends to get the president it deserves. So, God help us, we've brought this upon ourselves. And now, for we 48%, the hard work begins...we have to lick our wounds, get our act together, and figure out how we can best combat the rightward drift that's afflicting our nation. Alas, I fear Dubya will do much of the heavy lifting for us, by running the nation further into the ground over the next four years. Still, we gotta keep on keeping on, y'all. I do not believe this darkness will endure.

Well, fuck. Here we go again. At 3:10am, Ohio is still up in the air, and may well be for days, as we wait for the provisional ballots to be counted. Right now, Dubya's up by 140,000 votes with 99% reporting, which means Kerry has to run the table with those 175,000 provisionals to go over the top. Doable, sure, but we're definitely running really low on ammo at this point.

I'll save the real post-mortem for when the winner's declared (and I'm less tired), but obviously both my earlier confidence and most of today's exit polls were, um, somewhat off. So, more tomorrow. For now, I'm off to bed, where I'm going to try not to dwell on the future of the Supreme Court.

Update: 3:49am...Oof, there went Daschle. I think it's safe to say at this point that our party is in disarray. Still, given that 51% of the electorate signed off on four more years of Dubya tonight, despite the arrogance and incompetence displayed by this White House since January 2001...well, perhaps we Dems are destined to remain a minority party for some time to come.

[Scroll down this post for exit poll updates.] The 2pm exit polls should be out now...I'll post 'em as soon as I find 'em (or when Jack Shafer of Slate divulges them.) Right now, Drudge is leading with the following: "KERRY CAMPAIGN FINDS COMFORT IN FIRST BATCH OF EXIT POLLS. Election 2004 has been rocked with first wave of exit polls which show Kerry competitive in key states, campaign and media sources tell DRUDGE. National Election Pool -- representing six major news organizations -- shows Kerry in striking distance -- with small lead -- in Florida and Ohio." Sounds like music to my ears, but what's this talk of striking distance? Drudge makes it sound as if Kerry was expected to lose. Update: Ok, here they are, courtesy of dKos. Apparently, they ratio was skewed 59-41 women to men, for what it's worth:

So, as of right now, Kerry's up in all three prongs of the trifecta (Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida), and doing well in Michigan, New Mexico, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and New Hampshire. Iowa's tied, and Dubya's got Arizona and Louisiana locked up with Colorado in play. Hey, it's early yet, but so far, so good. Let's get those 4pm numbers!

Update 2: More from Drudge on the Senate Races: "Senate races: Thune +4 Castor +3 Burr +6 Bunning +6 Coburn +6 Demint +4 Salazar +4..." Thune (SD, v. Daschle), Burr (NC, v. Bowles), Bunning (KY, v. Mongiardo), Coburn (OK, v. Carson ), and Demint (SC, v. Tenenbaum) are GOP. Castor (FL, v. Martinez) and Salazar (CO, v. Coors) are Dems.

Update 3: Slate's Shafer has somewhat different morning numbers. His (that differ) are below. New states in bold:

So, I don't know what's going on over there in Edwards Country, but otherwise, these are better numbers for Bush...he's pulling away in Colorado and closing the gap in the Trifecta and Wisconsin. Phew...and more numbers in 15-30 minutes...if I can find them!

Update 4: Some good news on Florida, via MyDD: Hispanics in Florida are voting 53-46 for Bush (The Cuban breakdown is 68-32). This is significantly better for Kerry than the 2000 numbers: 65-35 and 83-17 for Dubya respectively.

Update 5: A friend of mine in the program alerted me to Wonkette's numbers, which are also slightly different...I don't know if these are the 4pm numbers or not, so I'll just go ahead and post them, new states in bold. Update 6: These are confirmed as the 4pm numbers:

Update 7: Late numbers via Wonkette:

Update 8: Ok, one last batch from dKos, and then I'm off to the local grad student watering hole to watch the real numbers come in. All in all, it's looking pretty good for Kerry -- he's still leading in the Trifecta, the Michigan-Wisconsin axis, and New Mexico. But let's keep our fingers crossed that there isn't a Diebold surprise in the works. Here they are -- I'll see y'all on the flip-side:

Ok, I can now guarantee at least one vote for the Kerry-Edwards ticket in New York. (Of course, the guy in front of me picked Nader, so it's neck-and-neck in the Empire State in the early going...)

Well, the Redskins did their part...now it's up to us. My predictions (re: wishful thinking) for tomorrow (and keep in mind I had Gore winning the electoral vote and Dubya winning the popular vote last time around):

• Thanks to an almost 60% turnout, Kerry wins bigger than expected, carrying between 300 and 315 electoral votes and 51% of the popular vote to Dubya's 48%. [He's pulling 298 in the final polls and seems to have the Mo, so this isn't completely out of left field...particularly once you factor in the mobile vote.]



• The night also ends earlier than expected, with Kerry winning the treasured trifecta of Pennsylvania, Florida, and Ohio. Or, if Dubya's Diebold minions manage to steal Ohio, Kerry offsets with Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Iowa. [I really hope we don't have to wait for the Hawaii vote to come in, although I guess I'd prefer that to another recount fiasco.]



• In the Senate, I think the GOP will almost assuredly keep control, or at most slip into a 50-50 Edwards-breaking tie. Daschle will eke by in his close race thanks to the high turnout. Alas, Democrat contenders Mongiardo in KY, Tenenbaum in SC, and Carson in OK will all fall after spirited contests. That being said, I'll say that Erskine Bowles of NC will be a new Democratic face in the Senate, that Pete Coors goes down in Colorado, and that tomorrow night will obviously be Obamatastic.



• In the House, unfortunately, the GOP will begin its second decade in power, thanks in part (as the Post noted) to DeLay's gerrymandered Texas. Ah, well, baby steps...we'll get the Hammer and his cronies out in 2006.

Well, if nothing else, it should be a lively evening, and I for one am eagerly anticipating Dubya's Rove-penned concession speech. So, until tomorrow, vote early, vote often, and vote Kerry-Edwards!

until the American people crawl out of the television set and kick this godawful administration to the curb. I know Dubya is up ever so slightly in the polls, but ties generally go to the challenger, and, at this point I still feel pretty confident that Kerry is going to win next Tuesday. (Then again, I've felt that way since the primaries ended, which probably has more to do with my inability to conceive of this nation actually choosing Dubya than anything else.) And, with Big Bill back in the game to help close the deal in swing states (something Gore should have considered more seriously in 2000), I think we're good to go. Hope is on the way, y'all.

Remember how much was made of Kerry saying Iraq had cost $200 billion in the debate? Well, "the Bush administration intends to seek about $70 billion in emergency funding for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan early next year, pushing total war costs close to $225 billion since the invasion of Iraq." $225 billion...for that kind of cheddar, you'd think the Bushies could at least have locked down those 380 tons of lethal ordnance, eh?

Just in case anybody needed it spelled out, Rehnquist's recent health problems make it explicit: next week's vote will in fact determine the Supreme Court. It'd be hard to find a judge more Right-Wing than the Chief here, but I'm sure a second Dubya administration would do its damnedest to find one nevertheless.

"'There's not a chance in the world, I don't think, of the House turning over,' political analyst Charles E. Cook Jr. said last week." The Post examines Democratic prospects in the House and finds that "the combination of Republican firepower, Democratic miscues and a controversial Republican redistricting plan in Texas virtually assures the continuation of GOP rule."

By way of Looka and The Nation, 100 Facts and 1 Opinion: The Non-Arguable Case Against the Bush Administration. If you know any undecideds out there, this might be a good one to share.

Biden, Holbrooke, Biden, Holbrooke...Richardson? The Washington Post starts handicapping Kerry's possible Cabinet choices. "Kerry has told friends he wants to tap a Republican for one of the top national security posts, preferably defense or state. Those under consideration include Sens. Chuck Hagel (Neb.) and Richard G. Lugar (Ind.), as well as former senator Warren Rudman." Somehow I think the GOP won't return the favor should Dubya win.

A new study by the Program on International Policy Attitudes at the University of Maryland finally figures out the crux of Dubya's support: the misinformed. "75% of Bush supporters continue to believe that Iraq was providing substantial support to al Qaeda, and 63% believe that clear evidence of this support has been found. Sixty percent of Bush supporters assume that this is also the conclusion of most experts, and 55% assume, incorrectly, that this was the conclusion of the 9/11 Commission." And that's just the beginning, folks.

In a Nickelodeon online poll, nearly 400,000 American children pick Kerry over Dubya 57%-43%. "Nickelodeon has held a "Kids' Vote" every election year since 1988, and kids have correctly predicted the winner of the general elections for the last four U.S. presidential campaigns."

The Sinclair Broadcast Group fires their Washington bureau chief, Jon Leiberman, after he makes his displeasure about their right-wing proselytizing known to the Baltimore Sun. Whatsmore, the wingnut network is playing hardball: "Sinclair would not waive his noncompete agreement, which means he cannot work for a broadcast outlet in any market that has a Sinclair station." Hmmm...well, two (and more) can play at that game. Update: Sinclair buckles.

In "something of a surprise," the Supreme Court authorizes a three-judge district court to review its earlier decision upholding Tom DeLay's partisan gerrymandering of Texas. It's too late for 2004, but perhaps this will bear fruit before 2006, as the Hammer's other shady dealings come to light.

"We look back on the past four years with hearts nearly breaking, both for the lives unnecessarily lost and for the opportunities so casually wasted. Time and again, history invited George W. Bush to play a heroic role, and time and again he chose the wrong course. We believe that with John Kerry as president, the nation will do better." The New York Times endorses John Kerry for President. Not much of a surprise, sure, but still worth reading.

"[Bruce] Bartlett, a 53-year-old columnist and self-described libertarian Republican who has lately been a champion for traditional Republicans concerned about Bush's governance, went on to say: 'This is why George W. Bush is so clear-eyed about Al Qaeda and the Islamic fundamentalist enemy. He believes you have to kill them all. They can't be persuaded, that they're extremists, driven by a dark vision. He understands them, because he's just like them...This is why he dispenses with people who confront him with inconvenient facts...He truly believes he's on a mission from God. Absolute faith like that overwhelms a need for analysis.'" Ron Suskind, co-author of The Price of Loyalty, delves into the sadly myopic halls of Dubya's faith-based presidency (and attempts to explain why our current Prez can't distinguish between Sweden and Switzerland...no one in the White House ever openly challenges his ignorance.)

Brent Scowcroft, former National Security Advisor and consigliere to Bush I, decries Dubya's diplomacy in the Financial Times, calling Iraq a "failed venture" and questioning this administration's penchant for unilateralism.

"CARLSON: You need to get a job at a journalism school, I think. STEWART: You need to go to one." Sent to me by a friend in the program here, Jon Stewart and Tucker Carlson battle it out on Crossfire. (More here.) I wish I'd seen this live...the transcript is definitely worth a read. "CARLSON: You had John Kerry on your show and you sniff his throne and you're accusing us of partisan hackery? STEWART: Absolutely...You're on CNN. The show that leads into me is puppets making crank phone calls." Update: See it here, via High Industrial.

Well, Dubya's still up slightly in the polls right now, but Republican pollster Frank Luntz has nevertheless sounded the warning bells for the GOP. "Step by step, debate-by-debate, John Kerry has addressed and removed many remaining doubts among uncommitted voters. My own polling research after each debate suggests a rather bleak outlook for the Bush candidacy: many who still claim to be 'undecided' are in fact leaning to Mr. Kerry and are about ready to commit."

"Less than a day after President Bush implied that Senator John Kerry lacked 'fiscal sanity,' the Bush administration said on Thursday that the federal government had hit the debt ceiling set by Congress [for the fourth time in three years] and would have to borrow from the civil service retirement system until after the elections." As this article goes on to note, the Congressional GOP kicked the vote on this matter until after Election Day, so Dubya wouldn't get any bad press. Under this president, the national debt has increased 40%, to $7.4 trillion.

"This is one of those Bush/Cheney invitation-only lovefests where the president could walk out in his boxer shorts and speak in pig Latin and the crowd would still chant 'four more years.'" With the debates over, it's shore-up-the-base time for Dubya (Hence, the return of the dreaded "L-Word".) And, along those lines, evangelical leaders are working hard to get believers out for Bush. Update: Liberal Christians push back.

"The senator now says we'd have to pass some international truth standard." Um, well, yes, we do. As Will Saletan points out, in the final three weeks of the campaign, Dubya is now explicitly running against reality. The reality is, it's time for this faith-based administration to go.

Well, to no one's surprise, I think John Kerry won again. But, while I'd like to say that the Senator knocked this final debate in Tempe, Arizona out of the park, frankly, he didn't. In the early going, I thought he seemed tired and slightly discombobulated, and, at times when a concise rebuttal could have scored some serious points, Kerry's answers often seemed more wordy and circuitous than necessary. On the other hand, I thought this was Dubya's best performance - he was still smirking and guffawing too much, still distorting the facts, still running from his record, and still demonizing his opponent like the best of 'em, but at least he seemed in full possession of his faculties this time around (perhaps the wire was working tonight.) I did think that Kerry warmed up in the middle third, but he lost focus again during the final questions (Native American blessings? Idears?) That being said, given the relative lack of drama tonight and the playoff baseball on FOX, I highly doubt this final debate will end up altering the current campaign dynamic much.

So there you have it, folks. Barring an October Surprise in the next three weeks, it now all comes down to the ground game, and -- given what we've been hearing regarding voter registration, given the white-hot contempt towards Dubya held by Dems and the ambivalence with which fiscal conservatives and many veterans view this administration, and given the usual tendency of undecideds to break towards the challenger -- turnout is a factor which John Kerry should win handily (barring Diebold shenanigans.) It ain't over yet, to be sure, but right now I'd say that, despite tonight's missed opportunities, John Kerry and John Edwards have put themselves in a solid position to win with their cumulative debate performance. The election is too close to call, definitely, but at this point I feel pretty confident our nation will make the right decision on Nov 2.

"Senator Charles E. Grassley needed every possible vote to pass his mammoth corporate tax bill. So he was more than willing to accept Zell Miller's plea on behalf of imported ceiling fans...[This] provision is just one tiny example of how the need to solve a narrow tax problem in 2002 gave birth to the biggest free-for-all in corporate lobbying that Congress has experienced in nearly 20 years." The NYT conducts a post-mortem of the pork-bloated corporate tax legislation passed by Congress on Monday.

So apparently the Sinclair Broadcast Group, a right-wing-flunky television conglomerate who previously refused to air a Nightline on fallen soldiers in Iraq, will show an anti-Kerry hatchet-job on its swing state affiliates in the next two weeks. Well, I must say, that's quite an end-run around the equal time rule, if not a blatant misuse of the public airwaves. Perhaps the FCC can extricate themselves from their shock over Janet Jackson's breast long enough to look into this.

Looking to recess in time for some electioneering, the House and Senate both pass a pork-swollen corporate tax measure by comfortable margins. "[C]ritics -- including budget watchdogs, liberal activists and Treasury Secretary John W. Snow -- decried what they saw as a cornucopia of special-interest tax cuts that would complicate the tax code, favor companies doing business overseas and ultimately worsen the budget deficit. Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) pronounced it 'disgraceful' and 'a classic example of the special interests prevailing over the people's interest.'"

"On a bright sunny day at the end of the Third Age of Middle Earth, a new unelected king was crowned. His name? Aragorn, son of Arathorn. How did it all happen? Was it all just a dream? I mean, it looked real enough. The guys with the pointed ears were there, the short guys with beards were there, even those weird little hobbit guys were there. Who were these people, this elitist group of carnival freaks who wanted to control the fate of Middle Earth?" I can't say I much agree with its politics, and the same basic joke was made in this McSweeney's piece last year. Still, the Michael Moore parody Fellowship 9/11 is for the most part pretty clever, and worth watching...if nothing else than to see a mean Brad Dourif impression and to hear Gandalf the Grey croon "Let the Eagle Soar."

An hour after tonight's town hall debate in St. Louis, the immediate spin seems to be that it was a draw, mainly because Dubya didn't scowl and sputter to the extent he did last time around. (The "soft bigotry of low expectations" strikes again.) But it must be a Two Americas thing, 'cause that's not the debate I saw...most of the time I was waiting for Rove and Cheney to run on stage, hold a light to Dubya's eyes, and squirt some water in his mouth. As before, John Kerry radiated calm, determination, and a quick, roving intelligence. In a word, leadership. Dubya, on the other hand, was once again all hat and no cattle, trying to shirk, smirk, weasel, bluster, and lie his way through the proceedings. "Flip-flopper," "global test," tax-and-spend, etc...Dubya sought to evade every single question about his dismal record with a insult or a threat, even going so far as to throw around "Liberal" desperately, a word still verboten since his Daddy ran it through the mud in '88.

Kerry's been surging since last Thursday, and I expect it'll continue after tonight. But I confess, I really can't wrap my mind around how anyone could have watched tonight's event and think Bush would be the better choice between these two men. With the possible exception of the canned Red Sox quip, there wasn't a moment when Kerry didn't seem presidential and didn't hold the upper hand. And, as for Dubya...based on tonight, I wouldn't trust this guy to run the local chapter of the Elks, much less the Oval Office. No mistakes made at all, Mr. President? Who wants a President so blatantly unreflective about life-and-death decisions? I mean, he could have at least tried to look one up on the Internets. Would forgetting about your timber company count as a mistake?

That being said, I think we can all breathe a sigh of relief that, when considering the inevitable Supreme Court appointments over the next four years, Dubya has at least promised not to overturn Dred Scott v. Sandford. Phew! Say what you will about Dubya's godawful judicial nominees, at least we know they'll hold up the Thirteenth Amendment. (Civil rights and civil liberties, of course, are another matter...) Update: Ok, now I get it. It was a coded pro-life message to the right-wing fundies. (Via Blivet.) Update 2: Tim Noah talks more about Dred.

What do the Bushies do with their backs to the wall? Why, lie, of course. "From the beginning of the year, the White House has charted new ground with the sweep of its negative campaigning...[but now] several analysts say, Mr. Bush pushed the limits of subjective interpretation and offered exaggerated or what some Democrats said were distorted accounts of Mr. Kerry's positions on health care, tax cuts, the Iraq war and foreign policy."

Don't say Britney didn't try to warn you, Mr. President. Republicans and campaign aides fret over the consequences of Dubya's isolation thus far.

"This administration is amazingly inept and incompetent. John Ashcroft in charge of justice? The man thinks dancing is a sin." Following in the footsteps of the Boss and similar remarks in Rolling Stone, Mike Mills of R.E.M. again makes the case against Dubya in the Orlando Sentinel.

Tim Noah of Slate continues to connect the dots of Tom DeLay's attempted bribery of fellow congressman Nick Smith.

Sent to me by way of Raza at High Industrial: Is Bush Wired? Hmmm...I see two major problems with this particular conspiracy theory. For one, given how much Dubya is photographed, an earpiece would be extremely hard to hide. For another, if Dubya were being prompted from afar, one would think he'd be much more articulate than he in fact is most of the time. Update: Salon follows the meme.

"The global test is the measurement of the president's assertions against the real world, the world you and I can see. This is the test Bush has failed." Will Saletan dispels the "global test" canard that the GOP has been latching on to since last Thursday.

Yesterday, Paul Bremer -- Dubya's former chief man in Iraq -- admitted in remarks intended for a private audience that many more troops were needed on the ground after Saddam's fall to stave off looting and lawlessness. Today, a report by Charles Duelfer -- the chief weapons inspector in Iraq (after the departed David Kay, who's already quit the WMD party line) -- concludes "that Saddam Hussein posed a diminishing threat at the time the United States invaded and did not possess, or have concrete plans to develop, nuclear, chemical or biological weapons." How many more "failures of judgment" in Iraq, to put it charitably, do we need to see from these jokers?

Well, to my partisan eye, Dick Cheney proved time and time again in tonight's sole veep debate that he's not only an inveterate liar but a major-league asshole. (Yeah, big time.) Iraq ("It's going great!"), Osama ("We never stopped going after him!"), the homefront ("Things are looking up!"), you name it...the guy just seems to have no compunction about dissembling flat-out to the American people. Said the veep early on, "The senator has got his facts wrong. I have not suggested there's a connection between Iraq and 9/11." Really, Dick? How were we supposed to take Saddam "had long-established ties with Al Qaeda" then? Similarly, the audacity of Dick Cheney attacking John Kerry for voting against weapons systems he himself opposed is simply staggering.

From lies to misdirection. How did Cheney try to explain away Halliburton's sweetheart no-bid Iraq contracts, and the subsequent looking askance at their egregious overbilling of the American people? "Um, John, I've never seen you around the Senate before." (Not true, of course, but nice of Dick to send voters to the Soros-run FactCheck.com rather than FactCheck.org, though.) And, when Edwards skewered the veep with his own voting record from back in the day -- no to Head Start, Meals on Wheels, and the Education Dept, no to MLK Day and to condemning apartheid(?!) -- what was Cheney's answer? "Oh, I think his record speaks for itself." You're damn right it does, as does yours.

All that being said, I thought Edwards missed a few chances to put the hurt on Cheney in the early going, and should have responded harder to the ridiculous "facing-up-to-Howard Dean" riff. And he didn't really hit his stride until the domestic-policy-oriented second half, when less-interested swing voters out there had probably started tuning out. (Conversely, I thought Cheney self-destructed for awhile there, mumbling about No Child Left Behind in a question about jobs.) So, while my gut (and the insta-polling) say Edwards took this one, I'm guessing the numbers in the next few days will show a draw, if only because Cheney seemed at least somewhat cognizant of the world around him, unlike his running mate. Next stop: Friday.

"The 50-50 split is not between Democrats and Republicans, but those who vote and those who don't. That's right: nearly 50% of eligible voters chose not to vote in 2000. The underlying challenge of our democracy is to change this non-participation and to ensure that the core values of citizenship and active participation in the electoral process overshadow the domination of big money and corporate power." Sent to me by Chris at Do You Feel Loved, the inimitable Bill Bradley emerges from hiding to admire the Vote for Change tour in USA Today.

True to form, "House Republicans are working to eliminate or dilute provisions in a new corporate tax bill aimed at cracking down on illegal shelters." This despite the fact that a "study last week by Citizens for Tax Justice, a liberal research organization, reported that 82 of the nation's most profitable companies paid no corporate taxes in at least one of the last three years." Say what they will about Dubyanomics, it is patently obvious once again that the Republican Party does not represent the best interests of you, I, or the vast majority of this nation. Vote 'em out, already.

"So am I with you or am I against? I don't think it's that easy, we're lost in regret." This line (from "The Outsiders," featuring A Tribe Called Quest's Q-Tip) emerges as the central theme in Around the Sun -- R.E.M.'s 13th album -- which was released today. And, while it may take a few more listens than usual to differentiate among the many glum mid-tempo tracks on this album, I'd say Around the Sun is easily R.E.M.'s most cohesive album since Monster. Peter Buck, Mike Mills, and new drummer Bill Rieflin have finally emerged with a confident sound that incorporates the musical experimentation of Up and Reveal with the classic jingly-jangly R.E.M. we all remember from the Bill Berry era. In fact, I think Around the Sun compares favorably to the Automatic days, when the Athens boys enjoyed their widest popularity stateside with a similarly disconsolate set of songs.

Early word on Around the Sun was that we were in for a very political album, one swept up in and honed on progressive outrage over Dubya excess. And, while such sentiments appear explicitly on "Final Straw" (released in 2002 during the build-up to the war in Iraq) and "I Wanted to Be Wrong" ("We can't approach the Allies because they seem a little peeved."), Michael Stipe's political sermonizing is never as overt as, on say, "Exhuming McCarthy," "Cuyahoga," or "Welcome to the Occupation" in the Life's Rich Pageant/Document era.

Instead, for R.E.M. this time around, the political is personal. In fact, the band doesn't seem angry so much as disheartened. From the opening track (and first single) "Leaving New York" ("It's easier to leave than to be left behind") a large majority of songs on Around the Sun dwell not on political causes but on the "Aftermath" (also the name of the second single) of shattered relationships...the turmoil, bitterness, conflict, and -- eventually -- grudging acceptance that accompanies a love run its course. On the cascading "Make it All Ok": "So you worked out your excuses, turned away and shut the door. The world's too vast for us now, and you wanted to explore." On "High-Speed Train" (whose crunchy metallic drone makes the minor-key railroad rock of Driver 8 seem like a pleasure ride): "You've mirrored my best disguise and turned it back on me." On "The Worst Joke Ever": "Some things don't hold up over the course of a lifetime." On "The Ascent of Man": "I'm so in love I won't attract, and with my hands tied I won't crack, 'cause in my mind I called you back." This despondent cloud over the album reaches its apex -- or nadir, actually -- in the album's relentlessly downbeat stand-out track, "Boy in the Well": "It's that sinking feeling, you know what it's bringing on...I see it, I feel it, this town is going wrong." Forget "Fall on Me": On Around the Sun, the sky has already fallen, and it's all about picking up the pieces.

To be sure, all this oppressive dwelling on lost loves can be tough to take, and I can see how some critics might feel like R.E.M. have hit a thematic rut here. Even "Wanderlust," the only relatively peppy track on the disc, doesn't avoid the album's general gloom: "Looks like the world revolves around me. Looks like it's falling down." Simply put, it's hard not to come out of a listen to Around the Sun feeling somewhat dejected. But the payoff is there, in a way, in the last track (strangely enough for R.E.M., also named "Around the Sun"): "Hold on world 'cause you don't know what's coming. Hold on world 'cause I'm not jumping off. Hold onto this boy a little longer, take another trip around the sun." Soon thereafter, in the final moments, "Around the Sun" changes keys, a ray of light pierces the clouds, and the album floats away in a sort-of-Beach-Boys shimmer (done much more successfully than any of the attempts to do this on Reveal): "Let my dreams set me free. Believe. Believe. Now now now now now now..."

As with love, Around the Sun seems to argue by the end, so with America. R.E.M. could easily have hammered the anti-Dubya agenda much harder on this album, and judging from early reports on the Vote for Change tour, it sounds like they'll be doing so extensively at their live shows. But, in a way, Around the Sun sets its goal at something broader. Don't let Dubya's travesty of an administration dishonor your admiration for the American ideal. And don't let the pains, compromises, and betrayals of this world steal from you your heart. "Do I even dare to speak? To dream? Believe?," asks "Around the Sun." The answer is Yes, "Give me a voice so strong I can question what I have seen." Hold on to the dream. Believe.

"In heavily Democratic Rhode Island, he has been a Republican since birth; his parents named him Lincoln after the first Republican president. He says he is waiting for the moderate wing of the party to rise again; in the meantime, he was asked if he went to bed at night wondering how he could remain a Republican. 'Yes,' he said, 'I don't deny that.'" Also in the NYT, GOP moderate Lincoln Chafee contemplates pulling a Jeffords. Although he says he's sticking with his party for now, Chafee has already declared he won't be voting for Dubya this election cycle...and it seems doubtful that this White House will take kindly to such a decision.

The NYT's Linda Greenhouse and Slate's Thomas Baker preview the coming Supreme Court term, which we already know won't involve appeals by Roy Moore, credit card companies, or telemarketers. Update: Dahlia Lithwick talks Blakely.

Well, well, look who's back. Kerry closes the gap over the weekend, setting the stage for this week's debate double (Dubya?) dip (beginning tomorrow with Edwards v. Cheney.) Maybe now Dubya is finally beginning to realize: going mano-a-mano with Kerry is hard work.

No more DeLay? As allegations of corruption swirl closer to the House Majority Leader's roost, Salon reports that the Exterminator's empire may soon be ending.

Well, to give credit where it's due, Dubya has clearly improved as a debater since 2000. While occasionally flustered and often seeming petulant, he never seemed as confused and inarticulate as he did in his jousts with Gore...in fact, I'd go so far to say that he even occasionally seemed wily. Still, given the artifice of the format, it's hard to see how John Kerry could have done much better in tonight's first debate. After the first question or so, Kerry seemed calm, collected, forceful and resolute, and he managed to make succinct and readily understandable distinctions between he and Dubya throughout. For undecided voters who imbibed all the RNC's garbage a month ago and were expecting another Dukakis Dem in John Kerry, I suspect they may have begun reevaluating him tonight. And, when you consider that the terrain of this debate most facilitated Dubya's "9/11, 9/11, 9/11" strategy, Kerry's got nowhere to go but up.

So, what are you doing tonight? If your name is John Kerry, hopefully the answer is kicking ass and taking names.

Seven months after the White House declared it had released all documents surrounding Dubya's desertion, Bush's resignation letter shows up. "White House spokesman Scott McClellan said the resignation was found in connection with a lawsuit brought by The Associated Press." Yeah, I'll bet it was.

Al Gore explains how to debate Dubya. Rule #1: Don't act like Al Gore...

"'Science counts, and it has not counted sufficiently in this administration.'" The NYT reports on the birth of the bipartisan group Scientists and Engineers for Change (covered yesterday at Medley.)

The voter boom continues, with Democratic precincts in swing states reporting record surges in registration. And, in Iowa, Democrat absentee ballots outnumber those of the GOP 3-to-1. Poll that.

"Unlike a lot of political issues, this is literally life or death. Kerry understands how the world works, in a way that Bush doe