Recently in Election 2004 Category

"It was a running joke that some of the new faces were 25- to 32-year-old males asking, 'First name, last name?'" A front-page story in today's NYT discloses that the NYPD spied on possible RNC protesters for over a year before the 2004 convention, including several unlikely candidates -- such as Billionaires for Bush -- for anything other than lawful political protest. "'The police have no authority to spy on lawful political activity, and this wide-ranging N.Y.P.D. program was wrong and illegal,' Mr. Dunn [of the ACLU] said. 'In the coming weeks, the city will be required to disclose to us many more details about its preconvention surveillance of groups and activists, and many will be shocked by the breadth of the Police Department's political surveillance operation.'"

According to a new poll by CBS News (whose sampling, admittedly, might be skewed left), Dubya's numbers have hit a new low, with only 34% of the country approving of his performance and 59% disapproving. Well, on the bright side for this administration, at least they've got Bin Laden's vote, which, as Dubya himself now admits, helped him out in 2004.

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They are two several chairs arranged around the center of the room, along with two couches. Under one couch you find Clinton's shoes.

> FILL SHOES

You are unable to fill Clinton's shoes."

This may be the funniest political Internet post I've seen since the Cheney poker game: By way of WebGoddess and from the brain of Defective Yeti, it's the George W. Bush text adventure. Beware of lurking grues, special prosecutors, and that goshdarned Constitution.

"We...know that Bush 'won' Ohio by 51-48%, but statewide results were not matched by the court-supervised hand count of the 147,400 absentee and provisional ballots in which Kerry received 54.46% of the vote. In Cuyahoga County, Ohio the number of recorded votes was more than 93,000 greater than the number of registered voters. More importantly national exit polls showed Kerry winning in 2004. However, It was only in precincts where there were no paper trails on the voting machines that the exit polls ended up being different from the final count." None dare call it stolen? A new report by Pomona professor Dennis Loo offers considerable evidence that election 2004 witnessed more GOP monkey business than has been previously reported in the mainstream press.

Two intriguing links from today's Cliopatria: First, Inside Higher Ed's Scott Lemee surveys the hubbub surrounding an apparent Holocaust-related hoax perpetrated by Kavalier & Klay author Michael Chabon. And, elsewhere, What's the Matter With Kansas author Thomas Frank tries to figure out what's the matter with liberals, and concludes we play far too easily into the "out-of-touch elitist" stereotype.

"The Committee for the Study of the American Electorate reported yesterday that more than 122 million people voted in the November election, a number that translates into the highest turnout -- 60.7 percent -- since 1968." The Dems didn't do so hot that year, either, but then we had Tet, Chicago, and the murders of both RFK and MLK. How are we going to answer for 2004? Also, "[t]he report noted that although turnout reached new heights, more than 78 million Americans who were eligible to vote stayed home on Election Day. The group estimated that Bush won just 30.8 percent of the total eligible voters."

In a positive sign for more Congressional feistiness this next term, Dems force a two-hour debate over voting irregularities in Ohio. (Unlike in 2001 -- as featured in the opening of Fahrenheit 9/11 -- the House Dems found a Senate backer this time in Barbara Boxer. For his part, Kerry took a pass.) The GOP may chalk it up to simple sour grapes, but Congress desperately needs to talk about these issues: The American voting infrastructure was an international embarrassment in 2000 -- that we had four years to solve the problem and didn't speaks even worse of our self-appointed role as exemplars of democracy. If we can handle millions of ATM transactions every day, complete with paper trail, then surely we can do the same for millions of votes one Tuesday in November.

As we Dems still mull over November's ignominy, Newsweek releases the details of an 11/9 interview with John Kerry in order to flog their upcoming election book. "He never quite came out and said it, but Kerry sounded very much like a man who was running for president again...Some of Kerry's followers are already plotting how Kerry can defeat Hillary Clinton in the Iowa caucuses in 2008." Hmmm...I really think we need a lot more intraparty soul-searching before we pin our 2008 hopes on those two candidates...at this point, that sounds like a recipe for disaster.

The intro sums it up: "With 573 newly discovered ballots roiling the second recount in the race for governor of Washington, the Republican Party went to court Thursday seeking a restraining order that would halt the counting of those votes." Ah, the shadiness knows no bounds.

Even in success, it seems, the Right can't be relied upon to play by the rules. As the House GOP moves to shield Tom DeLay from the Rostenkowski rule they passed eleven years ago (mandating that an indicted leader step down), Senate Republicans look to the "nuclear option" for ending filibusters of judicial nominees, which would allow said filibusters to be ended with a simple 51-vote majority. Finally, in a dubious display of bipartisanship, the Bushies aim to peel off one more Senate vote by offering Democratic Senator Ben Nelson the Agriculture post.

Values, schmalues. Rick Perlstein suggests in the Village Voice that, in the end, Election 2004 came down to GOP avarice.

"Let's put our heads together, and start a new country up..." Well, it's been a week. So now what? Howard Dean says put me in charge (Sure, he can't be worse than McAuliffe), James Carville says let's find a new story (and Keep It Simple, Stupid), and John Kerry, well, he's "fired up" about returning to the Senate (?)...and has started contemplating a 2008 run.

Some choice words on moral values and politics, courtesy of Bob Dylan's Chronicles (my current read):

"Clausewitz's book seemed outdated, but there's a lot in it that's real, and you can understand a lot about conventional life and the pressures of environment by reading it. When he claims that politics has taken the place of morality and politics is brute force, he's not playing. You have to believe it. You do exactly as you're told, whoever you are. Knuckle under or you're dead. Don't give me any of that jazz about hope or nonsense about righteousness. Don't give me that dance that God is with us, or that God supports us. Let's get down to brass tacks. There isn't any moral order. You can forget that. Morality has nothing in common with politics. It's not there to transgress. It's either high ground or low ground. This is the way the world is and nothing's gonna change it. It's a crazy, mixed up world and you have to look it right in the eye. Clausewitz in some ways is a prophet. Without realizing it, some of the stuff in his book can shape your ideas. If you think you're a dreamer, you can read this stuff and realize you're not even capable of dreaming. Dreaming is dangerous. Reading Clausewitz makes you take your own thoughts a little less seriously." (Chronicles, p. 45)

From Boing Boing and the AP: "A computer error with a voting machine cartridge gave President Bush 3,893 extra votes in a Gahanna [Ohio] precinct. Franklin County's unofficial results gave Bush 4,258 votes to Democratic challenger John Kerry's 260 votes in Precinct 1B. Records show only 638 voters cast ballots in that precinct." Hmmm...I for one don't think it's feasible that the entirety of Dubya's winning popular vote margin is manufactured. (Right now, I'm more inclined to side with Jane Smiley and the Brits.) But factor in Greg Palast's discussion of Ohio chads to the equation and, I'll admit, one starts to wonder.

Some pop culture quotes that, applicable or not, have been flitting about my head the past few days:

"And that, I think, was the handle---that sense of inevitable victory over the forces of Old and Evil. Not in any mean or military sense; we didn't need that. Our energy would simply prevail. There was no point in fighting---on our side or theirs. We had all the momentum; we were riding the crest of a high and beautiful wave. So now, less than five years later, you can go up on a steep hill in Las Vegas and look West, and with the right kind of eyes you can almost see the high-water mark---the place where the wave finally broke and rolled back."
- Hunter S. Thompson, Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas

"Where is the horse and the rider?

Where is the horn that was blowing?

They've passed like rain on the mountain, like wind in the meadow.

The days have gone down in the West, behind the hills, into shadow."

- Theoden, The Two Towers

"Ladies and gentlemen, er, we've just lost the picture, but, uh, what we've seen speaks for itself. The Corvair spacecraft has been taken over -- 'conquered', if you will -- by a master race of giant space ants. It's difficult to tell from this vantage point whether they will consume the captive earth men or merely enslave them. One thing is for certain, there is no stopping them; the ants will soon be here. And I, for one, welcome our new insect overlords. I'd like to remind them that as a trusted TV personality, I can be helpful in rounding up others to toil in their underground sugar caves."
- Kent Brockman, "Deep Space Homer" (This last one birddogged, after much mutual quoting, by Mark at Nofeblog.)

"I earned capital in the campaign, political capital, and now I intend to spend it." (For some reason, I'm reminded of Homer Simpsons's cabin fever..."I have powers...political powers!") To his credit, Dubya gives us fair warning in his press conference today about what to expect from the coming second term. Some choice Dubya quotes, via Value Judgment: "Now that I've got the will of the people at my back, I'm going to start enforcing the one-question rule. That was three questions." or "Again, he violated the one-question rule right off the bat. Obviously you didn't listen to the will of the people." Also, by way of Looka: "I will reach out to every one who shares our goals." The rest of us, it seems, might be in for some trouble.

So, according to a CNN poll today, 51% of the country are optimistic about the election results (surprise, surprise), and 57% of the country "expect Bush to unite the nation during his second term." You think? Well, as Albert Einstein aptly noted, "insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result."

One bright spot concerning the next four years: Apparently, John Ashcroft isn't sticking around for a second Dubya term. His possible replacements include deputy Larry Thompson, Dubya stooge Marc Racicot, or White House counsel Alberto Gonzalez (the torture memo guy...he'll fit right in.)

Hope is on the...wait, what's this? Oops, sorry about that. Turns out Hope took a wrong turn and got lost somewhere back there in Idiotville. Welcome to Despairtown, baby.

So, that's that, then...the Idiot Wind blows anew. The American electorate has spoken and -- despite all the shadiness and incompetence of the past four years -- has given Dubya and his cronies the imprimatur to go hog-wild. 51-48%...this is pretty much a mandate, folks. (Big of those Red Staters to ensure that we will be woefully unprepared for the next terrorist attack on a Blue State.) Y'know, H.L. Mencken's whole Tyranny of the Booboisie schtick has always grated on my lefty sensibilities, but at this point I have to admit he may have been on to something.

Ugh. I'm too young to remember 1984 very well, but I'm curious as to how last night and this morning compared for America's Left. (I've since been reminded by several people I trust that 1968 and 1972 were much more grievous blows.) Thing is, 2004 started out with such promise over here. But, right around the time I ended up on crutches in May, events personal and political took a nasty turn, and the past few months have been some of the most dismal I can remember. Now, it seems, I may just look back on this time as relatively calm and worry-free.

But, ok, enough wallowing...let's start taking it frame-by-frame. Given the war, the economy, and Dubya's obvious incompetence, how on Earth did we lose this election? Well, give credit where credit is due...all this exit-talk of "moral values" proves that Karl Rove pulled off his gambit: He got the extra 4 million evangelical votes he was targeting, partly, it seems, by judiciously invoking rampant anti-gay hysteria. Yet, for some reason or another -- a lousy ground game, perhaps? -- the Dems inexplicably didn't counter with extra votes of our own.

Where do we go from here? The Dems are facing an ugly Rule of Four...We lost four seats in the Senate, at least four seats in the House, and likely four seats in the Supreme Court. Whatsmore, we now appear officially dead in the water in the South and Midwest. And, with Kerry and Daschle gone, our standard-bearers now appear to be Hillary Clinton (about whom the country has already made up its mind), John Edwards (whom I still admire, but he couldn't carry his home state), and Barrack Obama (who's probably too inexperienced to make much headway in 2008.)

Obviously, it's now well past time for the serious party overhaul we should've began last cycle, when Al Gore had an election stolen from him that he should have won hands down. Daschle & Gephardt are already in the dustbin of history, and Terry McAuliffe should probably follow them there. I for one don't think Howard Dean was or is the answer, but he's one of the only people injecting new blood and enthusiasm into the party right now, so he should have a seat at the table. Right now, I think Edwardsian populism is our strongest ideological card, but as I said, it didn't seem to make much headway last night.

Silver lining? Yeah, right. Well, as this Washington Monthly forum noted in September, second terms are notoriously scandal-prone (Watergate, Iran-Contra, Monica), partly out of press boredom, and Dubya's ilk seem particularly scandal-worthy...perhaps we'll finally hear a little more about Halliburton. I'm sure there'll be no shortage of horrifying policy decisions emanating from this administration that'll keep lefty blogs like this one in business. And, on a purely selfish note, my likely dissertation topic on the fortunes of progressivism in the twenties is now seeming much more sexy in the wake of last night's 1928-like cultural divide. Of course, none of these are really any consolation at all.

At any rate, I generally believe that America tends to get the president it deserves. So, God help us, we've brought this upon ourselves. And now, for we 48%, the hard work begins...we have to lick our wounds, get our act together, and figure out how we can best combat the rightward drift that's afflicting our nation. Alas, I fear Dubya will do much of the heavy lifting for us, by running the nation further into the ground over the next four years. Still, we gotta keep on keeping on, y'all. I do not believe this darkness will endure.

Well, fuck. Here we go again. At 3:10am, Ohio is still up in the air, and may well be for days, as we wait for the provisional ballots to be counted. Right now, Dubya's up by 140,000 votes with 99% reporting, which means Kerry has to run the table with those 175,000 provisionals to go over the top. Doable, sure, but we're definitely running really low on ammo at this point.

I'll save the real post-mortem for when the winner's declared (and I'm less tired), but obviously both my earlier confidence and most of today's exit polls were, um, somewhat off. So, more tomorrow. For now, I'm off to bed, where I'm going to try not to dwell on the future of the Supreme Court.

Update: 3:49am...Oof, there went Daschle. I think it's safe to say at this point that our party is in disarray. Still, given that 51% of the electorate signed off on four more years of Dubya tonight, despite the arrogance and incompetence displayed by this White House since January 2001...well, perhaps we Dems are destined to remain a minority party for some time to come.

[Scroll down this post for exit poll updates.] The 2pm exit polls should be out now...I'll post 'em as soon as I find 'em (or when Jack Shafer of Slate divulges them.) Right now, Drudge is leading with the following: "KERRY CAMPAIGN FINDS COMFORT IN FIRST BATCH OF EXIT POLLS. Election 2004 has been rocked with first wave of exit polls which show Kerry competitive in key states, campaign and media sources tell DRUDGE. National Election Pool -- representing six major news organizations -- shows Kerry in striking distance -- with small lead -- in Florida and Ohio." Sounds like music to my ears, but what's this talk of striking distance? Drudge makes it sound as if Kerry was expected to lose. Update: Ok, here they are, courtesy of dKos. Apparently, they ratio was skewed 59-41 women to men, for what it's worth:

So, as of right now, Kerry's up in all three prongs of the trifecta (Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida), and doing well in Michigan, New Mexico, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and New Hampshire. Iowa's tied, and Dubya's got Arizona and Louisiana locked up with Colorado in play. Hey, it's early yet, but so far, so good. Let's get those 4pm numbers!

Update 2: More from Drudge on the Senate Races: "Senate races: Thune +4 Castor +3 Burr +6 Bunning +6 Coburn +6 Demint +4 Salazar +4..." Thune (SD, v. Daschle), Burr (NC, v. Bowles), Bunning (KY, v. Mongiardo), Coburn (OK, v. Carson ), and Demint (SC, v. Tenenbaum) are GOP. Castor (FL, v. Martinez) and Salazar (CO, v. Coors) are Dems.

Update 3: Slate's Shafer has somewhat different morning numbers. His (that differ) are below. New states in bold:

So, I don't know what's going on over there in Edwards Country, but otherwise, these are better numbers for Bush...he's pulling away in Colorado and closing the gap in the Trifecta and Wisconsin. Phew...and more numbers in 15-30 minutes...if I can find them!

Update 4: Some good news on Florida, via MyDD: Hispanics in Florida are voting 53-46 for Bush (The Cuban breakdown is 68-32). This is significantly better for Kerry than the 2000 numbers: 65-35 and 83-17 for Dubya respectively.

Update 5: A friend of mine in the program alerted me to Wonkette's numbers, which are also slightly different...I don't know if these are the 4pm numbers or not, so I'll just go ahead and post them, new states in bold. Update 6: These are confirmed as the 4pm numbers:

Update 7: Late numbers via Wonkette:

Update 8: Ok, one last batch from dKos, and then I'm off to the local grad student watering hole to watch the real numbers come in. All in all, it's looking pretty good for Kerry -- he's still leading in the Trifecta, the Michigan-Wisconsin axis, and New Mexico. But let's keep our fingers crossed that there isn't a Diebold surprise in the works. Here they are -- I'll see y'all on the flip-side:

Ok, I can now guarantee at least one vote for the Kerry-Edwards ticket in New York. (Of course, the guy in front of me picked Nader, so it's neck-and-neck in the Empire State in the early going...)

Well, the Redskins did their part...now it's up to us. My predictions (re: wishful thinking) for tomorrow (and keep in mind I had Gore winning the electoral vote and Dubya winning the popular vote last time around):

• Thanks to an almost 60% turnout, Kerry wins bigger than expected, carrying between 300 and 315 electoral votes and 51% of the popular vote to Dubya's 48%. [He's pulling 298 in the final polls and seems to have the Mo, so this isn't completely out of left field...particularly once you factor in the mobile vote.]



• The night also ends earlier than expected, with Kerry winning the treasured trifecta of Pennsylvania, Florida, and Ohio. Or, if Dubya's Diebold minions manage to steal Ohio, Kerry offsets with Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Iowa. [I really hope we don't have to wait for the Hawaii vote to come in, although I guess I'd prefer that to another recount fiasco.]



• In the Senate, I think the GOP will almost assuredly keep control, or at most slip into a 50-50 Edwards-breaking tie. Daschle will eke by in his close race thanks to the high turnout. Alas, Democrat contenders Mongiardo in KY, Tenenbaum in SC, and Carson in OK will all fall after spirited contests. That being said, I'll say that Erskine Bowles of NC will be a new Democratic face in the Senate, that Pete Coors goes down in Colorado, and that tomorrow night will obviously be Obamatastic.



• In the House, unfortunately, the GOP will begin its second decade in power, thanks in part (as the Post noted) to DeLay's gerrymandered Texas. Ah, well, baby steps...we'll get the Hammer and his cronies out in 2006.

Well, if nothing else, it should be a lively evening, and I for one am eagerly anticipating Dubya's Rove-penned concession speech. So, until tomorrow, vote early, vote often, and vote Kerry-Edwards!

until the American people crawl out of the television set and kick this godawful administration to the curb. I know Dubya is up ever so slightly in the polls, but ties generally go to the challenger, and, at this point I still feel pretty confident that Kerry is going to win next Tuesday. (Then again, I've felt that way since the primaries ended, which probably has more to do with my inability to conceive of this nation actually choosing Dubya than anything else.) And, with Big Bill back in the game to help close the deal in swing states (something Gore should have considered more seriously in 2000), I think we're good to go. Hope is on the way, y'all.

Remember how much was made of Kerry saying Iraq had cost $200 billion in the debate? Well, "the Bush administration intends to seek about $70 billion in emergency funding for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan early next year, pushing total war costs close to $225 billion since the invasion of Iraq." $225 billion...for that kind of cheddar, you'd think the Bushies could at least have locked down those 380 tons of lethal ordnance, eh?

Just in case anybody needed it spelled out, Rehnquist's recent health problems make it explicit: next week's vote will in fact determine the Supreme Court. It'd be hard to find a judge more Right-Wing than the Chief here, but I'm sure a second Dubya administration would do its damnedest to find one nevertheless.

"'There's not a chance in the world, I don't think, of the House turning over,' political analyst Charles E. Cook Jr. said last week." The Post examines Democratic prospects in the House and finds that "the combination of Republican firepower, Democratic miscues and a controversial Republican redistricting plan in Texas virtually assures the continuation of GOP rule."

By way of Looka and The Nation, 100 Facts and 1 Opinion: The Non-Arguable Case Against the Bush Administration. If you know any undecideds out there, this might be a good one to share.

Biden, Holbrooke, Biden, Holbrooke...Richardson? The Washington Post starts handicapping Kerry's possible Cabinet choices. "Kerry has told friends he wants to tap a Republican for one of the top national security posts, preferably defense or state. Those under consideration include Sens. Chuck Hagel (Neb.) and Richard G. Lugar (Ind.), as well as former senator Warren Rudman." Somehow I think the GOP won't return the favor should Dubya win.

A new study by the Program on International Policy Attitudes at the University of Maryland finally figures out the crux of Dubya's support: the misinformed. "75% of Bush supporters continue to believe that Iraq was providing substantial support to al Qaeda, and 63% believe that clear evidence of this support has been found. Sixty percent of Bush supporters assume that this is also the conclusion of most experts, and 55% assume, incorrectly, that this was the conclusion of the 9/11 Commission." And that's just the beginning, folks.

In a Nickelodeon online poll, nearly 400,000 American children pick Kerry over Dubya 57%-43%. "Nickelodeon has held a "Kids' Vote" every election year since 1988, and kids have correctly predicted the winner of the general elections for the last four U.S. presidential campaigns."

The Sinclair Broadcast Group fires their Washington bureau chief, Jon Leiberman, after he makes his displeasure about their right-wing proselytizing known to the Baltimore Sun. Whatsmore, the wingnut network is playing hardball: "Sinclair would not waive his noncompete agreement, which means he cannot work for a broadcast outlet in any market that has a Sinclair station." Hmmm...well, two (and more) can play at that game. Update: Sinclair buckles.

In "something of a surprise," the Supreme Court authorizes a three-judge district court to review its earlier decision upholding Tom DeLay's partisan gerrymandering of Texas. It's too late for 2004, but perhaps this will bear fruit before 2006, as the Hammer's other shady dealings come to light.

"We look back on the past four years with hearts nearly breaking, both for the lives unnecessarily lost and for the opportunities so casually wasted. Time and again, history invited George W. Bush to play a heroic role, and time and again he chose the wrong course. We believe that with John Kerry as president, the nation will do better." The New York Times endorses John Kerry for President. Not much of a surprise, sure, but still worth reading.

"[Bruce] Bartlett, a 53-year-old columnist and self-described libertarian Republican who has lately been a champion for traditional Republicans concerned about Bush's governance, went on to say: 'This is why George W. Bush is so clear-eyed about Al Qaeda and the Islamic fundamentalist enemy. He believes you have to kill them all. They can't be persuaded, that they're extremists, driven by a dark vision. He understands them, because he's just like them...This is why he dispenses with people who confront him with inconvenient facts...He truly believes he's on a mission from God. Absolute faith like that overwhelms a need for analysis.'" Ron Suskind, co-author of The Price of Loyalty, delves into the sadly myopic halls of Dubya's faith-based presidency (and attempts to explain why our current Prez can't distinguish between Sweden and Switzerland...no one in the White House ever openly challenges his ignorance.)

Brent Scowcroft, former National Security Advisor and consigliere to Bush I, decries Dubya's diplomacy in the Financial Times, calling Iraq a "failed venture" and questioning this administration's penchant for unilateralism.

"CARLSON: You need to get a job at a journalism school, I think. STEWART: You need to go to one." Sent to me by a friend in the program here, Jon Stewart and Tucker Carlson battle it out on Crossfire. (More here.) I wish I'd seen this live...the transcript is definitely worth a read. "CARLSON: You had John Kerry on your show and you sniff his throne and you're accusing us of partisan hackery? STEWART: Absolutely...You're on CNN. The show that leads into me is puppets making crank phone calls." Update: See it here, via High Industrial.

Well, Dubya's still up slightly in the polls right now, but Republican pollster Frank Luntz has nevertheless sounded the warning bells for the GOP. "Step by step, debate-by-debate, John Kerry has addressed and removed many remaining doubts among uncommitted voters. My own polling research after each debate suggests a rather bleak outlook for the Bush candidacy: many who still claim to be 'undecided' are in fact leaning to Mr. Kerry and are about ready to commit."

"Less than a day after President Bush implied that Senator John Kerry lacked 'fiscal sanity,' the Bush administration said on Thursday that the federal government had hit the debt ceiling set by Congress [for the fourth time in three years] and would have to borrow from the civil service retirement system until after the elections." As this article goes on to note, the Congressional GOP kicked the vote on this matter until after Election Day, so Dubya wouldn't get any bad press. Under this president, the national debt has increased 40%, to $7.4 trillion.

"This is one of those Bush/Cheney invitation-only lovefests where the president could walk out in his boxer shorts and speak in pig Latin and the crowd would still chant 'four more years.'" With the debates over, it's shore-up-the-base time for Dubya (Hence, the return of the dreaded "L-Word".) And, along those lines, evangelical leaders are working hard to get believers out for Bush. Update: Liberal Christians push back.

"The senator now says we'd have to pass some international truth standard." Um, well, yes, we do. As Will Saletan points out, in the final three weeks of the campaign, Dubya is now explicitly running against reality. The reality is, it's time for this faith-based administration to go.

Well, to no one's surprise, I think John Kerry won again. But, while I'd like to say that the Senator knocked this final debate in Tempe, Arizona out of the park, frankly, he didn't. In the early going, I thought he seemed tired and slightly discombobulated, and, at times when a concise rebuttal could have scored some serious points, Kerry's answers often seemed more wordy and circuitous than necessary. On the other hand, I thought this was Dubya's best performance - he was still smirking and guffawing too much, still distorting the facts, still running from his record, and still demonizing his opponent like the best of 'em, but at least he seemed in full possession of his faculties this time around (perhaps the wire was working tonight.) I did think that Kerry warmed up in the middle third, but he lost focus again during the final questions (Native American blessings? Idears?) That being said, given the relative lack of drama tonight and the playoff baseball on FOX, I highly doubt this final debate will end up altering the current campaign dynamic much.

So there you have it, folks. Barring an October Surprise in the next three weeks, it now all comes down to the ground game, and -- given what we've been hearing regarding voter registration, given the white-hot contempt towards Dubya held by Dems and the ambivalence with which fiscal conservatives and many veterans view this administration, and given the usual tendency of undecideds to break towards the challenger -- turnout is a factor which John Kerry should win handily (barring Diebold shenanigans.) It ain't over yet, to be sure, but right now I'd say that, despite tonight's missed opportunities, John Kerry and John Edwards have put themselves in a solid position to win with their cumulative debate performance. The election is too close to call, definitely, but at this point I feel pretty confident our nation will make the right decision on Nov 2.

"Senator Charles E. Grassley needed every possible vote to pass his mammoth corporate tax bill. So he was more than willing to accept Zell Miller's plea on behalf of imported ceiling fans...[This] provision is just one tiny example of how the need to solve a narrow tax problem in 2002 gave birth to the biggest free-for-all in corporate lobbying that Congress has experienced in nearly 20 years." The NYT conducts a post-mortem of the pork-bloated corporate tax legislation passed by Congress on Monday.

So apparently the Sinclair Broadcast Group, a right-wing-flunky television conglomerate who previously refused to air a Nightline on fallen soldiers in Iraq, will show an anti-Kerry hatchet-job on its swing state affiliates in the next two weeks. Well, I must say, that's quite an end-run around the equal time rule, if not a blatant misuse of the public airwaves. Perhaps the FCC can extricate themselves from their shock over Janet Jackson's breast long enough to look into this.

Looking to recess in time for some electioneering, the House and Senate both pass a pork-swollen corporate tax measure by comfortable margins. "[C]ritics -- including budget watchdogs, liberal activists and Treasury Secretary John W. Snow -- decried what they saw as a cornucopia of special-interest tax cuts that would complicate the tax code, favor companies doing business overseas and ultimately worsen the budget deficit. Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) pronounced it 'disgraceful' and 'a classic example of the special interests prevailing over the people's interest.'"

"On a bright sunny day at the end of the Third Age of Middle Earth, a new unelected king was crowned. His name? Aragorn, son of Arathorn. How did it all happen? Was it all just a dream? I mean, it looked real enough. The guys with the pointed ears were there, the short guys with beards were there, even those weird little hobbit guys were there. Who were these people, this elitist group of carnival freaks who wanted to control the fate of Middle Earth?" I can't say I much agree with its politics, and the same basic joke was made in this McSweeney's piece last year. Still, the Michael Moore parody Fellowship 9/11 is for the most part pretty clever, and worth watching...if nothing else than to see a mean Brad Dourif impression and to hear Gandalf the Grey croon "Let the Eagle Soar."

An hour after tonight's town hall debate in St. Louis, the immediate spin seems to be that it was a draw, mainly because Dubya didn't scowl and sputter to the extent he did last time around. (The "soft bigotry of low expectations" strikes again.) But it must be a Two Americas thing, 'cause that's not the debate I saw...most of the time I was waiting for Rove and Cheney to run on stage, hold a light to Dubya's eyes, and squirt some water in his mouth. As before, John Kerry radiated calm, determination, and a quick, roving intelligence. In a word, leadership. Dubya, on the other hand, was once again all hat and no cattle, trying to shirk, smirk, weasel, bluster, and lie his way through the proceedings. "Flip-flopper," "global test," tax-and-spend, etc...Dubya sought to evade every single question about his dismal record with a insult or a threat, even going so far as to throw around "Liberal" desperately, a word still verboten since his Daddy ran it through the mud in '88.

Kerry's been surging since last Thursday, and I expect it'll continue after tonight. But I confess, I really can't wrap my mind around how anyone could have watched tonight's event and think Bush would be the better choice between these two men. With the possible exception of the canned Red Sox quip, there wasn't a moment when Kerry didn't seem presidential and didn't hold the upper hand. And, as for Dubya...based on tonight, I wouldn't trust this guy to run the local chapter of the Elks, much less the Oval Office. No mistakes made at all, Mr. President? Who wants a President so blatantly unreflective about life-and-death decisions? I mean, he could have at least tried to look one up on the Internets. Would forgetting about your timber company count as a mistake?

That being said, I think we can all breathe a sigh of relief that, when considering the inevitable Supreme Court appointments over the next four years, Dubya has at least promised not to overturn Dred Scott v. Sandford. Phew! Say what you will about Dubya's godawful judicial nominees, at least we know they'll hold up the Thirteenth Amendment. (Civil rights and civil liberties, of course, are another matter...) Update: Ok, now I get it. It was a coded pro-life message to the right-wing fundies. (Via Blivet.) Update 2: Tim Noah talks more about Dred.

What do the Bushies do with their backs to the wall? Why, lie, of course. "From the beginning of the year, the White House has charted new ground with the sweep of its negative campaigning...[but now] several analysts say, Mr. Bush pushed the limits of subjective interpretation and offered exaggerated or what some Democrats said were distorted accounts of Mr. Kerry's positions on health care, tax cuts, the Iraq war and foreign policy."

Don't say Britney didn't try to warn you, Mr. President. Republicans and campaign aides fret over the consequences of Dubya's isolation thus far.

"This administration is amazingly inept and incompetent. John Ashcroft in charge of justice? The man thinks dancing is a sin." Following in the footsteps of the Boss and similar remarks in Rolling Stone, Mike Mills of R.E.M. again makes the case against Dubya in the Orlando Sentinel.

Tim Noah of Slate continues to connect the dots of Tom DeLay's attempted bribery of fellow congressman Nick Smith.

Sent to me by way of Raza at High Industrial: Is Bush Wired? Hmmm...I see two major problems with this particular conspiracy theory. For one, given how much Dubya is photographed, an earpiece would be extremely hard to hide. For another, if Dubya were being prompted from afar, one would think he'd be much more articulate than he in fact is most of the time. Update: Salon follows the meme.

"The global test is the measurement of the president's assertions against the real world, the world you and I can see. This is the test Bush has failed." Will Saletan dispels the "global test" canard that the GOP has been latching on to since last Thursday.

Yesterday, Paul Bremer -- Dubya's former chief man in Iraq -- admitted in remarks intended for a private audience that many more troops were needed on the ground after Saddam's fall to stave off looting and lawlessness. Today, a report by Charles Duelfer -- the chief weapons inspector in Iraq (after the departed David Kay, who's already quit the WMD party line) -- concludes "that Saddam Hussein posed a diminishing threat at the time the United States invaded and did not possess, or have concrete plans to develop, nuclear, chemical or biological weapons." How many more "failures of judgment" in Iraq, to put it charitably, do we need to see from these jokers?

Well, to my partisan eye, Dick Cheney proved time and time again in tonight's sole veep debate that he's not only an inveterate liar but a major-league asshole. (Yeah, big time.) Iraq ("It's going great!"), Osama ("We never stopped going after him!"), the homefront ("Things are looking up!"), you name it...the guy just seems to have no compunction about dissembling flat-out to the American people. Said the veep early on, "The senator has got his facts wrong. I have not suggested there's a connection between Iraq and 9/11." Really, Dick? How were we supposed to take Saddam "had long-established ties with Al Qaeda" then? Similarly, the audacity of Dick Cheney attacking John Kerry for voting against weapons systems he himself opposed is simply staggering.

From lies to misdirection. How did Cheney try to explain away Halliburton's sweetheart no-bid Iraq contracts, and the subsequent looking askance at their egregious overbilling of the American people? "Um, John, I've never seen you around the Senate before." (Not true, of course, but nice of Dick to send voters to the Soros-run FactCheck.com rather than FactCheck.org, though.) And, when Edwards skewered the veep with his own voting record from back in the day -- no to Head Start, Meals on Wheels, and the Education Dept, no to MLK Day and to condemning apartheid(?!) -- what was Cheney's answer? "Oh, I think his record speaks for itself." You're damn right it does, as does yours.

All that being said, I thought Edwards missed a few chances to put the hurt on Cheney in the early going, and should have responded harder to the ridiculous "facing-up-to-Howard Dean" riff. And he didn't really hit his stride until the domestic-policy-oriented second half, when less-interested swing voters out there had probably started tuning out. (Conversely, I thought Cheney self-destructed for awhile there, mumbling about No Child Left Behind in a question about jobs.) So, while my gut (and the insta-polling) say Edwards took this one, I'm guessing the numbers in the next few days will show a draw, if only because Cheney seemed at least somewhat cognizant of the world around him, unlike his running mate. Next stop: Friday.

"The 50-50 split is not between Democrats and Republicans, but those who vote and those who don't. That's right: nearly 50% of eligible voters chose not to vote in 2000. The underlying challenge of our democracy is to change this non-participation and to ensure that the core values of citizenship and active participation in the electoral process overshadow the domination of big money and corporate power." Sent to me by Chris at Do You Feel Loved, the inimitable Bill Bradley emerges from hiding to admire the Vote for Change tour in USA Today.

True to form, "House Republicans are working to eliminate or dilute provisions in a new corporate tax bill aimed at cracking down on illegal shelters." This despite the fact that a "study last week by Citizens for Tax Justice, a liberal research organization, reported that 82 of the nation's most profitable companies paid no corporate taxes in at least one of the last three years." Say what they will about Dubyanomics, it is patently obvious once again that the Republican Party does not represent the best interests of you, I, or the vast majority of this nation. Vote 'em out, already.

"So am I with you or am I against? I don't think it's that easy, we're lost in regret." This line (from "The Outsiders," featuring A Tribe Called Quest's Q-Tip) emerges as the central theme in Around the Sun -- R.E.M.'s 13th album -- which was released today. And, while it may take a few more listens than usual to differentiate among the many glum mid-tempo tracks on this album, I'd say Around the Sun is easily R.E.M.'s most cohesive album since Monster. Peter Buck, Mike Mills, and new drummer Bill Rieflin have finally emerged with a confident sound that incorporates the musical experimentation of Up and Reveal with the classic jingly-jangly R.E.M. we all remember from the Bill Berry era. In fact, I think Around the Sun compares favorably to the Automatic days, when the Athens boys enjoyed their widest popularity stateside with a similarly disconsolate set of songs.

Early word on Around the Sun was that we were in for a very political album, one swept up in and honed on progressive outrage over Dubya excess. And, while such sentiments appear explicitly on "Final Straw" (released in 2002 during the build-up to the war in Iraq) and "I Wanted to Be Wrong" ("We can't approach the Allies because they seem a little peeved."), Michael Stipe's political sermonizing is never as overt as, on say, "Exhuming McCarthy," "Cuyahoga," or "Welcome to the Occupation" in the Life's Rich Pageant/Document era.

Instead, for R.E.M. this time around, the political is personal. In fact, the band doesn't seem angry so much as disheartened. From the opening track (and first single) "Leaving New York" ("It's easier to leave than to be left behind") a large majority of songs on Around the Sun dwell not on political causes but on the "Aftermath" (also the name of the second single) of shattered relationships...the turmoil, bitterness, conflict, and -- eventually -- grudging acceptance that accompanies a love run its course. On the cascading "Make it All Ok": "So you worked out your excuses, turned away and shut the door. The world's too vast for us now, and you wanted to explore." On "High-Speed Train" (whose crunchy metallic drone makes the minor-key railroad rock of Driver 8 seem like a pleasure ride): "You've mirrored my best disguise and turned it back on me." On "The Worst Joke Ever": "Some things don't hold up over the course of a lifetime." On "The Ascent of Man": "I'm so in love I won't attract, and with my hands tied I won't crack, 'cause in my mind I called you back." This despondent cloud over the album reaches its apex -- or nadir, actually -- in the album's relentlessly downbeat stand-out track, "Boy in the Well": "It's that sinking feeling, you know what it's bringing on...I see it, I feel it, this town is going wrong." Forget "Fall on Me": On Around the Sun, the sky has already fallen, and it's all about picking up the pieces.

To be sure, all this oppressive dwelling on lost loves can be tough to take, and I can see how some critics might feel like R.E.M. have hit a thematic rut here. Even "Wanderlust," the only relatively peppy track on the disc, doesn't avoid the album's general gloom: "Looks like the world revolves around me. Looks like it's falling down." Simply put, it's hard not to come out of a listen to Around the Sun feeling somewhat dejected. But the payoff is there, in a way, in the last track (strangely enough for R.E.M., also named "Around the Sun"): "Hold on world 'cause you don't know what's coming. Hold on world 'cause I'm not jumping off. Hold onto this boy a little longer, take another trip around the sun." Soon thereafter, in the final moments, "Around the Sun" changes keys, a ray of light pierces the clouds, and the album floats away in a sort-of-Beach-Boys shimmer (done much more successfully than any of the attempts to do this on Reveal): "Let my dreams set me free. Believe. Believe. Now now now now now now..."

As with love, Around the Sun seems to argue by the end, so with America. R.E.M. could easily have hammered the anti-Dubya agenda much harder on this album, and judging from early reports on the Vote for Change tour, it sounds like they'll be doing so extensively at their live shows. But, in a way, Around the Sun sets its goal at something broader. Don't let Dubya's travesty of an administration dishonor your admiration for the American ideal. And don't let the pains, compromises, and betrayals of this world steal from you your heart. "Do I even dare to speak? To dream? Believe?," asks "Around the Sun." The answer is Yes, "Give me a voice so strong I can question what I have seen." Hold on to the dream. Believe.

"In heavily Democratic Rhode Island, he has been a Republican since birth; his parents named him Lincoln after the first Republican president. He says he is waiting for the moderate wing of the party to rise again; in the meantime, he was asked if he went to bed at night wondering how he could remain a Republican. 'Yes,' he said, 'I don't deny that.'" Also in the NYT, GOP moderate Lincoln Chafee contemplates pulling a Jeffords. Although he says he's sticking with his party for now, Chafee has already declared he won't be voting for Dubya this election cycle...and it seems doubtful that this White House will take kindly to such a decision.

The NYT's Linda Greenhouse and Slate's Thomas Baker preview the coming Supreme Court term, which we already know won't involve appeals by Roy Moore, credit card companies, or telemarketers. Update: Dahlia Lithwick talks Blakely.

Well, well, look who's back. Kerry closes the gap over the weekend, setting the stage for this week's debate double (Dubya?) dip (beginning tomorrow with Edwards v. Cheney.) Maybe now Dubya is finally beginning to realize: going mano-a-mano with Kerry is hard work.

No more DeLay? As allegations of corruption swirl closer to the House Majority Leader's roost, Salon reports that the Exterminator's empire may soon be ending.

Well, to give credit where it's due, Dubya has clearly improved as a debater since 2000. While occasionally flustered and often seeming petulant, he never seemed as confused and inarticulate as he did in his jousts with Gore...in fact, I'd go so far to say that he even occasionally seemed wily. Still, given the artifice of the format, it's hard to see how John Kerry could have done much better in tonight's first debate. After the first question or so, Kerry seemed calm, collected, forceful and resolute, and he managed to make succinct and readily understandable distinctions between he and Dubya throughout. For undecided voters who imbibed all the RNC's garbage a month ago and were expecting another Dukakis Dem in John Kerry, I suspect they may have begun reevaluating him tonight. And, when you consider that the terrain of this debate most facilitated Dubya's "9/11, 9/11, 9/11" strategy, Kerry's got nowhere to go but up.

So, what are you doing tonight? If your name is John Kerry, hopefully the answer is kicking ass and taking names.

Seven months after the White House declared it had released all documents surrounding Dubya's desertion, Bush's resignation letter shows up. "White House spokesman Scott McClellan said the resignation was found in connection with a lawsuit brought by The Associated Press." Yeah, I'll bet it was.

Al Gore explains how to debate Dubya. Rule #1: Don't act like Al Gore...

"'Science counts, and it has not counted sufficiently in this administration.'" The NYT reports on the birth of the bipartisan group Scientists and Engineers for Change (covered yesterday at Medley.)

The voter boom continues, with Democratic precincts in swing states reporting record surges in registration. And, in Iowa, Democrat absentee ballots outnumber those of the GOP 3-to-1. Poll that.

"Unlike a lot of political issues, this is literally life or death. Kerry understands how the world works, in a way that Bush does not. When Bush ran the first time, I realized something: I want my president to be smarter than I am. I don't ask much, but I want him to be smarter than me." Mike Mills of R.E.M. and several other musicians make the case for Kerry to Rolling Stone.

"'A good war is based on honor, not deception," says K'tok (Earth name: Clyde Lewis), a 40-year-old Klingon from Lair Hill.'" Finally, some good news on the political front...Kerry is winning handily among Portland-area Klingons. Hopefully, they can offset Dubya's considerable pull with the Ferengi in and around Salem.(By way of Usr/Bin/Girl.)

"The disturbing fact is that a repetition of the problems of 2000 now seems likely, even as many other nations are conducting elections that are internationally certified to be transparent, honest and fair." Former President Jimmy Carter calls out Florida officials for negligence in implementing voter reform and for transparent bias. "A fumbling attempt has been made recently to disqualify 22,000 African Americans (likely Democrats), but only 61 Hispanics (likely Republicans), as alleged felons."

"In recent weeks, federal agencies across the vast Washington bureaucracy have delayed completion of a range of proposed regulations from food safety and the environment to corporate governance and telecommunications policy until after Election Day, when regulatory action may be more politically palatable." Apparently, the Bushies have prepared an onslaught of awful legislation that they're hiding from us until November 3. While this tends to happen every to some extent every election year, notes Consumers Union director Gene Kimmelman, "'[w]hat is unusual this time...is the clear pattern of holding back regulatory decisions that will benefit the largest industry players and will drive up prices and market place risks for consumers, ranging from telephones to drugs to the risks of contaminants of food. The pattern of slow rolling will ultimately benefit the largest players and hit consumers in the pocketbook.'" Oh, swell.

"A sweeping voter registration campaign in heavily Democratic areas has added tens of thousands of new voters to the rolls in the swing states of Ohio and Florida, a surge that has far exceeded the efforts of Republicans in both states, a review of registration data shows." Well, this is a spot of good news, particularly when you consider that these folks often don't show up in the polls. Now, let's just hope the Diebold machines count their votes properly...

"The last sanctuary of the West Douglas wild horse herd is a desolate, forbidding place, which is just how the horses like it...Now, even this refuge may soon be lost. The U.S. Interior Department, which has leased 93 percent of the horses' preserve to energy companies, recently unveiled plans for evicting the entire herd. Under the proposal, the animals will be rounded up using nets and tranquilizer darts and then hauled away for adoption. The reason cited: Wild horses are incompatible with the region's intensive gas production." As in the NYT ten days ago, the Post checks out Dubya's terrible environmental record, with specific attention to the West, which is being cut, drained, mined, and refined away in order to secure extra energy profits for Dubya's corporate cronies. The party of TR? Not bloody likely.

As with the 9/11 commission, so with the American people. The Presidential Debate Commission tries to push back on Dubya's attempts to hide from voters.
'If any audience member poses a question or makes a statement that is in any material way different than the question that the audience member earlier submitted to the moderator for review, the moderator will cut off the questioner and advise the audience that such nonreviewed questions are not permitted,' the agreement reads. The men who negotiated the agreement, James A. Baker III for Mr. Bush and Vernon Jordan for Mr. Kerry, did not return telephone calls Tuesday. But several people involved in the debate discussions said most of these details were demanded by the Republicans."

"'This is a completely partisan thing,' one Defense Department voting official told Salon. The official, who asked to remain anonymous for fear of being fired, is one of the many people in the department assigned to help both uniformed military personnel as well as American civilians register to vote.'" For reasons that seem politically-motivated - and at the very least require much more explanation from the higher-ups who made the call, the DoD has blocked non-military access to the Federal Voting Assistant Program. (Those overseas voters needing access to the forms can get them here.) Particularly once you factor in the Omega fiasco as well, Rummy's sure getting his ducks in a row over at the Defense of Dubya Dept, isn't he? (Also seen at Expats Against Bush.)

At the behest of McCain-Feingold's backers, a federal judge eliminates 15 of 19 FEC rules designed to gut the 2002 campaign finance law. "'We began to wonder what law they were implementing,' [Congressman Chris] Shays said. "They were simply trying to rewrite the law to weaken it and put in loopholes.' Obviously, this decision is coming too late to affect this election cycle much, but perhaps we'll be able to get a honest sense of McCain-Feingold's impact in stemming corruption during the 2006 midterms. Update: As you might expect, the FEC will appeal the decision.

"What has emerged is the outline of an effort to use corporate contributions to control representative democracy in Texas." You think? Three members of the DeLay machine are indicted for illegal fundraising, and the Exterminator is -- naturally -- blaming it all on the Democrats. "'This is 41 days before the election. You do the political math,' DeLay said. 'People see this for what it is.'" Well, I see it as the first step in you going down, sucka. Update: The GOP circle the wagons.

Via Webgoddess, The paths of Charley, Francis, and Ivan cross-checked against Election 2000. Coincidence? Well, the Lord works in mysterious ways.

With CBS giving up on the Killian memos, both the NY Times and Salon try to refocus the story on the facts of Dubya's disappearance. Still an excellent question...

Although the agreement has not yet been finalized, word is Bush and Kerry will in fact debate thrice. Given that the "Bush campaign denied there was any deal," it seems this was a leak intended to prevent the Bushies from squirming out of debate #2. If so, nice job.

"While President Bush campaigns with an upbeat message that a second Bush administration will keep Americans safer, Cheney speaks like Darth Vader, as the ticket's voice of fear." On the day after our criminally inept Speaker of the House suggests yet again that a vote for Kerry is a vote for Bin Laden, the Post probes Dick Cheney's frequent fear-mongering.

So much for local control. GOP gun-nuts -- led by Senator Larry Craig of Idaho -- try to force the District of Columbia to rescind its gun ban and "roll back registration requirements." Republicans, argues DC Mayor Anthony Williams, are 'using our District as a pawn. It's an incredible assault on home rule.'"

"'Our committee heard blindly optimistic people from the administration prior to the war and people outside the administration -- what I call the "dancing in the street crowd," that we just simply will be greeted with open arms,' [Republican Richard] Lugar said. 'The nonsense of all of that is apparent. The lack of planning is apparent.'" A new intelligence report declares that, despite Dubya's dog-and-pony show, things are looking worse in Iraq. "At worst, the official said, were 'trend lines that would point to a civil war.'" Bang-up job, Dubya, as usual. "'It's beyond pitiful, it's beyond embarrassing, it's now in the zone of dangerous,' said Sen. Chuck Hagel, R-Nebraska," referring to the administration's disbursement of reconstruction money thus far. After getting us into this fiasco, the least the Bushies could have done was try to manage it properly. We must get these fools out of office already.

Well, even Dan Rather is backing away from the Killian memos at this point, which obviously does not bode well for their authenticity. And as for the larger questions about where Dubya spent all those post-drug-test AWOL months in 1972...well, I'm sure the mainstream press will get to those in due time, aren't you?

"He showed pathological lying habits and was in denial when challenged on his prejudices and biases. He would even deny saying something he just said 30 seconds ago. He was famous for that." Harvard Business School professor Yoshi Tsurumi remembers young Dubya, and, yes, even back then he was a profile in character and courage. "[H]e was such a bad student that I asked him once how he got in. He said, 'My dad has good friends.'"

"I expect the Bush administration will go down in history as the greatest disaster for public health and the environment in the history of the United States." Senator James Jeffords (I-VT) -- and the NY Times -- review Dubya's dismal environmental record. This piece bends over backwards to be charitable to the Dubya EPA, yet even here it's hard not to notice that George W. Bush's America increasingly has a sickly, charred smell to it.

He may not be able to stay awake during the Superbowl, but Dubya loves him some baseball...and, as it turns out, baseball owners love them some Dubya. "More than a dozen current and former owners and family members are among the president's top re-election fundraisers...Seven are Bush 'Rangers,' each raising at least $200,000, and six are 'Pioneers' who have brought in $100,000 or more.
" In contrast, Kerry received a paltry $2000 each from Red Sox chairman Tom Werner and Padres owner John Moores. Hmmm...between this and the Tim Robbins Hall of Fame fiasco last year, I must say I'm feeling pretty proud to be an NBA fan right now. While baseball lines Dubya's coffers, basketball puts up a Dem for president (albeit one who appears to have fallen off the radar at this critical political juncture.)

"A staple of Bush's stump speech is his claim that his Democratic challenger, John F. Kerry, has proposed $2 trillion in long-term spending, a figure the Massachusetts senator's campaign calls exaggerated. But the cost of the new tax breaks and spending outlined by Bush at the GOP convention far eclipses that of the Kerry plan." As Dubya prattles on about the purported profligacy of the "Senator from Massachusetts," the Post figures out the cost of four more years of Dubyanomics to be in excess of $3 trillion. I don't know about you, but I for one don't have that kind of money.

The dispute over the CBS memos rages on, with both sides digging in. I must say, the additional information offered by the Post does seem to suggest that the controversial Killian memos may in fact be bogus (although USA Today did independently obtain them "from a person with knowledge of Texas Air National Guard operations," for what that's worth.) Which, if so, leads one to wonder who out there could have been so base and stupid as to falsify these documents, when there's already so much legitimate evidence of Dubya's desertion. That's the GOP's racket, not ours. Still, I'm not yet 100% convinced.

Bad form, I know, but this week's Onion is particularly amusing. Take, for example, Hundreds Of Republicans Injured In Rush To Discredit Kerry. "'It's bad down here,' Savannah (GA) General Hospital director Lloyd Sautner said. 'We were still treating hurricane victims when all these politicians were hurt in the whirlwind of manufactured controversy.'" I also liked Bush Campaign More Thought Out Than Iraq War and Terry Gilliam's Barbeque Plagued by Production Delays.

The assault weapons ban expires tonight at midnight and, while it may not have been very effective anyway, somehow I get the sense that our homeland would be more secure with it in place. Shame on Dubya, and that goes double for the GOP Congress.

Despite what Sharon Bush is saying now, the NY Daily News declares it has spoken to "an unimpeachable source" who can confirm her earlier declaration of Dubya coking up at Camp David. As Drudge might say, developing...

"Now, would the 111th Fighter Interceptor Squadron have extravagantly purchased typewriters that contained the th superscript key? Would the military want or require typewriters with the 'th', 'nd', and 'rd' characters? Hmm. Ponder, Ponder. What would the 111th need with a th character... I'll leave that to the enterprising among you to deduce." So, as expected, the Bushies are pushing back hard on the 60 Minutes memos, and seem to have successfully managed shifting this news cycle from Dubya's whereabouts to questions of possible forgery. Well, first off, The Daily Kos (quoted above) has written up a pretty good blow-by-blow explaining how all this new wrangling over font-technology adds up to less than its seems.

Regarding the documents' authenticity, I think it's entirely possible that somebody tried to "frame a guilty man" here, particularly given the depths to which we've already seen the Swift Boaters stoop. But, for now, I'm still thinking the docs are legitimate, as (a) CBS is strongly standing by them, and have a corroborative witness in Maj. Gen Bobby Hodges, Col. Killian's (Republican) commanding officer, (b) unlike the Swift Boat allegations, they conform to what we already knew and to other information in the public record, and (c) Dubya's White House, who knows the full story, certainly didn't act like these could be fake documents when the story broke. At any rate, remove these Killian memos from the picture and the original question still stands: Where was Dubya, and why did he skip out on a required medical exam? Update: Experts in today's Boston Globe back up the authenticity of the documents, including one examiner, Philip Bouffard, who had earlier suggested doubts to the NY Times.

"'Do not resist one who is evil, but if anyone strikes you on the right cheek, turn to him the other.' CAN WE TRUST JESUS TO FIGHT THE WAR ON TERROR?" Via Mad Magazine and Eschaton, If Dubya was running against Jesus. Y'know, this is just the type of tax-and-spend fringe-lefty liberalism we've come to expect from hippy-dippy longhairs like Christ.

The numbers don't lie, folks. (Via Looka.)

Aside from the Philippines, Nigeria, and Poland, the world wants John Kerry by a landslide. Undecided voters out there, you know how you can "Ask the Audience" on Who Wants to Be a Millionaire when you're stumped? Consider it like that.

"The system's key vulnerability is that county election workers or others with access to the machines could type in a two-digit code and create a second set of results that would then be forwarded to the state as the county's official tally, said Bev Harris, one of the activists who filed the case." The State of California joins a lawsuit against Diebold Election Systems, the voting machine maker whose chief executive declared in 2003 that he is "committed to helping Ohio deliver its electoral votes to the president next year." Now, doesn't that seem like a strange Easter Egg to include in your voting machine? Between this and the Omega-DoD fiasco, the GOP endgame is starting to sound shady.

While the Senate (led by Senators Lieberman, McCain, Bayh, and Specter) has crafted a bipartisan security bill that encompasses all of the 9/11 commission's suggestions, Tom DeLay and the House GOP are, as per usual, off the reservation. "DeLay said the House will rely largely on its own expertise and insights, adding that 'we have plenty of experts on our committees.'" Well, what was the point of having a commission, then? And, I don't care how big the roaches are in Sugarland, Texas, Tom. Your "expertise" as a bug exterminator just isn't going to cut it.

"'It is outrageous and shameful to make the war on terror an instrument of their politics,' Kerry said. 'I defended this country when I was a young man, and they chose not to. And I will defend this country as president of the United States.'" John Kerry pushes back hard at Cheney for his indefensible remarks on Tuesday. Whatsmore, Kerry has keyed in on a way to concisely tie together two of Dubya's most grievous sins. To wit: "George W. Bush's wrong choices have led America in the wrong direction in Iraq and left America without the resources we need here at home." Simple, eloquent, and effective.

It seems that, for the Republicans, nothing says Homeland Security quite like easy access to assault weapons. "I think the will of the American people is consistent with letting it expire, so it will expire," notes GOP Senate Majority Leader Bill "Catkiller" Frist of the decade-old assault weapons ban set to end on Monday, despite the fact that 68% of Americans (and 74% of voters, in a separate poll) want to see it renewed. On the House side, perennial GOP freakshow Tom DeLay "dismissed the ban as 'a feel-good piece of legislation' and said flatly that it would expire Monday, even if Mr. Bush made an effort to renew it. 'If the president asked me, it would still be no,' Mr. DeLay said." Don't worry. I doubt he'll ask ya, although the electorate just might come November.

Based on new information unveiled during last night's 60 Minutes II, the big papers delve further into Dubya's AWOL shenanigans. Apparently, not only was Dubya suspended from flying due to his missed physical (which we already knew), but he blatantly ignored a direct order from his commanding officer (Col. Jerry Killian, now deceased) to report for a medical examination. (Killian complained in a private letter, heretofore unreleased, that Dubya was "talking to someone upstairs" to get out of it.) Nor, as the Boston Globe noted yesterday, was Dubya -- pictured at right wearing a ribbon he apparently never earned -- ever called to active duty or otherwise punished for this insubordination, or for any of his later lapses (such as not showing up for reserve duty in either Alabama or Massachusetts, as ordered.) "'It appears that no one wanted to hold him accountable,' said retired Major General Paul A. Weaver Jr., who retired in 2002 as the Pentagon's director of the Air National Guard." Yeah, what else is new?

Meanwhile, on the drug front, Sharon Bush is now trying to back away from her comments to Kitty Kelley on Dubya's alleged cocaine binging at Camp David. But, Doubleday is standing by the charge - in fact, they've got written notes and two witnesses (Kelley and her publisher) to verify Bush's original statement. Good for them...I would think Doubleday has planned very carefully for exactly this sort of thing prior to going public with any allegations from The Family.

Now, with the further details about Dubya's disappearance and the extent of his alleged coke habit each gaining notoriety in separate news channels, how much longer will it take before the major media outlets are forced to comment on the obvious drug test angle connecting the two threads? One has to wonder if the GOP strategy gurus are starting to rethink their not-so-Swift-Boat decision to put Vietnam in play.

Or, more to the point, 1002 points of light and counting have now been extinguished in the service of Dubya's unnecessary and mismanaged neocon sideshow in Iraq, and that's just the American count. (The Faces of the Fallen) As this site notes in an update of John Kerry's famous question, how do you ask a man or woman to be the last person to die for a lie? Update: And now it appears we've already reached another dubious milestone. "With the latest spike in violence in Baghdad, more U.S. troops have died since the turnover of power to an interim Iraqi government at the end of June than were killed during the U.S.-led invasion of the country in the spring of 2003."

"[I]f we make the wrong choice then the danger is that we'll get hit again, that we'll be hit in a way that will be devastating from the standpoint of the United States"...Um, say WHAT?!? You heard it straight from the mouth of the Vice-President, folks: vote for John Kerry and the terrorists will kill you. Cheney's remarks are so low and un-American that I'm almost at a loss for comment. (Plus, since we've broached the subject, it's also flat-out wrong...it's Dubya's missteps and budget cuts on Homeland Security, to say nothing of his idiotic and isolating diplomacy, that are more likely to add up to fatal embarrassment for our nation.) And this coming from a sitting veep...I mean, you must be joking. We're through the looking-glass now, people.

It's official...Dubya is trying to AWOL his way out of one of the debates. What a hero. If he can't face down John Kerry, how will he ever face down the (gasp) terrorists?

(No Bill Frist jokes, please.) With the GOP in full attack mode, the press weighs how to handle Kitty Kelley's book. Newsweek, for one, has already passed on publishing excerpts from The Family. Yes, the same Newsweek who just published this ridiculous Evan Thomas puff piece about Dubya's personal "transformation." C'mon, now.

Play with matches, Mr. President, and you're gonna get burned. With the Kitty Kelley cocaine allegations making the unofficial rounds (I've heard the book promotion begins in earnest on 9/14) and the Ben Barnes 60 Minutes interview coming up in short order, journalists start taking a harder look at Dubya's missing years. Adding fuel to the fire, a group called Texans for Truth has created this ad that will apparently begin airing on Friday.

Along the lines of the Washington Monthly forum posted last Friday, The Guardian asks a number of American writers -- among them Paul Auster, Norman Mailer,and Richard Ford -- for their thoughts on a second Bush term, and it ain't pretty. (As you may have seen elsewhere, Mailer has birddogged a choice Goering quote which I won't re-post here for fear of invoking Godwin's Law.)

13 more soldiers dead in Iraq since yesterday, a looming $2.29 trillion deficit over the next ten years...I mean, really, what's it going to take to persuade people that Amateur Hour in the White House needs to end?

"Don't listen to the filter, or the facts -- listen to the words." By way of One Good Move and The Daily Show, the RNC Campaign Film George W. Bush: Words Speak Louder than Actions. It's been making the rounds for a couple of days now, but still, this is a must-watch. (And there's a transcript at Trenchant.)

Not content with the elements of freak-show conservatism in his acceptance speech or the flattening effect of Dubya's giveaways to the rich in recent years, Dubya is now threatening an official flat tax (not unlike the one imposed by fiat on Iraq last November.) As even Phil Gramm attested eight years ago, "It's not fair to say that people who work with their head or with their hands ought to pay taxes, but people who earn their living with their capital ought not to."

The fallout from the forthcoming and much-awaited Kitty Kelley book on the Bushes breaks on Drudge today, with Kelley exposing a new twist on what has basically amounted to an open secret: In the book, Kelley "quotes...former sister-in-law Sharon Bush who claims: 'Bush did coke at Camp David when his father was President, and not just once either.' Other acquaintances allege that as a 26-year-old National Guard, Bush 'liked to sneak out back for a joint or into the bathroom for a line of cocaine.'" Again, not surprising, given other stories, previous rumors, and Dubya's nervous habit of incessant sniffling, but it's nice to see heroic Bush's wastrel years finally get some play. Perhaps the media will manage to put two and two together.

I also found this grisly pic of Angry Cheney on Looka (and Eschaton), and it reminded me of something that I couldn't quite put my finger on. But, while walking Berkeley this evening, it came to me. In fact, I think I might just have figured out the inspiration behind Karl Rove's whole two-faced strategy:

And, just to round out the meme...

(Pics via HalloweenTown. And a similar take on the Zellout can be found here, also via Eschaton.) Update: The Zellout also brought to mind this, but I ultimately thought it was a disservice to poor Bilbo. He wasn't that far gone in Rivendell.

By way of Looka and the NY Times editorial page, the Defense Department is trying to deny soldiers the secret ballot, and guess who they're giving the votes to? "Omega Technologies is not an acceptable choice to run the program. Its chief executive, Patricia Williams, has donated $6,600 in this election cycle to the National Republican Congressional Committee, and serves on the committee's Business Advisory Council. And while everything about the conduct of elections should be open to public scrutiny, Omega is far too secretive."

The nation's senior citizens got a dose of what they could expect from a second Bush term yesterday: a 17.5% hike in Medicare premiums. Nice of the Post to accentuate the screwy timing of the announcement: "As most Americans began the Labor Day holiday weekend, federal health officials held a late-afternoon briefing to announce that the 42 million disabled and elderly Medicare beneficiaries will be hit with the largest premium increase in 15 years."

"Democracy matters are frightening in our time precisely because the three dominant dogmas of free-market fundamentalism, aggressive militarism, and escalating authoritarianism are snuffing out the democratic impulses that are so vital for the deepening and spread of democracy in the world. In short, we are experiencing the sad American imperial devouring of American democracy." By way of Rebecca's Pocket and DangerousMeta, Princeton philosopher (and Matrix Elder) Cornel West weighs in on the dangers of Dubyaism.

"'We're at the height of the Roman Empire for the Republican Party...[but i]f we continue to lose 90 percent of the African American vote -- and I got 7 percent -- if we continue to lose 65 percent of the Hispanic vote, we're toast...Just look at the electoral map.'" With or without a second term for Dubya, Republican Senators Lindsey Graham and Chuck Hagel see trouble ahead for the GOP. Notes Hagel: "The Republican Party has come loose of its moorings."

Are you sitting down? Time Magazine is reporting that Dubya's now up 11 on Kerry, 52%-41%. Phew, that's ugly...but we are post-convention now, and, various October surprises notwithstanding, I really can't see how Dubya goes anywhere but down. Plus, we already know both Kerry and Edwards are solid closers. Still, the GOP and their corporate cronies have gotten away with misrepresenting John Kerry for far too long. For the sake of our republic, it's time to push these lying bastards back. Update: A new Newsweek poll shows basically the same spread. Grr.

By way of Value Judgment, are the Bushies trying to weasel out of a third debate? It figures.

In the new Washington Monthly, David Greenberg, E.J. Dionne, Paul Begala, and several others ponder the troubling question, "What if Bush wins?" The short answer? Head for the hills.

"'Let me tell you what I think makes someone unfit for duty,' Kerry said. 'Misleading our nation into war in Iraq makes you unfit to lead this nation. Doing nothing while this nation loses millions of jobs makes you unfit to lead this nation. Letting 45 million Americans go without health care makes you unfit to lead this nation. Letting the Saudi royal family control our energy costs makes you unfit to lead this nation. Handing out billions [in] government contracts without a bid to Halliburton while you're still on their payroll makes you unfit.'" It's about freakin' time we got some push-back...now just wait until the Pleasure Boat Captains for Truth ads start airing.

"Only in an election year ruled by fiction could a sissy who used Daddy's connections to escape Vietnam turn an actual war hero into a girlie-man." A more irate-than-usual Frank Rich examines how Dubya's minions have kept him a leg up in today's testosterone-fueled election cycle, despite the fact that "nearly anyone is more manly than a president who didn't have the guts to visit with the 9/11 commission unaccompanied by a chaperone."

Punctuating a frustrating week for Democrats, Bill Clinton suffers chest discomfort and may need quintuple-bypass surgery as early as tomorrow. Get well soon, Mr. President, and best wishes on a speedy recovery. (Clinton's diet, exercise level, and family history notwithstanding, to my mind the Zellout now has even more to answer for.) Update: The operation was apparently a success, although Clinton will probably not recover fast enough to hit the road before Election Day. Get your rest, Mr. President -- we need you for the long haul.

Well, with talk of deregulation, privatizing Social Security, tax code "simplification", anti-gay and pro-life rhetoric, "Hollywood value" and "activist judge" hectoring...all punctuated by that off-putting and consistently out-of-place chimp smirk, you can't say Dubya didn't warn us about his plans for a ultra-conservative second term last night. (And for a man who was heroic enough to stop circling Nebraska and venture down to Ground Zero three long days after 9/11, he seemed amazingly ready to bolt-and-run at the sign of one measly protestor.)

Not much was said about Dubya's first four years in office, of course, aside from 9/11 (9/11, 9/11) and the usual conflation of Al Qaeda and Saddam. But, really, what can he say? Deficits through the roof, the worst jobs record since Herbert Hoover, 1000 men and women dead in a needless diversion of a war...His administration has been an embarrassment of historic proportions. And it is time for him to go. (Dubya video via I'm Just Sayin'.)

As the dust settles from the GOP convention and Tom DeLay emerges from hiding, the truth starts coming back to light. Naturally, Dubya's speech had serious problems with reality and the GOP severely distorted Kerry's voting record. Obviously, Cheney and the Zellout were full of it. More surprisingly, however, Arnold Schwarzenegger apparently doesn't know Austria from a hole in the ground.

"'The impression I had was that Georgie was raising a lot of hell in Houston, getting in trouble and embarrassing the family, and they just really wanted to get him out of Houston and under Jimmy's wing,'" A widow of a Texas political operative remembers young Dubya. "Allison remembers encountering George W. Bush in the parking lot, urinating on a car, and hearing later about how he'd yelled obscenities at police officers that night. Bush left a house he'd rented in Montgomery trashed -- the furniture broken, walls damaged and a chandelier destroyed, the Birmingham News reported in February. 'He was just a rich kid who had no respect for other people's possessions,' Mary Smith, a member of the family who rented the house, told the newspaper, adding that a bill sent to Bush for repairs was never paid." Yep, he's presidential caliber.

By way of a friend of mine in the program, the NY Post has discovered that apparently the GOP delegates are terrible tippers. "'I wouldn't call them bad tippers -- I'd call them non-tippers!,' said Thomas Potesak, a concierge at the Sheraton Manhattan...'It's like they're completely unfamiliar with the concept of tipping.'...Abraham Bolzman of the New York Hilton was also perplexed...'They're always saying 'God bless you.' I guess I'm used to something more tangible.'"

"If you believe that government should be accountable to the people, not the people to the government, then you are a Republican." If you believe that rich people deserve tax breaks while the middle-class struggle harder and the poor send their kids to war, then you are a Republican. If you believe that cutting First Responder, Homeland Security, and Nunn-Lugar funding, lying bald-faced to our allies before the UN, letting Osama Bin Laden disappear into the caverns of Afghanistan, and contriving a casus belli to start a war in Iraq that has further alienated the moderate Muslim world is sound anti-terror strategy, then you are a Republican. If you believe an extramarital blow job is an impeachable offense, but dissembling to the American people about war is hunky-dory, then you are a Republican. If you believe God loves you, but He hates gays, liberals, and foreigners, then you are a Republican. If you're an immigrant bodybuilder who made it to the top of his field through hard work, discipline, and the judicious application of enough steroids to kill a small horse, then you are a Republican. And if you're a serial groper who was befuddled enough to think Nixon was a good idea in 1968 and who somehow earnestly believes that the GOP hasn't moved much further right since the days of Tricky Dick, then you are Arnold Schwarzenegger.

"If they question Kerry's medals, they question everybody's medals...We've got to get that garbage off the air as soon as we can." So says John McCain of the Swift Smear in private, and to his credit, he at least hasn't lied about his personal stance as brazenly as Bob "Democrat War" Dole. But, Senator McCain, if you're so "nauseated" by the Swifties, one would think you could leverage your vaunted (and quickly deteriorating) prestige a bit more mightily. You had the ear of the political world last night, and you chose to spend your time unabashedly conflating 9/11 and Iraq to benefit Team Dubya, the author of those ads. For shame.

So, Dubya, are we going to win the war on terror or not? Short answer: Not with you in the saddle we won't. (I liked the Kerry campaign's riposte -- "Bush: Against Winning the War on Terror Before He Was for It.")

I often run cold on Will Saletan, but I thought his summary of last night's GOP speeches was dead on. On the subtext of John McCain's remarks: "Forget the tax cuts. Forget the outsourcing. Forget the dividend tax breaks and the estate tax repeal. Pay no attention to the hand in your pocket. Close your eyes and think of America." On Giuliani's fib-filled suck-up to Dubya: "[T]he most important characteristic of a great speaker -- contrary to the view of my colleagues who are raving about Giuliani's speech -- is being honest. Bush wasn't right, and Giuliani isn't honest, and no amount of bullheadedness can make up for that."

Whatsmore, Saletan has kept his current streak going with today's piece on the problem with Dubya's so-called courage: "Pardon me for asking, but where exactly is the heroism in this story? Where, indeed, is the heroism in anything Bush has done before 9/11 or since?...This is Bush's heroism? Showing up three days later, 'remaining in the area,' and enduring a hug?"

"As a Democrat, Miller is an entertaining man-bites-dog story, and a minor celebrity in GOP circles. As a Republican he's just another partisan hack." On the eve of the Senator's biggest sellout yet, Slate examines the strange case of the incredible shrinking Zell.

Interrupting my usual enjoyment of the Sunday NYT crossword this past week was the magazine's cover story, in which conservative media darling David Brooks tried to outline a new "progressive conservatism" for 2008. Given my interest, historical and otherwise, in reviving progressivism in any form, I applaud Brooks for giving it the ole college try here. But this piece suffers from a couple of serious problems.

For one, there's not much "new" here. Writers like Michael Sandel have already thoroughly outlined this project, the case for a Hamiltonian revival was done better in Michael Lind's Hamilton's Republic, and even George Will anticipated much of Brooks's argument on government, culture, and fostering independence twenty years ago with Statecraft as Soulcraft.

More problematic, Brooks seems totally unacquainted with his own party. "[A]lmost every leading official acknowledges that we should have as much of a welfare state as we can afford." Oh, really? On education, "[m]ore and more conservatives understand that local control means local monopolies and local mediocrity." Coulda fooled me. "Most Republicans, happily or not, have embraced a significant federal role in education." Well, somebody should tell these guys.

I don't want to harsh on Brooks too much, because at least he's trying to make the case for something close to a progressive resurgence ("But through much of American history there has always been a third tradition, now dormant, which believes in limited but energetic government in the name of social mobility and national union.") But first he's gotta realize that he's standing on the shoulders of giants here, and should say as much. And, more importantly, if we really wants to see a return to progressivism, he's probably looking in the wrong party. As Bill Moyers recently and eloquently restated, progressivism was ultimately a reaction against the corporate domination of politics that afflicted the Gilded Age, and somehow that doesn't seem to bother the current GOP too much. Dubya and Rove apparently aspire to be William McKinley and Mark Hanna respectively, and the closest thing the GOP had to a TR is now gleefully prostrating himself before his corporate overlords. So, we're probably going to have to search elsewhere for our Teddys, Woodrows, and Crolys these days.

Of course, there are some New Yorkers happy to see the GOP here, namely the finance types. "[T]he firms, which lean Republican in their political giving, are eager to show their gratitude to President Bush and GOP lawmakers for enacting legislation providing billions of dollars in tax and other benefits to their industry and for Bush's pledge to seek even deeper tax cuts." Yeah, I bet they are. Well, at least the GOP does in fact support their corporate "values"...In fact, Wall Street may be one of the few groups of self-professed Republicans around the country that aren't being lied to constantly by the Bushies.

Aside from one burning float (and poor mask-wearing Rosario Dawson), the first protests against the GOP Invasion Force were both plentiful and peaceful. (I thought the Billionaires for Bush bit was a particularly nice flourish.) I just hope the rest of the protesters this week are better than I am at restraining their anger and contempt over the 9/11 graverobbing about to ensue.

The board is set, the pieces are moving, and a host of sweaty, overweight middle-aged white guys in short-sleeve dress shirts marches forth to hold our fair city siege. (You think I'm kidding, I was surrounded by a gaggle of 'em earlier this afternoon outside Artie's Deli...they all had matching GOP 2004 name tags, along with their designated rank in the Noble and Benevolent Order of Somesuch, and they were all sizing up passers-by with sneers that suggested equal parts suspicion, fear, and disgust. Look, buds, the feeling's mutual. People are strange when you're a stranger, and y'all are most definitely strangers.)

Meanwhile, it already looks like a 5-Star Grand Theft Auto rampage down at the Garden, with cops everywhere, choppers overhead, and black SUVs with police lights zooming back and forth. 33rd St. is completely cordoned off, Herald Square has become Hardball central, and concrete cinder blocks have been placed at all corners of MSG. Not much of a protester presence at the venue yet, although some forces seem to be gathering around Union Square (where I picked up the button at right.) Oh, yes, it should be a hot time in old New York town next week.

Oops. While he's been carrying water for the Swifty liars on-the-air, Bob Dole let his real feelings about Dubya's tactics be known to Wolf Blitzer sotto voce. Fortunately, the mics picked it up and the studio guys passed it on to Slate for public consumption. So much for being the Elder Statesman. Dole, you have no pride.

"The ranks of the poor and those without health insurance grew in 2003 for the third straight year, the government reported on Thursday." What more needs to be said? In the immortal words of Ronald Reagan, are you better off today than you were four years ago?

Kerry takes a sizable hit in the polls that extends to swing states, thanks largely to the Swift lies still being bandied about as news. Chris over at Do You Feel Loved ably summed up my thoughts on the controversy. I'm a cynical fellow relatively wise to "politics ain't beanbag"-type shenanigans, but the sheer corruption of this whole GOP enterprise is somewhat staggering. What we have going on here is akin to the Kerry campaign funding a spate of backdoor ads declaring Dubya a serial wife-beater, and having the national news media ponder the charges despite all evidence to the contrary. Wait...is there evidence to the contrary? Did I mention I saw Dubya swing madly at Laura while he was on a three-day drunk in 1978? Well, yes, I was only four in 1978, but why should that matter? Dubya's a wife-beater.

Play "Free Bird"! Actually, hold that, don't. Apparently, Lynyrd Skynyrd will jam for the GOP, along with ZZ Top, the Charlie Daniels Band, 38 Special, and the Marshall Tucker Band. Not exactly a Murderer's Row of musical talent, are they? I'd take the Vote for Change lineup over this crowd any day of the week and twice on Sunday.

"When a tree falls in the forest, does it make a sound? If resistance against Bush actually plays into Bush's hands, is it really resistance?" In the Voice, Rick Perlstein joins the many lefty voices urging caution to protesters during next week's convention.

In a surprising (yet very likely vetted and scripted) exchange, Dick Cheney distances himself from Dubya's hard line against gay marriage. What a compassionately conservative way to make news the week before the convention, no? Sure, Cheney probably does harbor some reservations about the religious right's goofy stance on gay marriage, given his family relationship to the issue, and I suppose I should give him credit for mentioning them aloud. But, it's hard to buy his second-thoughts now, when he's been so silent on the topic these past few months...it's too convenient by half.

Say what you will about the Dem ticket, but at least they understand the importance of protecting our precious bodily fluids from terrorist and Communist impurifications. This October, John Edwards will introduce Dr. Strangelove for Turner Classic Movies. (By way of Quiddity.) For the rest of the "Party Politics and the Movies" series, John McCain chose Paths of Glory, Joe Biden picked Dead Poets Society, and Orrin Hatch took To Kill a Mockingbird.

"[O]n close examination, the accounts of Swift Boat Veterans for Truth prove to be riddled with inconsistencies. In many cases, material offered as proof by these veterans is undercut by official Navy records and the men's own statements. Several of those now declaring Mr. Kerry 'unfit' had lavished praise on him, some as recently as last year." The Times ably dissects the Swift Veterans smear-job, complete with a spiffy graphic linking its moneymen to Dubya. "Records show that the group received the bulk of its initial financing from two men with ties to the president and his family - one a longtime political associate of Mr. Rove's, the other a trustee of the foundation for Mr. Bush's father's presidential library."

"The president -- highly intelligent, personally flawed, detested by many, a man who was first elected in a narrow three-way race and then reelected easily -- had faced impeachment. In the following election, his vice president, a decent man with decades on Capitol Hill, was beaten by an inexperienced governor from the South. Four years passed. The economy weakened and oil prices soared. Crises in the Persian Gulf and Afghanistan eroded our national confidence. Clearly the president was in trouble. Yet many were not comfortable with his opponent. Yes, he was effective on television. But was he a steady hand? Was he trustworthy? Would the country be safe in his hands? The year was, of course, 1980." James K. Galbraith makes the case for a decisive Kerry-Edwards victory in November.

Iraq's Olympic soccer team ask to be removed from Bush re-election ads. "'My problems are not with the American people,' says Iraqi soccer coach Adnan Hamad. 'They are with what America has done in Iraq: destroy everything.'" Sorry, y'all...it's just that Dubya has very little to fall back on these days. It's not like he can campaign on his domestic record.

"Each session is like a 90-minute support group dedicated to him...For most of the question-and-answer sessions, the president is endlessly being thanked, for 'serving our country,' for 'everything you did after September 11th.'" Hannah Rosin of the Post attends an "Ask President Bush" pep rally, in which Everyday Americans Just Like You are carefully weeded out in favor of pliant conservatives and Dubya-friendly evangelicals. In Salon, Sidney Blumenthal contextualizes this strategy: "'Ask President Bush' has crystallized the essential underlying question, framed succinctly by the greatest American poet of democracy, Walt Whitman, who wrote, 'The President is there in the White House for you, it is not you who are here for him.'"

"[H]ere's what you really need to know about them. They're funded by hundreds of thousands of dollars from a Republican contributor out of Texas. They're a front for the Bush campaign. And the fact that the President won't denounce what they're up to tells you everything you need to know. He wants them to do his dirty work." After remaining relatively quiet about the Swift Veteran Liars (whose falsifications are now contradicted by military records as well) in the early going, John Kerry finally returns fire at the man behind the curtain, George W. Bush. (Or would that be Karl Rove? Well, you get the picture.)

"It just outrages me that someone who got five deferments during Vietnam and said he had 'other priorities' at that time would say that...When I hear this coming from Dick Cheney, who was a coward, who would not serve during the Vietnam War, it makes my blood boil...He'll be tough, but he'll be tough with someone else's kid's blood." Iowa Senator Tom Harkin lashes out at Cheney for the "sensitive war" bit he was banging into the ground last week. I don't much care for the notion that not serving in Vietnam makes anybody a coward...but, then again, the veep had this coming. He should've known better than to push the tough guy thing so hard. After all, he's a war profiteer, not a warrior.

Various media outlets preview the protests in store for the GOP convention in two weeks. I basically agree with those who think that the protests will have to be very clever to have anything but a negative effect for the Kerry team. Shrill, violent, and generally idiotic forms of protest will only play right into the hands of the GOP, who are practically begging to have the distinction made between their flag-waving, 9/11-tombrobbing soiree in the Garden and the radical unwashed masses just outside. And given how lazy and bored the national newsmedia acted in Boston, I'd expect that the Talking Heads will be actively seeking out the craziest loons they can muster just so they can turn them into the story. We're treading on delicate ground here, fellow lefty New Yorkers...let's not screw this up.

"I don't know about you, but when I hear a statement meant to inflame gratuitous resentment of white people, I prefer that it come from a black person. A white man who puts on blackface to call John Kerry's wife a fraudulent African-American is committing so many kinds of bad faith that I scarcely know where to start." Slate's Tim Noah delves into a new anti-Teresa ad running on black radio stations. Between this and Swift Veterans, it's becoming clear that there's no level below which the GOP will not sink this time 'round.

Apparently, evangelicals are still waiting by the phone for their GOP convention invites. "'People who are not part of the religious right might be alienated if they put too many conservatives as the public face of the party,' said Merle Black, a political scientist at Emory University in Atlanta." You think?

Alas, the Bush campaign drops 'turning a corner'. That's too bad. It was so tone-deaf and Hoover-esque that I'd hoped Dubya would keep saying it right through to November.

"Clinton says in 1999 to General Hugh Shelton, 'You know, it would scare the s**t out of al-Qaeda if suddenly a bunch of black ninjas rappelled out of a helicopter into the middle of their camp,' 189." N+1 indexes the 9/11 Commission Report, so you can get straight to the good parts.

"You are the heirs of one of the country's great traditions -- the progressive movement that started late in the l9th century and remade the American experience piece by piece until it peaked in the last third of the 20th century...Its aim was to keep blood pumping through the veins of democracy when others were ready to call in the mortician...While the social dislocations and meanness that galvanized progressives in the 19th century are resurgent, so is the vision of justice, fairness, and equality. That's a powerful combination if only there are people around to fight for it. The battle to renew democracy has enormous resources to call upon - and great precedents for inspiration."

By way of a friend of mine, Bill Moyers recounts the Progressive Story of America. The whole thing's worth a read...and I for one think it's great to hear the Progressives get their due. (Along the same lines, this month's Prospect has a special report entitled "A New Progressive Era?", with contributions from, among others, Sean Wilentz, James MacGregor Burns, and John Podesta.) Progressives take a lot of flak in the Academy, some justified (they were silent on lynching and generally really lousy on race), some not (ridiculous amounts of ink has been spilled lambasting them for being middle-class, bureaucratic, and/or unSocialist.)

With visions of the 2000 primary perhaps dancing in his head, John McCain asks the White House to repudiate the recent Swift Boat Veterans garbage. (Naturally, they didn't.) The real ugliness begins.

A few days out of date now, but still worth reading: Bruce Springsteen on the need for regime change. "It is through the truthful exercising of the best of human qualities - respect for others, honesty about ourselves, faith in our ideals - that we come to life in God's eyes. It is how our soul, as a nation and as individuals, is revealed. Our American government has strayed too far from American values. It is time to move forward."

Have reports of a bounce-less bounce been exaggerated? The often-insufferable William Saletan parses the recent polls and finds much mojo for Kerry hidden in the numbers.

"Although these events concern different legal issues and different sets of detainees, they share a common denominator: a legal strategy to keep the rule of law out of the war on terrorism by whatever procedural, legal, or administrative means are available." According to Slate's Phillip Carter, the Dubya administration is obstructing and/or ignoring the recent Supreme Court decisions on the Gitmo Gulag. Sadly, I guess we couldn't expect any less from this crowd.

From REM.HQ: "The band officially confirmed today that the new record will be titled Around the Sun...Around the Sun will be released on Warner Bros. Records October 4th (internationally) and October 5th in the United States. The first single will be 'Leaving New York.'" And, in other R.E.M. news, the band will be part of MoveOn's Vote For Change Tour, with Bruce Springsteen, Pearl Jam, Jurassic 5, and many others.

"Does anyone really favor an administration that so shamelessly lies? One that so tenaciously clings to secrecy, not to protect the American people, but to protect itself? That so willfully misrepresents its true aims and so knowingly misleads the people from whom it derives its power? I simply cannot think so." Ron Reagan eviscerates George W. Bush in Esquire.

So did Kerry-Edwards get a post-convention bounce or not? Depends on how you spin it, it seems. I'm not too concerned, frankly...I think most people know how they're going to vote at this point (including the Kerry Republicans.)

Well, thank goodness the GOP Congress has finally done something to alleviate the financial burden of sports team ownership in this country. When I think of all the pain, misery, and degradation that Mark Cuban, George Steinbrenner, and other multi-millionaires have been subjected to by the tax code of late, my heart just sickens. Now hopefully Congress will turn their attention to eliminating the IRS entirely, and I'll be able to sleep knowing that no corporate CEO or energy baron will ever again be unduly harrassed in this great nation.

Well, other than the over-the-top salute at the very beginning of his remarks, I'd say Kerry knocked it out of the park last night. It was definitely the best speech I've ever heard of him give, and one surprisingly full of red meat to lob back at the Bushies. As a result, Kerry seemed energetic and self-assured and, well, presidential throughout. All in all, I thought it a very impressive performance, and one that should help him a great deal in the time between now and the debates, bounce or no.

As for Edwards the night before, I actually thought his speech, despite the nice "Hope is on the Way" refrain, was a bit of a letdown after Obama's rousing keynote. Edwards seemed to stumble a few times in the middle going, and I found the tone a bit too conversational to produce any really memorable turns of phrase. Still, any other year, I think the Senator's speech would've been one of the highlights of the convention. The fact that it loses some luster when compared to those of Clinton, Obama, and Kerry speaks very highly of the overall quality of this year's proceedings in Boston.

Speaking of which, I'd say the GOP will be extremely hard-pressed to match the Democrats' unity, optimism, and energy in a month, particularly with the legions of embittered conservatives in attendance at the Garden. Well, even if they do muster up a fine three-ring circus at the end of August, John Kerry, John Edwards, and the Democrats have proven this week they're ready for the fight. So bring it on.

From the bookmarks: Rick Perlstein tries to wrap his mind around Bush Country for the Village Voice. It ain't easy.

I must say...so far, this is turning out to be one of the more enjoyable Democratic conventions in recent memory. Bill Clinton turned it on on Monday, reminding everyone in America what a truly committed and competent president looks like. And last night was, in the inimitable phrasing of Mo Rocca, Obamatastic! As for the rest of the speeches, the only one that's rubbed me the wrong way so far is Gore's, who was his usual pedantic self. Otherwise, everyone seems fired up and on message...now, if only America was watching. (The cable ratings may be up, but I'm willing to bet most of those viewers already know who they're voting for.)

At any rate, after Clinton and Obama, John Edwards will have two very hard acts to follow tonight, but I'm willing to bet he's up to the task.

"Conservatives have 'been working on redefining the word "liberal" for decades, and turning it into a four-letter word...We don't want to give up the word. We've been losing the fight for the definition.'" Sixteen years after Bush I first hammered it into the ground, the Post examines the status of "liberal" as a GOP epithet (and Dem rallying cry.)

At least McCain gets the message. The Senator from Arizona came out forcefully against the doomed and ridiculous amendment yesterday, arguing: "The constitutional amendment we're debating today strikes me as antithetical in every way to the core philosophy of Republicans." Um, have you looked around your own party lately? It's not the Dems pushing this garbage.

Ticked by the choice slots allotted to Schwarzenegger, McCain, Giuliani, and other GOP moderates, the social conservatives angle for more convention time. By all means, please give it to them.

Speaking of the conservative fringe, investigations into Enron have produced more evidence of corporate fundraising shadiness by the DeLay machine in Texas. This guy has got to go, already.

Postponing Election Day?!? You must be joking. Are "the terrorists" going to infiltrate every middle school gymnasium and public library in the country, counting extra votes for Kerry and offsetting Dubya's Diebold advantage? We held elections in this nation in 1864, 1944, 1968...surely we can handle 2004.

Whatsmore, what's all this talk of terrorists determining the election anyway? When are the Bushies going to realize that Osama Bin Laden and his ilk probably prefer Dubya in office? No other man could have so brazenly squandered the enormous international reservoir of post-9/11 goodwill, so thoroughly fractured the natural alliance of the West against terrorism, or so decisively set the moderate Muslim world against the United States. For Osama bin Laden, George W. Bush is a godsend. For three and a half long years, he's been a divider, not a uniter.

Postponing Election Day...my Lord, what tripe. Yes, I know Homeland Security is covering its bases by arguing that they're just thinking out loud. Well, it's still a terrible idea, and a particularly tone-deaf one coming from an administration who came into office so ignominiously with Bush v. Gore. Forget Warren Harding or even Richard Nixon -- this presidency has earned its place since that 5-4 decision as the most corrupt in our nation's history. They have to be shown the door on Election Day, and not a day later.

Partisanship 1, Civil Liberties 0. The House GOP ride to the administration's rescue and, by means both fair and foul, block a critical challenge to the Patriot Act with a 210-210 tie vote. "Rep. C.L. Butch Otter (R-Idaho), a conservative and an advocate of the defeated provision, told reporters after the vote: 'You win some, and some get stolen.'"

Similarly, GOP Senator Pat Roberts covers Dubya's back by making Tenet the fall guy for the WMD fiasco in the Senate Intelligence Committee report, while preventing any further investigation into White House efforts to arm-twist the CIA into the right conclusions. "'The Republicans ultimately and effectively, at the end of the day, controlled this investigation. There's no doubt about it. And they tried to put a bipartisan patina on it, but anybody who accepts that on face value is out of touch,' said [a] former Democratic aide."

Hmm. So the military records that would theoretically prove that Dubya was not AWOL and hiding from a drug test in 1973 have been "inadvertently destroyed" by the Pentagon. Funny, that. (Via Princess Diana/Medley.)

Speaking of Dubya and "shared values," I neglected to post this earlier, so the links are kinda stale now. (Compounding my bad form, I also forgot where I saw them originally.) Nevertheless, much to the chagrin of many pastors and theologians, the Dubya campaign is leaning heavily on churchgoers to join an ecclesiastical voting army this November. "Even Richard Land, president of the Southern Baptist Convention's ethics and religious liberty commission and a prominent Bush supporter, recoiled at the idea of churches becoming directly involved in a political campaign. 'I am appalled,' Land said in a statement. 'I suspect that this will rub a lot of pastors' fur the wrong way...It's one thing for a church member motivated by exhortations to exercise his Christian citizenship to go out and decide to work on the Bush campaign or the Kerry campaign. It's another, and totally inappropriate for a political campaign, to ask workers who may be church members to provide church member information through...directories." Will Karl's Crusade against Kerry-Edwards falter before it's even begun?

In his first riposte against his new Dem adversary, Dubya questions Edwards's qualifications for the Presidency. Good God, man, we let you take the position (although admittedly it did take some prodding by the Supreme Court.) For the Dems' part, Kerry had a pretty solid response: "He was right that Dick Cheney was ready to take over on Day One, and did, and he has been ever since, folks."

Apparently, the Bushies are also keying in on "shared values" as their answer to the threat of Kerry-Edwards. Shared values? Puh-leeze. Playing bait-and-switch on the American people? Wading neck deep in corporate cronyism? Handing the rich tax-cut candy at the expense of everyone else? Those ain't my values, bud.

Aigh! Attack, attack! No, we don't know when. No, we don't know where. No, we're not raising the threat level. No, we're not sorry we let Osama slip away so we could dink around Iraq. Just be afraid, and, remember, the terrorists want to "disrupt the democratic process" and make you vote Kerry-Edwards. You have been warned. Good day.

Kenny Boy, Your pants, your pants are falling. Ken Lay, former Enron CEO and Bush's prime corporate sponsor, is indicted on 11 counts of fraud. Says Lay's lawyer, "Obviously, Andy [Fastow] and his group were not telling the boss that they were stealing from Enron. That's as obvious as can be . . . It was done by stealth and deceit and of course, in a company as big as Enron, you have to trust someone and obviously trust was placed in the wrong place." Ok, then explain why Lay dumped $24 million in Enron stock while telling his employees to buy. Throw the book at him, already. (But, by all means, let him speak his mind first.) Update: Dubya can't handle the truth.

The wait is over, and, in a very good decision by the Kerry team, John Edwards joins the Democratic ticket. This seems like a very smart call (although also a bit of a no-brainer...is there a single person in America who would've voted for Kerry because Gephardt was veep? Heck, even Nader knew the right choice) Edwards not only balances Kerry nicely (Southerner/son of a mill worker), but should seem an order of magnitude more appealing than the disgruntled and curmudgeonly Big Time in the debates. Plus, his optimism and good humor will be an enormous asset when the real mud starts flying in the fall.

All in all, as I said when he came to Columbia a few months back, Edwards has a great future in the Democratic party and American politics, and it's wonderful news that he made the ticket (and has become an instant future contender for the Oval Office.) Go team go.

For their part, the Bushies try to counteract the Edwards pick with a new ad featuring John McCain, which you can watch over at Dubya's campaign site. Um, is this really the best they could do with a blue chip like McCain? Giving a thousand-yard stare off-camera into the distance, reading from a prepared speech, looking away as Bush simpers on stage, McCain's tone and body language hardly seems that effusive an endorsement. In fact, I'm surprised he didn't rattle off his serial number or blink S.O.S during his remarks.

Well, I'm a bit behind on this one, but I finally got out of the apartment to catch Michael Moore's Fahrenheit 9/11 yesterday afternoon. And the verdict? Well, it's undoubtedly an extremely powerful piece of cinema. And, judging from the reactions of the afternoon crowd, it looks as if it might do some real good in crystallizing popular discontent with the Bush administration outside of the blog-world echo chamber. Still, even though I know Moore is playing by the rules set by right-wing freak shows like Rush Limbaugh and Ann Coulter, I found myself wishing at times that he had played F911 a little straighter. Simply put, Dubya and his cronies are guilty of so much blatant incompetence and documentable malfeasance that it's disappointing that Moore feels he has to rely on cheapshots and push-button emotions some of the time.

If you've been keeping up with pretty much any lefty blog since 2000 (including this one), the central and most powerful allegations made here -- that Dubya and the Neocons played bait-and-switch on the American people in Iraq and used 9/11 as a pretext for all kinds of terrible legislation, while doing pathetically little to minimize the actual threat of terrorism -- will not come as a surprise. Still, when the data is laid out before you here like ducks in a row, from the Florida fiasco in 2000 through to the recent stonewalling of the 9/11 commission a few weeks ago, the continued pattern of incompetence and mendacity that has characterized this administration becomes unmistakably clear. As the story unfolds, Moore offers plenty of intriguing footage -- Bush's 7 minutes of Pet Goat superfluousness may perhaps be overemphasized by now, but it's still out-and-out eerie. Equally damning is footage of Dubya at the ranch a month prior to 9/11, in which he has absolutely no clue what his agenda is for the day and, whatsmore, doesn't seem to much care (particularly when contrasted with his obvious enthusiasm for armadillos exhibited a few scenes later.)

But while there are plenty of blows landed, I ultimately thought that Fahrenheit 9/11 would have been much more impressive if it had focused more closely on the facts and avoided the more obvious attempts at sentiment. For example, instead of examining in detail the clear civil liberties transgressions occurring at the Gitmo Gulag and elsewhere under the Patriot Act, or noting the discrepancies in its enforcement (no gun checks?) under Attorney General-cum-balladeer John Ashcroft, Moore spends too much time interviewing an aging weightlifter and various Fresno peace activists -- all of whom have run afoul of goofy anti-terrorist inquiries -- for laughs. Similarly, instead of talking about Dubya's spiking of the Nunn-Lugar act or his continued cutting of First Responder funding, the film dinks around Western Oregon with two underfunded deputies - as a result, I thought the larger point about Bush's failure to protect the homeland was lost.

As the film moves overseas, the problems with F911 become more evident. Regarding the war in Afghanistan, Moore talks about a proposed UNOCAL pipeline to the exclusion of virtually anything else, which I think invites charges of shrillness (Exhibit A: The Bonanza riff) and blurs one of the most serious charges against this administration - that it gave up a chance to catch Osama Bin Laden in order to play regime change in Iraq. Speaking of Baghdad, I think Moore would have done better to talk more about missing WMD and lies to the UN and spent less time with Lila Lipscomb, the mother of a deceased US soldier. This last section of the film is undeniably powerful, but it also feels extremely manipulative, particularly as it's hard to envision very many situations where a mother's grief wouldn't be harrowing to behold. (The same goes for the grisly scenes of charred bodies and horrifically wounded Iraqi children.)

Still, what do I know? Perhaps Fahrenheit 9/11 needs these human touches to get its point across to a larger audience, a goal which it so far seems to be accomplishing with great aplomb. The fact is, Michael Moore can undoubtedly be a blowhard with grating populist pretensions, but if we had any semblance of a functioning national media these days, Fahrenheit 9/11 would have been a non-event. In the absence of anything like an independently critical television press, and given the existence of such a well-oiled, well-funded right-wing propaganda machine these days, perhaps somebody out there had to co-opt conservative talk-radio techniques to get the message out. I'm more of a "destroy the ring" than a "use the ring" kinda guy, but, as I said, what do I know? I could write in this space a hundred times over and still never reach an infinitesimal fraction of the people who will see this film and be newly angered by the idiotic and unethical behavior of this administration.

In short, if a picture is worth a 1000 words, this film is worth 10,000 blogs - by stringing so many of the Bush-bashing beads together in such entertaining and moving fashion, Fahrenheit 9/11 should bring the heart of the anti-Dubya critique right to the Heartland. I just wish it had covered its flank a little better by sticking to the cold, hard facts about the national embarrassment of historic proportions that is George W. Bush, rather than indulging every so often in cheap laughs and reflexive sentiment.

Surprise of surprises, former North Carolina Senator Jesse Helms (no, not yet) comes out against Dubya's tax cuts for the wealthy.

Cheney drops an F-bomb in the Senate and likes it (naturally, the GOP moral arbiters don't care, despite their tsk-tsking Kerry after an earlier outburst.) Meanwhile Dubya loses his temper on Irish TV when asked relatively basic questions about the failures of his Iraq policy. Yes, folks, these people are in charge.

"Editors: Can you show us your cards? Cheney: Sure. One of them's a six." By way of Value Judgment, experience the tribulations of poker with Dick Cheney. "Cheney: We will show you our cards after we have collected the pot. It is important that things be done in this order, otherwise the foundation of our entire poker game will be destroyed." Update: In semi-related news, the Supreme Court bails out Cheney 7-2 on the energy task force documents, although they also decided to punt the case back to a lower court. Hmmm.

Dubya jumps in the polls after Reagan's photo-op funeral, and decides to celebrate by lying about Iraq and 9/11 all over again. C'mon, y'all Republican moralists out there...Where's the outrage? Clinton was impeached for far less, and we already know the Baptists won't put up much of a fuss.

The 9/11 commission concludes that Iraq had nothing to do with Al Qaeda and the planning of the September 11 attacks. Wow, are you serious? Who knew?

"Never in the two and a quarter centuries of our history has the United States been so isolated among the nations, so broadly feared and distrusted." A bipartisan group of 26 diplomats and military men call out Dubya Diplomacy for causing irreparable harm to the republic, and the statement is heady stuff. "The Bush Administration has shown that it does not grasp these circumstances of the new era, and is not able to rise to the responsibilities of world leadership in either style or substance. It is time for a change."

"'Bill Clinton could always see a better day ahead and Americans knew he was working hard to bring that day closer,' Bush said. 'Over eight years it was clear that Bill Clinton loved the job of the presidency. He filled this house with energy and joy. He's a man of enthusiasm and warmth, who could make a compelling case and effectively advance the causes that drew him to public service.'" At the unveiling of the Clinton presidential portraits, Bush effusively praises his predecessor. Very nice of ya, Dubya, but you're still not getting my Bud Light...or my vote. Nor do I expect such flattery to defang Clinton on his forthcoming book tour.

Meanwhile, Dubya has less to say about a sweetheart corporate tax package being pushed through Congress by the GOP, one that offers ridiculous handouts to various Republican-leaning business special interests. "[W]hat started as an effort to repeal a $5 billion-a-year subsidy has grown into one of the most significant corporate tax measures in years. The Senate bill, 980 pages long, includes more than $167 billion in business tax cuts over 10 years, handing out favors to NASCAR racetracks, foreign dog-race gamblers, Oldsmobile dealers and bow-and-arrow makers, to name a few." Hmmm...might be time to invest in bow-and-arrow futures. Update: The bill passes the House.

While authorization for attack dog intimidation techniques implicate intelligence higher-ups in the horrors of Abu Ghraib, Bush gets legalistic to (not) explain the pro-torture policies emanating from his administration. Hmmm. I bet the White House is wishing Reagan could die every week right now.

John Kerry pulls ahead by 11 over Dubya nationwide (although it's only 6 if you throw in Nader, and the math gets more dicey in swing states.) Still, once Reagan Week draws to a close, Dubya and his neocon minions will have nowhere to hide.

I missed most of the recent discoveries about Dubya's pro-torture policy changes during my cable outage, but Value Judgment has birddogged a nice Washington Post editorial that sums up the story so far. "There is no justification, legal or moral, for the judgments made by Mr. Bush's political appointees at the Justice and Defense departments. Theirs is the logic of criminal regimes, of dictatorships around the world that sanction torture on grounds of 'national security.'"

Well, between Tenet's resignation and Reagan's end, my cable modem picked an eventful few days to give up on me. More to come next week, after the Time Warner technicians have ascertained and corrected the problem.

In a speech before graduates of the Air Force Academy, Dubya compares the war on terror to WWII. And, a day after being called out by Dana Milbank for his straw men, Bush is at it again: "Some who call themselves realists question whether the spread of democracy in the Middle East should be any concern of ours." Is that really the central argument being made by those dubious of our foray into Iraq? I don't think so.

Democratic House candidate Stephanie Herseth wins in GOP-leaning South Dakota, and the Dems' prospects in the South brighten. How much do you want to bet Karl Rove is pushing hard right now for a refocus on catching Osama before November?

Typical. Despite being oversight-crazy during the Clinton era, the Congressional GOP refuses to hold hearings about the "smoking gun" e-mail connecting Cheney's office to a sweetheart Halliburton deal in Iraq. (And, as with the energy probe, Cheney's office is stonewalling.) Good lord, what shadiness...is there no level below which these guys won't stoop? Once again, the Bush administration and its Congressional cronies have proved themselves a national embarrassment of historic proportions.

Well, it's a well-run campaign, midget'n broom'n whatnot. The Washington Post scrutinizes the Bush campaign's continued resort to misleading attacks and outright lies when discussing Kerry's record. And, in related news, Dana Milbank (one of the co-writers of the article above), surveys Dubya's penchant for bashing straw men. "Bush is obviously not the first politician to paint his opponents' positions in absurd terms...But Bush has been more active than most in creating phantom opponents...[and]There seems to be no end to the crazy positions the straw men take."

By way of Value Judgment, Alexandra Polier -- the woman whom Drudge et al earlier claimed had an affair with John Kerry -- digs into the unsavory origins of her own non-story. The first half of the article is basically a recap of her situation and her actual connection to Kerry, but the second half -- when she begins interrogating the journalists who breathlessly created this media scandal out of whole cloth -- is quite interesting.

In the wake of Dubya's free-falling popularity, are the House Dems poised to reverse the 1994 GOP takeover? One can only hope.

Be afraid. Be very afraid. And don't say we didn't warn you. Nothing changes an undesirable news cycle quite like another terror threat, does it? As the AP article notes: "The sudden warning returns the nation's attention to terrorism, the issue that President Bush has highlighted as a central theme of his re-election campaign, after intense focus on other subjects like Iraq and prisoner abuses in Iraq. Bush has lost ground in the polls, falling in approval ratings to the lowest point of his presidency."

To be fair, releasing pics of the possible suspects is probably more helpful in preventing a future attack than the usual exhortations to buy duct tape. And nobody want to see another 9/11, particularly those of us who live in NYC. Still, the very fact that news articles have to concede that Dubya may just be pushing the Panic button for political points proves how untrustworthy this president has become. And don't you love how Bush officials keep suggesting that Al Qaeda wants to "have some impact on the electoral process," as if voting Democratic means the terrorists have won? Sorry, but you'll have to count me among the many Americans who thinks that terrorists have more to fear from John Kerry than they ever would from Dubya's haphazard and crony-driven homeland security agenda.

"On a scale of 1 to 10, Democrats abused their majority status at about a level 5 or 6,"[conservative think tank AEI's Norman] Ornstein observed. "Republicans today have moved it to about an 11." Salon delves into the growing rift between Tom De Lay and Dick Armey over conservative politics and principles. Hmmm...Mordor orcs or Isengard orcs, take your pick.

So apparently Dubya handles a bike about as well as he handles a Segway (or the nation)...poorly. Well, at least one benefit of this nasty scrape for the viewing public is that, when Bush addresses the nation on Iraq tonight, you'll literally get to see the blood on his hands.

wake up with fleas. The US raided the compound of Ahmed Chalabi this morning, who up until this week was receiving $340,000 a month in taxpayer funds for spouting exactly the lies the Bushies wanted most to hear. In fact, Chalabi has been the Dubya gang's favorite Iraqi for years now, but "U.S. disenchantment with Chalabi has been growing since it dawned on the White House and the Pentagon that everything he had told them about Iraq -- from Saddam Hussein's fiendish weapons arsenal to the crowds who would toss flowers at the invaders to Chalabi's own popularity in Iraq -- had been completely false." Is Wolfowitz's house next?

By way of my friend Mark, The Atlantic Monthly delves into the sordid world of oppo research, including the role notorious Gore/Clark flunky Chris Lehane played in taking down Howard Dean, and the early Republican line on John Kerry.

As Dubya tries to rally the worried Republican troops, Speaker Hastert questions John McCain's GOP cred. Hey, if you don't want him, we'll take him. Didn't you guys learn anything from the Jim Jeffords defection?

"The problem is not that George W. Bush is discussing policy with people who press right-wing solutions to achieve peace in the Middle East, or with devout Christians. It is that he is discussing policy with Christians who might not care about peace at all - at least until the rapture." Rick Perlstein uncovers the Bush administration's recent meetings with Apocalyptic Christian zealots to discuss shifts in Israel policy.

So the word emerging from Cannes on Michael Moore's Fahrenheit 9/11 is very positive so far. I'm very curious to see what kind of reaction this film will get stateside, once the distribution situation has been resolved. Hopefully, it'll end up doing more than just preaching to the converted in arthouses across America, as it sounds like it has the potential to be very big.

At a recent Teamster's rally, Kerry is pressed to choose Gephardt as veep, and for the most part Kerry plays along, extolling the Missouri rep no less than four times. I dunno...I know Gephardt plays well in the crucial heartland, but he also reeks of Dem politics-as-usual. And, if the vaunted hidden strength of labor couldn't even place Gephardt in the top two in Iowa, I'm not sure why Kerry should be choosing his running mate with them as his first priority. (Second link via Value Judgment.)

With Rummy on the ropes, Dubya and Cheney rush to the defense of their man in Defense. Hey, hold him to your breast as long as possible, Mr. President...maybe then, you'll all go down together come November.

Pollster John Zogby believes Kerry will win in November. That's good to hear, and I'm inclined to believe him...but I also think that the issue that will define this election has yet to occur, for good or ill. Either way, Kerry's current press slump is nothing to write home about. There's always a dry spell for challengers between the end of the primaries and the choosing of the veep. Um, so who is going to be the veep, anyway?

"As the president says, we misunderestimate him. He was not born stupid. He chose stupidity. Bush may look like a well-meaning dolt. On consideration, he's something far more dangerous: a dedicated fool." Slate writer and collector of malapropisms Jacob Weisberg psychoanalyzes Dubya's mental deficiencies and finds that Bush is less simple-minded than he is just intellectually lazy...and the Daddy issues don't help.

Iraq increasingly a quagmire, deficits soaring, the economy in the tank...what Bush worry? As Rick Perlstein points out, it's easy for Dubya to remain preternaturally calm when he believes he's divinely ordained.

"Peace and freedom depend upon this election. Prosperity for the people depend upon this election." You know something, Dubya? You're darn skippy.

Dubya and Cheney work on getting their stories straight for tomorrow's joint appearance before the 9/11 committee. If the press machinery worked in this country, there is no way on God's Green Earth Bush would be allowed to bring along his compadre for help on this one, or that the two of them would be able to testify without any recorded transcription, particularly when you consider how President Clinton was treated during his Lewinsky testimony. Absolutely pathetic.

"Woodward reports that in July 2002 Bush ordered the use of $700 million to prepare for the invasion of Iraq, funds that had not been specifically appropriated by the Congress, which alone holds that constitutional authority. No adequate explanation has been offered for what, strictly speaking, might well be an impeachable offense." Sidney Blumenthal sees the behavior underlying Reagan's Iran-Contra fiasco revived, while law professor Cass Sunstein delves deeper into the illegality and unconstitutionality of Dubya's likely misappropriation of funds.

Once again, it seems, the Bush administration is falsifying records to cover up their shadiness. This time, the Pentagon deleted key remarks made by Rumsfeld to Bob Woodward on the certainty of the Iraq war. (Regarding an invasion of Iraq, Rummy told the Saudis in Jan. 2003, two months before operations commenced, that they could "take that to the bank.") Given the other times the Bushies have been caught doing this, their withholding of Reagan and Bush Sr. papers, and the general moral turpitude of this administration, one has to wonder how snarled up the historical record is at this point.

Clandestine oil deals with the Saudis, secret (and quite probably) illegal misappropriation of anti-terrorism funds, Bob Woodward's confirmation that Richard Clarke was right despite the Bushies' smear machine...no matter how you cut it, the news coming out of the White House these days looks grimmer and grimmer. Now Dubya is actually running on the Patriot Act, of all things, and yet his poll numbers are rising?! I'm going to chalk up this latest bounce to sheer GOP cash flow (a funding discrepancy soon to change) and the post-primary press lull for Kerry. But, still, I find it hard to believe that anybody of an independent disposition can look at what's going on in Washington these days and in good conscience vote for Dubya. This joker can't handle the 9/11 commission without Cheney by his side, and he can't even face the national press without begging to see the questions in advance. Why on Earth would anyone think this fool should stay in office? Inept and corrupt, Bush is easily the worst president America has seen since Warren G. Harding. In fact, he's probably worse. Where's the outrage?


Dubya and his cronies have coasted on the "soft bigotry of low expectations" long enough...let's vote out these guys, already.

Sorry 24 and American Idol fans...Dubya takes over the airwaves tonight to "reassure" us about Iraq, and perhaps explain why he spent the day he was warned about Al Qaeda attacks just goofing off at the ranch. Hmm...I wonder if he'll only answer press questions in the presence of Cheney...after all, the Prisoner's Dilemma still holds.

I haven't spoken much about it here, but obviously the situation in Iraq is getting much, much worse. I think it's now safe to assume that our war president's June 30 pullout date is an election-year fantasy. Who the hell's running this half-assed outfit? You'd think that after getting us involved in this unnecessary sideshow of a war, Bush and the neocons would at least have the decency to execute it properly. But, no, they're still prattling on about a peaceful transfer of power and hoping we ignore the unmistakable signs of an incipient civil war, and all the while the US casualties mount. What's the plan? (War prez link via Medley.)

Goodbye, ethnic enclaves. Hello, partisan provinces. Delving deeper into the red state/blue state meme, Slate's Tim Noah discovers that the partisan divide now extends to red and blue counties. Apparently, "geographic segregation by major-party affiliation at the county level [has] increased by 47 percent" since 1976.

"There was always something of the boy in the bubble about George W. Bush, cosseted from the vicissitudes of life, from Vietnam to business failure, by his famous name....Now we're told the military is preparing an "overwhelming" retaliation to the carnage in Falluja. You can hear the clammy blast from the past: We're going to destroy that village to save it." Maureen Dowd ruminates on recent events in Iraq...and the Bush administration's failure to recognize their gravity.

Describing his candidacy as a "second front against Bush, however small," Nader schedules a pow-wow with John Kerry next month to discuss the best way of defeating Dubya. See, fellow Dems? He's on our team.

Hmm...I've been so busy this week that I've completely missed out on the Clarke 9/11 testimony, but it sounds like he's not only fighting mad at the Bushies for their Iraq sideshow and failures on the terrorism front, he's deflecting their usual smear tactics quite swimmingly. Good stuff.

Hey did you hear the one about Dubya looking under a chair and asking, "Those weapons of mass destruction have got to be somewhere?" Chuckle, chuckle. Yeah, well I can think of almost 600 Americans (to say nothing of their families) that don't find Dubya's snickering all that goddamn funny. The Prez hasn't been in such lousy taste since the day he scampered across the WTC rubble playing fratboy with a bullhorn.

Did the awful 3/11 train bombing decide the recent Spanish election? Not so fast. My friend Luke of Expats against Bush happened to be visiting Barcelona during the recent attack, and his experience conforms closely with this Post article. Namely, it was Aznar's lousy spin job as much as the bombing which decided the election. And, let's be real -- Given that 90% of Spain was against continued involvement in the Iraq war prior to the attack, it's not as if the new government is coming out of nowhere with its decision to withdraw Spanish troops. Obviously, this act of terror didn't help matters for the Popular Party, but the foundation of this decision by the electorate was paved long before by George W. Bush's amateurish diplomacy. Instead of seeing common cause with our nation after a horrible terrorist attack, the Spanish people have been more repelled by Dubya's preemptive sideshow and his continued insults to international intelligence. At this point, if Bush really wants to figure out which world leaders would prefer John Kerry, all he has to do is look around.

Come on aboard, join hands, start a love train...All seems swell with Kerry and Dean as the two most heated rivals of the nomination contest ponder the general election together. Yeeagh!

Well, that didn't take long. In his first major ad wave, Dubya touts the endorsement of the WTC, to the anger and consternation of the families of 9/11 victims. Trust me, it's gonna get worse before it gets better: If it helps get him elected, Dubya and his ilk will be bathing in the blood of the fallen by the end.

So, to no one's real surprise over these past few weeks, our horse is John Kerry. Ok, then, let's bring it on (and let the veep sweepstakes begin.) I'm sure it'll be a tight race before it's over, but for the moment, even the House GOP is thinking Kerry these days.

As the Senate GOP tries to schedule embarrassing votes for Johns Kerry and Edwards, Richard Rosendall of Salon remembers the last election cycle the GOP invoked the culture wars so heavily: 1992. Thanks again, Pat Buchanan.

Super Tuesday has arrived, and many pundits are predicting it to be the last stand of John Edwards, who's got mathematical problems even if he should upset in a few states tonight. Nevertheless, I voted for Edwards this morning (although the machine I used was so Third World that I have to wonder if my vote'll get counted), not because I prefer him all that much to Kerry in the end -- I think either will make a fine candidate this year -- but more because (a) he bothered to show up here twice, and (b) with his personal charm and rhetorical focus on poverty, I believe he has a bright future in the Democratic party. If my vote can help suggest that he has a following outside the South, good for it. All that being said, I'm happy with Kerry too, and he can expect my vote in November, if (ok, when) he proves to be the Dem nominee.

The Senate Intelligence Committee moves toward subpoenaing Bush for various documents regarding the lead-up to war, documents which the administration has tried to withhold on the grounds of executive privilege. Hmm, I wonder...will the shrill echoes of Dubya's gay-baiting be enough to mask the whirring of the shredders? Somehow, I doubt it.

"[Gollum] never hesitates to exploit a wedge issue, be it Frodo's trust of Sam or the distribution of lembas bread, and is savage in combat until defeated, at which point he whines endlessly about how unfair it all is." Salon ruminates on the current political applicability of Lord of the Rings, and notes how John Rhys-Davies, decrying the threat of Muslim civilization, is all the rage on the conservative circuit right now. Tsk, tsk, what would Sallah say?

This won't be news to most people out there, but nevertheless: The Bush White House has been lying about job creation for awhile now. "Over three years, the administration has repeatedly and significantly overstated the government's fiscal health and the number of jobs the economy would create," reports Dana Milbank of the Washington Post. Surprise, surprise, surprise.

So, in an attempt to appease the stark raving Right, Dubya now wants a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage. Good God, what a colossally stupid idea. Since when did it become "conservative" to encode goofy prejudices into our founding document? And can someone please explain to me what jurisdiction the federal government has over the ecclesiastical institution of marriage anyway? Ridicky-goddamn-diculous. Surely Bush and Rove can find some other way to get out their base besides threatening to tinker with the United States Constitution.

To the consternation of many Dems, Ralph Nader rides again in 2004 (although he's assuredly going to have an even harder time of it without the Greens.) Hey, power to him. To be honest, I don't really see him having much of an effect this cycle, other than that he'll provide a steady stream of free anti-Bush invective that the press corps will be forced to cover.

The Bush team start prepping their anti-Kerry ads, and, fortunately for the Dems, they're still living in Fantasyland. "If they run ads about [the Vietnam era], they will probably focus on Kerry's high-profile opposition to the Vietnam War and comments about U.S. atrocities that could neutralize his record as a decorated veteran." Um, yeah, 'cause veterans are usually all for atrocities. Still, even amid all the wishful thinking, Dubya's reps do allow themselves a moment of clarity: "Acknowledging that Bush has received major financial support from corporations, McKinnon said: 'The issue is hypocrisy in saying you're going to take on the special interests, not who took the most special interest money. You don't hear the president in the Oval Office railing against the special interests.'" Well, that's true, you don't, but that fact hardly makes for a compelling campaign ad.

As it turns out, I was able to make it to the John Edwards event on campus this morning, and, all in all, I'd give him a B+. He both read and rushed through the first half of his remarks, which involved some new formulation of his trade policy (more on that in a second), and I found his opening lines particularly ham-handed and speechwriterly. "I know y'all have been waiting for a Son of the South to come to NYC...A-Rod," he said (and I'm paraphrasing.) "Well, I'm not A-Rod, but Wisconsin proved one thing: I can close!" Um, ok, but A-Rod is a shortstop and all, not a closer.

Anyway, nitpicking aside, Edwards improved measurably once he put the paper down and got into the rhythm of his "Two Americas" stump speech, which he'd clearly delivered many times. There were moments, however, when he definitely could have embellished his standard schtick, given the crowd. Edwards talked about how he was a lonely, legal David often going up and winning cases against a Goliath-sized team of corporate lawyers, a biographical stat which probably plays great in the Heartland. It went flat here, though, perhaps because the many law students in the auditorium seemed confused by his remarks: But we want to be those well-paid corporate shills!

Still, Edwards came off extremely polished and personable, and he definitely got the crowd on his side, even when he was blindsided by a sneak "Campaign on AIDS!" protest on the dais behind him. Several members of the VIP crowd unveiled red-ribbon shirts and began chanting right in the middle of his biographical portion (In fact, I could've sworn it was right after he gave the "son of a millworker" line, which was a clever signal to choose, if nothing else.) Edwards gave them a moment, asked the crowd to applaud the "activism of these young people," calmly told a heckler he'd address their point after finishing his bio, and then said a few positive words about fighting AIDS at home and abroad (A critical world issue to be sure, but not a particularly controversial one in this day and age...c'mon, y'all, this isn't 1988. And why try to derail a candidate who is politically sympathetic to your cause, particularly when Karl Rove is across town?) At any rate, no harm no foul for Team Edwards: He navigated this potentially rocky shoal extremely successfully, although I presume some advance guy or gal was given the serious what-for soon thereafter.

As for the trade stuff, I liked where he was going at first, but he eventually seem to fall back on the fair trade side of the usual dichotomy. As I see it, the problem isn't free trade itself per se as much as the loss of American jobs, as well as the ugly spectacle of corporations firing tons of US workers only to turn right around and offer up a fat dividend. Edwards obliquely mentioned this formulation, then fell back on tax breaks for "good" corporations and the trouble with NAFTA. My feeling is, if you want to stop this kind of behavior, there needs to be more stick and less carrot. Hit business where it hurts: Tax the heck out of (or even, God forbid, disallow) corporate dividends that occur in the same fiscal year as the downsizing of X number of American jobs. Simply put, if you can't afford to pay your workers anymore, you damn well shouldn't be paying dividends to stockholders. Edwards came close to saying thus, but then fell back into the old free trade/fair trade rut, which to my mind is a bit like shouting into the wind. If you want to change corporate behavior, focus on corporate behavior...don't blame the increasingly irreversible trend of globalization.

At any rate, all in all Edwards came off quite well, although not as inspiring or Clintonesque as I would've originally liked. He's definitely got a great future in the party and in American politics, and he'd no doubt make a solid contender in this election season against the likes of Dubya (or Dick Cheney.)

The good news: The Dems are up big on Bush (Kerry by 12, Edwards by 10). The bad news: A Zogby poll suggests there's been no movement in the red state/blue state dichotomy quite yet. Hmm...this Zogby poll would be more interesting if it gave state-by-state numbers.

Following up on a Franklin Foer TNR article I first saw over at Value Judgement, Hannah Rosin examines the plight of DC's Deaniacs now that the party's over. Although it wasn't nearly as well reported, I remember a similar purge happening after Bill Bradley went down last cycle, and, trust me, they can get ugly. (But, at least last time, all was forgiven after Al Gore screwed up the general.)

After a long, slow, and dismal post-Iowa slide (which, as Chris Suellentrop waggishly put it, wound up "with the leisurely pace of the interminable conclusion of The Return of the King"), Dr. Dean calls it quits, leaving basically a two-man field for the nomination. (Early scuttlebutt had Dean possibly endorsing Edwards, but, although Edwards sent the right signals, Dean instead asked his supporters, strangely enough, to vote his name despite his leaving the race.)

Well, I guess it'll probably take some time to put Dean's swift rise and swifter fall in perspective (Is this Goldwater, McCarthy, Muskie, or something altogether new?) To be honest, I was always a bit surprised by the furor surrounding Dean, given that he was neither as lefty nor as populist as many of his followers seemed to think. I know many found him inspiring, but, even after tentatively getting behind him, I never really saw it or felt it...in fact, quite the contrary. So, while it's always a bit disconcerting to see something that started so well end so badly, I'm can't say I'm overly aggrieved by this turn of events. As I said before, if the nominee is Kerry, so be it.

Of course, there's still the matter of John Edwards, whose surprise showing in Wisconsin definitely keeps him viable for at least one more round. Kerry's overwhelming lead aside, I've been quite enthused by the rise of Edwards since Iowa, who seems like the type of fresh and viable new face the Democratic Party's been needing for some time. Whether or not he has a chance of coming back to win it all this year, I'm inclined to vote for him, if only to show he's got some legs outside the South. At any rate, he'll be speaking on campus early this morning so, if all goes well, I may get a chance to see how he comes off in person.

With the nomination basically sealed up, Team Kerry (and the White House) now turn their attention to the red state/blue state calculus of the general election. So far, the talk is basically what you'd expect: "Bush advisers hope to keep Kerry pinned down trying to hold on to states that former vice president Al Gore narrowly won in 2000 -- Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, New Mexico, Pennsylvania and Michigan among them...[On the other hand,] Bush also will have to fight hard to win some of his red states that have suffered economically. 'Bush has got to thread the needle,' said a GOP strategist in one of the battleground states. 'He won several states by a very small margin. Look at Ohio, Florida, Missouri, West Virginia, New Hampshire. I just think it's a tough sled.'" And, in related news, The Atlantic's Josh Green evaluates the swing regions in 2004.

In honor of President's Day (and by way of LinkMachineGo and WebGoddess), it's every politically-minded fanboy's favorite party game, Bush or Palpatine? Their overconfidence is their weakness.

As Kerry readies for the big fight ahead, the GOP starts getting real ugly, with doctored Hanoi Jane photos and Drudge-inspired, Murdoch-driven tales of a possible extra-marital dalliance. Yep, the GOP sure loves them the adultery card, but I don't think that dog will hunt this time around...not after the impeachment fiasco. Update: The accused woman says drop it, already, and Drudge -- without apologizing for slandering her or Kerry -- changes his tune about the alleged affair.

On the flip side of the card, Dubya's Document Dump answers few questions about his guard duty, and reports are now surfacing of National Guard documents destroyed by Governor Bush's people in 1997. And then, of course, there's the matter of that skipped drug test...

After John Kerry's two dominant wins in the South, General Clark calls it quits. Ho-hum. Good news for Edwards in the short term, I guess, although it now appears that Dean will stay in the race after Wisconsin, despite the loss of AFCSME and the wavering of Harkin. Well, keeping Dems at the front of the news for a few more weeks can't hurt the larger goal, but Dean's revived bashing of "Washington insiders" sounds increasingly hollow and desperate to me. They weren't a problem when "Boss" Gore came a-runnin' to the Dean camp, now, were they? As for Kerry being the "lesser of two evils," I just don't think Howard Dean would improve that equation all that much.

Via Genehack, Calpundit delves into the documents of Dubya's desertion.

Unfortunately, I missed Dubya's flailing about on Russert Sunday morning, so I can't really venture an opinion about how that went. (The rightniks seem dour about it.) But Salon has put up an interesting presidential popularity chart, which shows that Dubya's approval rating has only spiked thrice: 9/11, the Iraq War, and Saddam's capture. Makes you wonder if Karl Rove is on the phone with Pakistan this very moment.

Rick Perlstein surveys the critical contributions -- and ultimate failing -- of Howard Dean.

Seven states across the nation up for grabs last night, and five go to John Kerry. On the flip side, Joe Lieberman finally faced the music and bowed out of the race (So much for that "three-way tie" in NH.)

Well, call me an establishment sellout, but I'm close to putting this one in the fridge. I was glad to see Edwards take my and his home big, but I think Clark's ekeing out of Oklahoma will hurt Carolina's Finest on the momentum front. (That being said, Edwards is looking like a grand Veep.) And Dean, well, his 0-7 strategy was a gamble anyway, but I personally don't believe he's hitting the right notes to make a comeback anymore. Kerry a Republican? That's just plain goofy. I'm all for running on campaign finance reform, of course, and I agree with Mark Shields that Dean's made an enormous contribution in that regard...but I think spinning the "outsider" rhetoric just for the sake of it is lame. (Might as well say "Vote for me! I won't know what the hell I'm doing for the first two years of my administration!") Besides, it's hard to run as the outsider who'll change the insidious culture of Washington once you've nestled the likes of Al Gore to your breast. I'll still put up Gore's primary performance last cycle as an order of magnitude more shady than anything that's gone down this time around.

So, if Kerry's our horse, I'm ready to circle the wagons. He's already up ten on Bush according to Gallup. And, having just seen California freak-show Darrell Issa on late-night CNN frantically go the "Dukakis Dukakis Dukakis" route, I'd say we have a real chance to win this thing. Between this and the atrocious State of the Union, I'm starting to get the sense we've been grossly overestimating Karl Rove's political savvy. And, if the Big 47 holds up...it means trouble for the GOP that even Rehnquist, Scalia et al can't solve this time. Bring it on.

So...New Hampshire has spoken, and John Kerry wins by 12 over fellow New Englander Howard Dean, Clark and Edwards tie for a distant third, and Lieberman falls to fifth. The game now shifts to the South and Midwest, including South Carolina.

Well, while it's a bit off-putting to put this race in the fridge after only two states have spoken, I say it's now definitely looking to be John Kerry's year. That is, barring a strong showing by John Edwards on more favorable terrain, who has to win South Carolina convincingly next week to stay alive. As everyone's known for months, Lieberman is clearly done, despite his ridiculous talk of a three-way tie for third in NH. (So much for the vote-swinging ability of the New Republic.) Wesley Clark may be able to pick up Oklahoma, but momentum counts for a lot, and he was fading fast all last week. So, barring something crazy happening, I'd say the general is also on his way out.

And Dean? Well, obviously he's still got a large war chest and the frenzy of the Deaniacs to fall back on...but where does he go from here? The pre-NH polls have him dropping to fourth or fifth in every one of the polled February 3rd states, except New Mexico (and even that's based on pre-Iowa numbers.) It'd be one thing if he had pulled closer to Kerry in New Hampshire, or even to within ten points, but a twelve-point loss is pretty decisive in terms of being a momentum-killer. (Consider in 2000 that Bradley got to within four points (52%-48%) of Gore in NH, something that was also spun by the pundit class as a "still-kicking" comeback after Iowa, and he got hammered in all 15 states the Tuesday next.) As Chris Suellentrop notes, Dean's only hope may be to go "underground" for awhile, but it's hard to see how a hail-mary play like that will have generated much mojo once the big states actually vote. It's remarkable how Dean and Kerry switched places so quickly, but they did...and just as Kerry would be toast had he not won New Hampshire, the same now looks true for the governor of Vermont.

In the midst of the battle for New Hampshire, a glimmer of great news. A new Newsweek poll has Kerry up 3 on Dubya in a head-to-head match-up. And the key stat isn't Kerry, per se: All four major Dems poll well against the Prez (Clark down 1, Edwards down 3, Dean down 5.) No, what's cause for cheer here is the breakdown: 47% of voters strongly oppose a second term for Bush (and 52% say they don't want him back in general.) That's compared to 37% of voters strongly in the Bush camp. With those kind of strong negatives, much of Dubya's financial advantage is neutralized -- all the money in the world isn't going to change the minds of people who've already decided they hate you. And this means that, state-by-state electoral math notwithstanding, the Dems only have to sway 4% of the electorate between now and November, give or take a percentage point to account for more Florida-type shenanigans by the GOP.

Along those lines, the Republicans shift their attention to Kerry, while conservatives fret over their standard-bearer's right-wing cred. I'm sure y'all can get Pat Buchanan to run again...

Meanwhile, in NH news, the consistently insufferable Mickey Kaus points the way to Chrisishardcore, a young statistician who's teased out daily movement from the three-day ARG polls (this is the information the talking heads have when they make their predictions.) At any rate, yesterday's poll shows a bounce back for Dean, who looks to probably come in second by these numbers. Elsewhere, the Wyeth Wire, a SC political mail-list to which I subscribe, does the same thing for Carolina.

Still quite busy over here -- The megalithic history freelance project I mentioned here is finally drawing to a close, and orals reading is now consuming the bulk of my time. I know that portion of the site hasn't been updated lately, but I do plan to finish it, even if I have to post much of the content after my orals date, which should be sometime in the first two weeks of March.

In the meantime, I've also recently begun helping Bill Press finish up another book project, Bush Must Go. (We previously collaborated on Spin This! together in early 2001.) And, in keeping with the book's subtitle, Press has asked for "Top Ten" submissions, your Top Ten reasons why George W. Bush has to go down as a one-termer like Papa, over at the DNC Blog today. So, if you're feeling creative or have to get a particular Bush vent off your chest, leave your list over there. As he says, your ideas may very well be incorporated into the book.

The Dems held one more for the road last night in New Hampshire and, given that a rather bland Kerry didn't stumble, it's starting to look dire for Dean, who was subdued and chagrined most of the evening and only now seems to be turning the corner on his Muskie Moment. Edwards did reasonably well despite invoking states' rights (which never sounds good with a southern accent) to support his convoluted gay marriage position. And I actually liked Clark better than usual, and thought he handled his recent party switch as well as he could.

But, I have to say, I was extraordinarily irritated by the way the whole Dubya Deserter thing played out last night. First Peter Jennings tells Wesley Clark that Michael Moore's deserter comment was "a reckless charge not supported by the facts" and asks him if it'd have been "a better example of ethical behavior" to contradict him. Clark doesn't go either way on it, claiming not to know all the facts. (Which is lame -- What's the point of having a General in the running if he's not going to call out Bush on exactly this question?) Then, once the show's over, Fox News pulls out Team Bespectacled White Guys (Mort Kondracke and Fred Barnes), who both immediately argue that Clark irreparably damaged his candidacy by not refuting this baseless charge, yadda yadda yadda.

Um, am I missing something? It's been substantiated quite well that Bush seems to have gone AWOL by the Boston Globe and others, and I'm not talking about the six or seven critical hours on September 11 when he was toodling around above the Heartland. While absence of evidence isn't necessarily evidence of absence, Dubya seems to have disappeared from the Air National Guard for almost a year between 1972-73, conveniently right before a drug test (an offense for which he was grounded), and, to this day, he has never satisfactorily explained where he was. (In fact, as the Straight Dope notes, later reports in The New Republic (by Ryan Lizza, if I remember correctly) even cast doubt on the half-hearted "some recollection" explanation Dubya gave during the 2000 campaign. (By the way, this all happened several years after Bush scored in the underwhelming 25th percentile on the pilot's aptitude portion of the entrance exam, thus having to rely on his congressman-daddy's connections to jump the year-long waiting list for the Air National Guard in the first place.)

Does all of this prove beyond the shadow of a doubt that Dubya pulled a Cold Mountain? Well, no, but it's definitely enough to suggest that Bush has some serious explaining to do. (And he revoked any "youthful indiscretion" type-defense when he began parading around in flight gear on the USS Lincoln.) So, I mean, c'mon, now, a baseless charge about Bush? At this point it seems more correct to say that the bases were "Bush-less." Next thing you'll know Fox News will be screaming at John Kerry for perpetuating the "vicious rumor" of Dubya's DUI.



At any rate, regarding other matters, I didn't see Diane Sawyer or Letterman last night so can't ascertain how Dean damage control went there, but I did catch the Dallas-Laker game on TNT, and during Inside the NBA EJ, Kenny and Charles must have played the Dean Scream about thirty times...in fact Ernie had it connected to his desk button. "Nash kicks to Dirk, Dirk from the corner...YEEEEEAAAAGH! Sacramento's up big in the third...YEEEEEAAAGH!" And so on, so on. Pretty much the first political content I've ever seen on the show, and, yeah, it was funny every time. Poor Dean.

As a revitalized John Kerry gains traction in New Hampshire and John Edwards shores up the South, Howard Dean plays subdued while his supporters ponder the state of the movement. Update: The Iowa bounce bounces...Kerry's up 10.

In case you missed the State of the Union address last night, this cartoon anticipated the upshot: terror, terror, terror, 9/11, 9/11, fear, fear, fear, steroids, thank you, good night, and God bless the USA. It's wonder they didn't pass out little bloody shirts for the Congressional GOP to wave in unison. Well, while this New York Times news analysis of the speech sounds like it was written by the Bush campaign (he "quickly turned" to domestic issues? What is Todd Purdum talking about? Dubya was blathering on about scary, scary terrorists for at least 40 minutes), I gotta think that this speech might've played badly to any voters out there concerned about the economy, and this year as always, it's still the economy, stupid.

So how do you like them apples? John Kerry comes up big in Iowa (38%), John Edwards places a very viable second (32%)...and the once seemingly-insurmountable Howard Dean falls to a distant third (18%). (For his part, a broken-hearted Gephardt came in fourth (11%) and will drop out tomorrow...so much for Big Union.)


An interesting evening, all in all, and one that's in effect limited the Democratic race from eight to four:

First off, I think Howard Dean added insult to injury tonight with his cringeworthy (non-)concession speech -- that hoarse, high-pitched yelp at the end of his angry roll of states is going to be played-for-laughs by the punditocracy hundreds of times this week (In fact, it took all of two hours for Drudge to post it as his headline...it's since been removed.) It was a display that could seriously hurt him among undecideds who've never really seen the guy before. That being said, the prognosis for the doctor isn't necessarily terrible, if he can weather the initial post-Iowa dip. For one, the rise of Kerry and Edwards is going to seriously complicate the anti-Dean question: Both Kerry and Clark will now be vying for veterans, as Clark and Edwards fight over who's the electable southerner. And Dean's still got the money and the movement, which isn't going to just wither away because of a bad night in Des Moines. That being said, Dean's in for a race now, and if that's the case, I for one am pleased that the candidates pushing him are as of tonight more likely to be John Edwards and John Kerry than they are Wesley Clark, Joe Lieberman, or the now-defunct Dick Gephardt.

John Edwards is a candidate I've been looking to see more from this whole cycle, and, if a long primary haul is our party's fate, I'm very glad he'll get a chance to strut his stuff on the main stage. He's got real populist cred and a trial lawyer's argumentative savvy, and, well, the Southern accent doesn't hurt. He definitely looked the best tonight in terms of tone and message. And I think that, not unlike our current president, he's often "misunderestimated." Go Edwards.

I've been relatively agnostic about John Kerry for awhile (in part because he stumped so blatantly for Gore over Bradley last primary cycle), but I've liked him more recently since he lost Chris Lehane and started loosening up. Despite the fears of Dukakis-redux, I think Kerry could make a very strong candidate in the general, given his (perhaps too-overtouted of late) military record and debating skills. If he carries this bounce to a Democratic victory, I won't be overly disappointed.

As for Wesley Clark...well, let's just say the bloom is off the rose in these parts. Running a Lehane-style campaign isn't helping him, but the real problem is, well, he's not a Democrat. He voted for Nixon, Ford, Reagan, Reagan, and Bush, he's been a member of the party for less than a year, and he's on tape praising the Dubya administration at a GOP fundraiser. I really don't think the Democratic Party should be getting behind a fellow who's said "I'm very glad we've got the great team in office, men like Colin Powell, Don Rumsfeld, Dick Cheney, Condoleezza Rice, Paul O'Neill -- people I know very well -- our President George W. Bush. We need them there, because we've got some tough challenges ahead in Europe." Because, y'know, that particular soundbite would singlehandedly throw the election to Dubya, and we need to make Karl Rove spend at least some of his massive war chest on formulating his own advertisements.

So Clark, Dean, Edwards, and Kerry...the board is set, the pieces are moving.

Just when you think it's over, Iowa gets crazy, with no less than four candidates -- Dean, Gephardt, Kerry, and Edwards -- all in a statistical dead heat. Hmmm. While I'm still hoping Dean can nip a protracted primary fight in the bud right here (particularly given the huge GOP bankroll), I'm also glad to see John Edwards entering the top tier of candidates. At any rate, it looks like it'll all come down to get-out-the-vote on the big day, which should help Dean, who's got the fervor, and Gephardt, who's got the unions and a sixteen-year-old organization.

Carol Moseley Braun calls it quits, and will be endorsing Dean later today. That was very nice of her to do so before Iowa, and thus give the Doctor the benefit of a friendly press cycle before the first big contest. And, what with Jimmy Carter taking up a day too, that'll make it even harder for the other candidates to gain traction in the media in the last four days. So...who's next? Kucinich, I suspect...although it'd be nice if Lieberman saw the writing on the wall.

Building on the recent revelation by Bush Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill that the administration started planning a war in Iraq immediately upon taking office -- a revelation that dovetailed all-too-well with the recent Carnegie Endowment report on the administration's WMD deceptions -- Senator Ted Kennedy puts the war in perspective. "President Bush said it all when a television reporter asked him whether Saddam actually had weapons of mass destruction, or whether there was only the possibility that he might acquire them. President Bush answered, 'So what's the difference?' The difference, Mr. President, is whether you go to war or not. No President of the United States should employ misguided ideology and distortion of the truth to take the nation to war. In doing so, the President broke the basic bond of trust between government and the people. If Congress and the American people knew the whole truth, America would never have gone to war." Quite a good speech and worth a read, if nothing else than because no less a right-wing freak show than Tom De Lay found it "sad" and "disgusting."


In related news, Rick Perlstein examines Dubya's electoral exit strategy: "George Bush is selling out Iraq. Gone are his hard-liners' dreams of setting up a peaceful, prosperous, and democratic republic, a light unto the Middle Eastern nations. The decision makers in the administration now realize these goals are unreachable. So they've set a new goal: to end the occupation by July 1, whether that occupation has accomplished anything valuable and lasting or not. Just declare victory and go home...Such is the mess this president seems willing to leave behind in order to save his campaign."

"I always knew that I would see the first man on the Moon," once quipped Jerry Pournelle. "I never dreamed
that I would see the last." Hopefully, we can now prove him wrong. Dubya officially announced his space plan in front of NASA's DC headquarters today, and the upshot is this: More scientists, less entertainers, a Research Lab in every city, and he's going to disband all the Spearmen and Pikemen still lying around so he can build the SS Planetary Party Lounge.

Ok, just joking...some of y'all out there might think that was funny. At any rate, the plan is the ISS by 2007, the CEV by 2014, the moon by 2015, and Mars thereafter. Say what you will about election year boondoggles, but I still think creating and funding long-term goals for NASA is a wise investment. (Besides, if you want to cry election-year boondoogle, you don't need to go any farther than Dubya's ridiculous $1.5 billion marriage-promotion plan.) NASA still has serious organizational and cultural flaws, sure, but I think it'll be better able to address them if there's at least some semblance of a "vision thing" to build on.

MoveOn.org chooses the winners of the "Bush in 30 Seconds" contest, and the top vote-getter is a surprisingly subdued piece on the effects of the deficit. (My friend Seth, who's commandeered Ad Report Card over at Slate, posted his take here.) Good choice, I'd say, although I do like the Animated Ad as well.

The editors of the New Republic agonize over the magazine's recent endorsement of Joe Lieberman. I'm glad to see my preferred writers over there are leading the charge against this dumb, dumb call.

Looking to bring on that slightly queasy feeling in the pit of your stomach? The Washington Post profiles conservative ideologue Grover Norquist as he and Pinky plan worldwide GOP domination once again.

While the Dem battle rages in Iowa (Dean's up 8), aides portray Dubya as "intimately engaged" in the 2004 campaign. Hmm...perhaps that's what he's thinking about during Cabinet meetings.

In a week of minor stumbles (among them caucus-dissing -- let's face it, the Iowa caucuses are dominated by special interests. Ethanol subsidies, anyone? -- and gubernatorial honoraria), Howard Dean pulls up another key endorsement in Tom Harkin. At this point, I'll just go ahead and say that I hope the good Doctor takes both Iowa and New Hampshire and ends all the primary shenanigans sooner rather than later. It's a safe bet to say that I like Howard Dean better than any of the other eight candidates, but that frankly isn't saying much, and particularly given how Edwards, Clark, and Kerry have all underperformed.

I'll be honest - I'm much less enthused by Dean than I was by Bradley last cycle. Dean has yet to make any policy proposals that I flat-out love, and I find him neither as progressive nor as inspiring as I'd like. In fact, more often than not, he kinda leaves me cold...But, of the nine, he's the witch-king, so to speak. His occasional grouchiness and glibness does concern me, but no more so than any of the other candidates' personality traits (And let's drop the "unelectable" stuff...c'mon, this country elected George W. Bush. Anyone's electable. Oh, wait a minute, we didn't.) In sum, Dean's run a great campaign to this point, he's got money and moxie to spare, and he clearly strikes a chord with many Democratic souls out there, so here's hoping the party coalesces around him before we bleed ourselves to death solely to satisfy the big dreams of also-rans and the bruised egos of the DLC.

Well, so much for that dream ticket: Clark says no way to serving as Dean's running mate. In happier news for the frontrunner, Bill Bradley is expected to endorse Dean tomorrow (by way of Value Judgment.) I've been wondering when Dollar Bill was going to emerge from hiding...frankly, I'm a bit disappointed he hasn't been more visible throughout this cycle. After all, barring something crazy happening in the next two weeks, the board is basically already set until Iowa...the only real question left is which candidate the anti-Deans will coalesce around, and most of 'em have sounded so desperate lately that even they seem to know it's over. Update: It's official.

With Iowa and New Hampshire seemingly for Dean, both the Doctor and his rivals continue to hone in on South Carolina as a make-or-break state. As I said earlier, SC is probably the last, best hope for a Clark, Edwards or Gephardt to establish themselves as the Southern anti-Dean. As for Lieberman and Kerry, barring a fantastic upset in New Hampshire, it seems to be all over for the both of them, as their increasingly scorched earth rhetoric attests.

The Dems lose another Senate Southerner with the impending retirement of John Breaux (D-LA). (He joins Edwards, Graham, Hollings, and Zell on the way out.) Dems have done decently well in Louisiana of late, but you have to think that this is ripe territory for a GOP pickup. And that's just trouble.

"Perhaps that's why former vice president Al Gore's endorsement of Dean last week felt so strange -- less like the traditional benediction of a fellow member of the party "club" than a senior executive welcoming the successful leveraged buyout specialist." Everett Ehrlich pens an intriguing article on Dean, Ronald Coase, and "virtual parties."

In a hole in the ground lived a Hussein...until today. (There's also a Gimli joke in here somewhere, but let's not be too flippant.) Any way you cut it, this is excellent news. By capturing Saddam, we've struck a considerable blow against the continuing Iraqi resistance (even if this capture won't faze many anti-American groups joining in the fight.) By capturing him alive, we've prevented his martyrdom. By turning him over to an international tribunal, we can now help bridge the widening gaps between the US and the world on Iraq. (And, for the Dems, it's better for Saddam to have been found now, eleven months before the election, than for a October surprise later down the road.) Of course we still haven't found anything to suggest our WMD casus belli was legitimate, but hopefully this capture will make the situation in Iraq much more stable and less deadly for our troops abroad. And, while it might be too much to ask, perhaps it will encourage the Bush administration to refocus on capturing America's public enemy #1, Osama Bin Laden, before they launch any more military sideshows.

"'He'd be like Jack Nicholson in A Few Good Men, 'the operative said. 'When he's being questioned, he gets redder and redder, like his head is exploding, and then he blurts out, "You can't handle the truth." Dean is just exactly like that. I see it written all over him.'" Dubya's minions prep for a race against Dean.

As the media parses the meaning of the Gore-Dean union, Dick Gephardt picks up a key endorsement from Jim Clyburn, former head of the Congressional Black Caucus (and the rep of my hometown, Florence, SC.) Hmmm...interesting. If Clyburn can deliver the votes and Gephardt comes up big in South Carolina, it could blunt a Southern Swing by either Clark or Edwards and definitively set up Gephardt as the Anti-Dean. Well, if it comes down to Gephardt or Dean, I'm easily for the latter. Update: Clark fights back with an endorsement by Andrew Young. Oh, and since I forgot to mention it before, Will Saletan is correct in noting that Ted Koppel was a total buffoon at the final Dem debate last night.

By a vote of 5-4 (Justice O'Connor the swing vote as expected), the Supreme Court upheld the McCain-Feingold soft-money ban today in McConnell v. FEC. Well, Scalia may call this a "sad day for the freedom of speech," but I for one think this is great, great news. "Money, like water, will always find an outlet," as the majority put it, but at least the highest Court in the land has now recognized the corrosive impact of unregulated loot on the political process. This decision will hopefully do much to disentangle the pernicious conflation of speech and money in Buckley v. Valeo, and set the stage for continued meaningful campaign finance reform in the years to come. While McConnell v. FEC doesn't eliminate the bad taste of Bush v. Gore, it is a huge step in the right direction by this Court.

Whoa. Word is Al Gore will endorse Howard Dean tomorrow. I must say, I'm quite surprised by this announcement, particularly given all the water Gephardt and Kerry carried for Al last election cycle (to say nothing of Joe Lieberman, of course.) I guess Gore has either decided the Dems need to rally around a candidate immediately, or he's recently experienced what alcoholics refer to as a moment of clarity. Either way, it's obviously now even harder to envision anyone else but Dean winning the nod, barring a nuclear gaffe by the good Doctor. Update: It's official.

The White House tsk-tsks John Kerry for the F-word. C'mon, now. Kerry's youth-targeted outburst in Rolling Stone undoubtedly has a whiff of Gore-like "let-your-hair-down" calculation/desperation about it, but let's not make a mountain out of a molehill here. We all know good and well that our presidents and political leaders have been swearing up a blue streak since time immemorial. (Richard "expletive deleted" Nixon is just the most notorious example.) And it wasn't all that long ago that George "Major League" Dubya and Big Time needed their own mouths washed out with soap. So let he who is without sin cast the first #$%@ stone.

General Clark digs into Dubya for his brazen boastfulness in Iraq earlier in the year. "You don't make policy by taunting the enemy. Only someone who hasn't seen war firsthand would ever say anything as fatuous as 'bring 'em on.'" A little late, sure, but he's still definitely on target. Meanwhile, with Dean up 30 in NH, it's gotten so bad in Kerryland lately that Slate's Mickey Kaus is sponsoring a withdrawal contest. Ouch. For their part, though, the Kerry team seems unperturbed.

Two recent items of interest from Salon: Steven Hart explores the Christian feuds and friendship of Tolkien and C.S. Lewis, while Michelle Goldberg examines the rise of the right's worst nightmare, MoveOn.org.

While Dean and Clark parry for New York votes, Tom De Lay laments the loss of his GOP convention booze cruise. As of yesterday, "some Republicans in Washington who supported the cruise liner idea were still saying that it would not have taken much money away from the city and that perhaps there are some Republican members of Congress who want to take their families to the convention but do not want them to stay in Manhattan." I see. So for the GOP, New York City is a great place to wave the bloody shirt, but God forbid they spend a night there.

"Here's a riddle: What do shuttered factories manufacture? Democrats. Or at least they might, if the national Democratic Party had the balls to do what needs to be done." Rick Perlstein treks through Illinois to evaluate the growing cracks in the Dubya (and Wal-Mart) coalition.

Easily the prohibitive frontrunner at this point, Howard Dean begins to position for the general election by burnishing his policy creds and thinking about a Democratic Congress. But now he's got the freak shows at Judicial Watch to contend with, and Klayman is as tenacious and aggravating a conspiracy nut as they come. Still, even with Judicial Watch frothing at the mouth, I doubt Papergate will be the stumbling block the rest of the Dem field is hoping for. (Congress link via Value Judgment.)

The NY Times surveys the demographic and electoral changes to the red state/blue state map going into 2004, and apparently Dubya states have picked up 7 electoral votes since the last go-around. Well, unless you're going to presume that all the people that have moved to the red zone in the past four years vote Republican, I'm not sure this tells us all that much.

Terry McAuliffe take note: Up in Iowa, up in Massachusetts (!), imperturbable in debate, Howard Dean's starting to look unstoppable. Barring a horrendous gaffe by the good doctor or a resurgent Southern swing by Clark or Edwards, it's looking to be over sooner rather than later. In fact, isn't it nigh time for some Dem candidates to follow Bob Graham to the exit...?

In a boon for President Bush's reelection chances, the GOP succeed in remaking Medicare. (At least the Dems can content themselves with defeating the energy bill.) To be honest, I haven't been following this bill as closely as I should...I always get a bit annoyed when both parties prostrate themselves before the AARP, far and away the richest (and most likely to vote) portion of the electorate. In fact, the US spends 12 times more on its oldest, wealthiest citizens than it does on its children, even though kids are three times more likely to live below the poverty line. Hence, budget and deficit-busting prescription drug giveaways in the midst of child poverty...great investment.)

All that being said, Medicare is one of the foundations of the American social safety net, just as AFDC was until 1996, and as such this act is a biggie. Mickey Kaus of Slate seems to think the bill is actually good for Dems, while Urban Institute experts believe the back door to privatization is in fact only "window dressing." But still, most Senators I trust came down against it (including John McCain, who railed against the giveaways to drug-makers in the bill.) And, while I still find it absurd that we're giving prescription drug benefits to a select portion of the electorate before finding a way to insure every citizen, even paying lip service to the idea of privatizing Medicare does not seem a step in the right direction towards universal health care.

Finally, if this bill is so innocuous, why are the GOP so gung-ho for it? I hope it's because they believe they wrested the Medicare issue away from the Democrats rather than due to any real movement towards privatization in the bill. Still, I fret. I mean, would you trust a prescription filled out by a cat-slaughterer?

As the Religious Right preps for their coming crusade against sodomites and liberals, the NY Times examines the impact of yesterday's landmark gay marriage decision in Massachusetts on the 2004 Presidential race. I dunno...I think the potential fallout for the left is being overstated. For one, it's not as if jackasses like these are going to vote Democratic anyway. For another, if Tom DeLay succeeds in pushing a constitutional amendment on marriage to a vote, it will just redound negatively on Dubya and the GOP (as even the Weekly Standard realizes.) So by all means, let's see the right-wing crazies get their dander up on this issue...the electorate will know where to stand after seeing 'em frothing at the mouth and threatening to encode their prejudices into the U.S. Constitution.

As Howard Dean announces his college-friendly education plan (which includes $10,000 a year in financial aid and a quadrupling of Americorps), William Saletan -- not one of Dean's biggest fans -- wonders how the Doctor will handle the "postwar" phase of the campaign. Meanwhile, Wesley Clark continues developing the "right-on-terror" strategy (originally articulated by Bob "Osama Bin Forgotten" Graham) by accusing the Bushies of dropping the hunt for Al Qaeda's leader in their rush to get Saddam. The general's got a point, particularly when you consider the nightmare rhetoric still emanating from Al Qaeda's corner. It's too bad the guy's so way off on flag burning. (Last link via Value Judgment.)

Via Webgoddess, Mother Jones wonders why blue-collar Nascar Dads continue to stand with Dubya. (I think "Nascar Dad," by the way, is a much better formulation of this demographic than confederate flag-thumping truck drivers.)

How did it come to this? Once the frontrunner candidate for the Dem establishment, John Kerry is now facing defeat in must-win New Hampshire, and I don't know if another campaign shake-up is going to do the trick. Even with Shaheen running Kerry's team, the Granite State is probably Dean's to lose at this point, and I'd think any move towards scorched-earth negativity on Kerry's part is only going to redound against him. But, at this point, I'd guess Kerry's running out of options...so it's probably gonna get ugly, and soon. But if it's any consolation to Team Kerry, he's not the only Dem underperforming to expectation...witness the New Yorker profile of Wesley Clark, the frontrunner that wasn't (although he does seems to be appealing to SC veterans.) Update: Well, when I said it'd get ugly, this isn't exactly what I meant...two more officials fly the Kerry coop. Update 2: Fred Kaplan takes issue with the New Yorker piece.

As Dubya continues to fill his coffers to combat the growing threat posed by Howard Dean, George Soros rides to the rescue of the Dems once again. As with Dean's recent decision, I'm feeling a bit ambivalent about what all this means for campaign finance (particularly at a time when some states are cancelling primaries), but I think most of the time Soros is on the side of the angels, and it is good to have someone to stand against the Montgomery Burnses and Richard Mellon Scaifes of this world.

Try your hand at Presidential Whack-a-Pol, via Slate. Alas, you can't win a kewpie doll...only a Commander-in-Chief.

As Dean tries to move on by belatedly apologizing for his confederate flag snafu, he is rewarded with an endorsement from the SEIU (and likely the AFSCME), some of the largest unions in the AFL-CIO. (At this point, that sucking sound you hear is Dick Gephardt's campaign folding in on itself.) Dean -- now indisputably the front-runner, and one who's starting to flirt with inevitability -- has also started weighing whether or not to opt out of public financing. Well, while it's hard to envision a scenario where Dean (or any other Dem) could remain competitive in the general if they do accept public financing (unless they struck a deal with Dubya, which is unlikely to the extreme), this moment does in some way sadly represent the death knell of the current campaign finance system. Perhaps something for the Court to consider in their McCain-Feingold deliberations.

In a series of state-of-the-election polls, the Washington Post finds the Dems split on tactics and the nation split on Dubya. Only one year to go until the big show, folks.

In the wake of last quarter's surprising economic growth, the Dems ponder calibrating their message on the Dubya economy. Hmm. I'd stay the course for now. A return to a sound economy is good news no matter what party you're in, but still, one quarter does not a resurgence make. In the wake of mounting deficits and continuing job loss, let's not let the tax-cut-junkies out there confuse a short-term high for real economic health.

A week after sidestepping Sharpton's anti-black attack (one that could have been directed at many of the major candidates), Howard Dean stumbles into a Confederate controversy. I've already written about my thoughts on this snafu at length over at Value Judgment, but to summarize: Somebody needs to tell Dean, if he doesn't know himself, that (a) the Stars-'n'-Bars is not a symbol to be thrown around lightly, and (b) most Southerners (and even the truck-drivers) do not endorse the flag or the racist sentiments that brought it back into Southern life (and the ones who do aren't going to like Dean anyway.) Dean's still in the lead for my vote, but, frankly, this is just dunderheaded, if not offensive, in its ignorance of both the South and the racial politics surrounding the flag.

Up to now, he seemed content with making a few zingers at the Dem debates. But now, Reverend Sharpton is fighting mad, calling frontrunner Howard Dean "anti-black" in a recent statement. (The Deanies have issued a reply.) Well, I'm perturbed about Dean's stance on gun control and the death penalty as well (although most of the candidates are pro-death penalty this time around.) But it seems pretty clear in this case that Sharpton is gunning more at the credibility of Jesse Jackson, Jr. (soon to endorse Dean - his father is keeping mum for now) in the black community. Besides, class-based or no, Dean is more of a friend to affirmative action than Gore was back in the day. And speaking of Gore, Dick Gephardt tries once again to pin a Gore-like Mediscare gambit on Dean. Meanwhile, John Edwards, for his part, continues to pursue the Southern strategy.

Also in campaign news, General Clark takes a page from Bob Graham and openly faults Dubya for 9/11. Said Clark, "It goes back to what our great president Harry Truman said with the sign on his desk: `The buck stops here.' And it sure is clear to me that when it comes to our nation's national security, the buck rests with the commander in chief, right on George W. Bush's desk." Well, he has a point...and up to now Dubya has had it relatively easy on this question. Could you imagine the maelstrom of right-wing finger-pointing that would have ensued if 9/11 had happened on Clinton or Gore's watch?

Bad news for Kamp Kerry...Thanks in no small part to his fiery antiestablishment rhetoric, which always seems to play well in the Granite State, Howard Dean is now up a commanding 23 points in New Hampshire (13 in this poll), and it's hard to see how Kerry can gain any traction if he can't hold his backyard. Perhaps Wesley Clark's Manchester offensive will shake things up a bit, but you have to think that Dean would have to do something really idiotic to lose NH at this point. Meanwhile, as the increasingly combative candidates prep for their fifth debate tonight, several campaigns complain the nine-person debates are a recipe for treading water.

From across the pond in London, my friend Luke starts up a new Expats Against Bush weblog. It's still in its very early stages, but expect it to grow in the near future.

Oh, there's nothing halfway about the Iowa way to treat you when they treat you which they may not do at all. Wesley Clark and Joe Lieberman plan to skip the Iowa caucus in 2004...I'd say that's a smart call for Clark (my thoughts on Lieberman are below), given how Iowa treated Bradley and McCain respectively last time around -- Bradley came in second after Gore's debate lie (actually penned by my roommate at the time), while McCain had the sense to stay out in the first place.

Speaking of which, will Joe Lieberman take a page from his old campaign partner and run a scorched-earth primary campaign? While normally I'd say the more the merrier, this time I agree with Perlstein - "It could be considered comic, this abyss at the Lieberman grassroots. It could be, that is, if Lieberman showed any signs of going away." Read the writing on the wall, Joe, and step aside.

As the WP delves into the leadership qualities of Wesley Clark, Rick Perlstein wonders aloud about the opportunities for leadership missed -- or avoided -- during the General's war correspondent days. If Clark's going to emerge from the Democratic primary, he really needs to develop an answer to his Iraq position that doesn't sound evasive or needlessly complicated. He's not there yet.

By respective votes of 303-125 and 87-12, the Iraq funding bill passes the House and Senate. (In terms of the Dem contenders, Lieberman and Gephardt voted in favor of the bill, while Kerry, Kucinich, and Edwards did not.) So Dubya got his money this time...let's hope it's enough to get the job done. Perhaps it's time for Congress to reconsider the Biden Amendment?

While General Clark comes out for national service, fellow candidates Dean and Kerry bicker over Vietnam. Hmm...while I'm very sympathetic to the idea that a war record should not be a prerequisite for political office, Kerry's military service is obviously one of his main selling points, particularly when placed in contrast to Dubya's AWOL year. So I'd say it's a dumb call for Dean to begrudge Kerry's mentioning of Vietnam, and especially given Dean's own tour in Aspen during that time. For the Deanies, I'd think the less said about 'Nam, the better.

Former Clinton Chief of Staff John Podesta aims to resurrect the progressive think tank, using the rise of similar conservative organizations in the '60's as a model. This sounds like a great idea, although, if the Center for American Progress is in fact serious about re-contemplating the party's first principles, I suspect it'll be only a matter of time before they run into trouble with the DLC establishment.

So the Dems debated again last week in Arizona (during Sox-Yankees Game 2, of all times...I caught the first half, tuned out when the goofy "Real Americans Just Like You" portion started, and refrained from playing the drinking game), and this time around General Clark was the new focus of attack. I must say, I was very unimpressed with Clark's handling of the Iraq question -- When asked about his equivocations on the subject, he equivocated. Unless the General raises his game and soon, I'd think that the smart establishment money might look anew at Kerry, Edwards, or someone else. Speaking of which, also in Dem election news, Kerry and Gephardt conspire to kick Dean off the island, as manifested by Kerry's new Gephardt-like Mediscare gambit. I definitely still could vote for Kerry, but allying with Gephardt in any capacity and playing the Mediscare game are two strikes in my book.

John McCain handicaps the Democratic field, and balks at comparisons to Dean. I dunno...a real "straight-talker" would call out Dubya a little more, I should think, particularly given the President's recent lapses in foreign affairs. Elsewhere, Wesley Clark gets in hot water for giving paid campaign speeches. What with yesterday's resignation, this is another indicator of a troubling lack of oversight over in Camp Clark. While he's still getting good press for the moment, I'd think that eventually these types of avoidable gaffes are going to add up to trouble for the General.

The Times checks in with "Generation Dean." Hey, I'll take it over the "Hipublicans." Also in Dem election news, General Clark loses his campaign manager in a power struggle between the DC ops and the Internet team. A bit early for Clark's campaign to experience this type of shake-up, isn't it?

Bob Graham steps aside. This is for the best, really, and kudos to Graham for realizing it. Joe Lieberman, take a long, hard look at this act of statesmanship.

Bob Graham hints on Saturday that the end may be near for his Presidential bid. If so, bully for him for seeing the writing on the wall. (Besides, an early bow-out can't hurt his veep credentials.)

A former Kosovo War reporter evaluates Wesley Clark's tenure as NATO commander, and finds that much of the recent criticism leveled the General's way may be somewhat unfair. In related news, the Village Voice offers a less-sympathetic view of Clark regarding the recent admissions in his new book, Winning Modern Wars.

See, this is why you don't hire right-wing throwbacks to cover football games...Rush Limbaugh invokes the "black quarterback" canard during an Eagles game, claiming that Donovan McNabb has been overhyped because "the media has been very desirous that a black quarterback do well." I presume he also thinks the media was behind the respective successes of Randall Cunningham, Kordell Stewart, Steve McNair, and Michael Vick (currently the most exciting QB in the game.) In keeping with his jackass nature, Rush is naturally standing by his comments. (For their part, Clark, Dean, and Sharpton have also weighed in.) ESPN should do the right thing and let Limbaugh dangle, but I doubt that's going to happen...even with whatever dirt the Enquirer's drudged up on him. After all, as this story notes, "Limbaugh once said he felt guilty about telling an African-American caller to 'take that bone out of your nose and call me back.' He still uses the mock dialect 'ax' instead of 'ask' when discussing black leaders on his syndicated radio show and often plays the theme song 'Movin' On Up' from 'The Jeffersons' when referring to Carol Moseley Braun." Does this racist buffoon have any business covering the world of sports? Update: Well, that's then...Rush resigned. Smart of him to try to nip this Lott-sized bud now before everyone starts taking a closer look at his long history of questionable racial remarks.

General Wesley Clark stumps for faster-than-light travel in New Hampshire. "I still believe in e=mc², but I can't believe that in all of human history, we'll never ever be able to go beyond the speed of light to reach where we want to go. I happen to believe that mankind can do it...It's my only faith-based initiative." Well, I guess he's up on Dubya, who's still trying to work out evolution. At the same rally, Clark introduced Professor John Frink as his potential National Science Advisor. "Suppose we extend the square beyond the two dimensions of our universe... along the hypothetical Z axis, there..."

In other campaign news, Bush outtpaced Dean -- the leading Democratic fund-raiser -- by a factor of three in the past three months, and has now raised $82.5 million for his 2004 campaign. No money for jobs, no money for rebuilding Iraq...but plenty to go around for Dubya's re-election. Go figure.

In another dismal poll for the Bushies, only a third of Arizonans want to keep Dubya in 2004. (Bush won the state by 6 in 2000.) Would the land of McCain go instead for a Clark or Dean?

Is General Clark eating into Dean's numbers? Perhaps, but I don't think it matters all that much at the moment. As stories on the frosty relationship between the two suggest, Dean is already a top-tier candidate - it's the gaggle of media-hungry candidates below him that should most worry about the Clark buzz and ensuing press vacuum. For another, Dean's the only Dem candidate right now other than Clark who seems to attract true believers (as any number of weblogs will attest.) Sure, the Doctor may be losing waverers - but I'd bet he has the largest number of core supporters going, and they seem more committed and battle-tested than Clark's new volunteer army.

In the newest set of 2004 preview polls, Dubya is tied with a number of Dems, including Clark, Kerry, and Lieberman (Dean and Gephardt run slightly behind.) For his part, Bush say he's not listening to the primary furor, yet that's not stopping the White House from sweating today's UN address, or GOP flaks from decrying the Dems' "political hate speech." Hate speech? Heh. Perhaps Gillespie should be referred to a little matter called impeachment...it was in the papers a few years back. Also in Election 2004 news, be sure to check out Value Judgment, a site I found in the referrer logs a few weeks ago. It's very pro-Dean, but nevertheless does a superlative job in keeping up with Dem primary news.

The major media outlets profile Wesley Clark.

While the General makes his first (very) tentative steps on the campaign trail, John Kerry looks to looks to regain the momentum in what fast threatens to be a Dean v. Clark race.

Also in the Voice, Rick Perlstein, author of Before the Storm (which I raved about here), argues for the Dems to come out swinging against Dubya in 2004. Amen.

It's unofficial - Wesley Clark will become the tenth contender in the crowded Democratic field and - barring an early screw-up of monumental proportions - has to be considered one of the frontrunners immediately. It'll be interesting to see how he shakes up the race - I expect he'll take some of Dean's mavericks, Kerry's military men, and, perhaps most importantly, Edwards' Southerners. (Perhaps sensing the threat, Gore alumnus Chris Lehane left the Kerry team.) In other election news, Edwards officially announces his candidacy (Poor luck that Clark'll steal his media today), while the NY Times's David Brooks examines why GOP ops love Dean. (I, for one, don't really buy it - Dean has to be more worrisome than a milquetoast like Graham.)

In the last week before the General makes his anticipated move, Dean courts Clark for a final time. Nevertheless, it looks like Clark is a go (provided he finds time away from his advocacy of military bicycles.) In other Dem election news, Dean (who's now pulling ahead in Iowa and everywhere else) got in a spot of trouble the other night in the third debate. Regarding the furor over Israel, I thought Dean successfully parried Lieberman's attack by invoking Clinton, and made Joe (and Gephardt's flunkies) seem as desperately aggressive as they in fact are. Yet, while he generally avoided the Mean Dr. Dean schtick this time, his comments on race -- "I'm the only white politician that ever talks about race in front of white audiences." -- smacks of Gore-like hyperbole. Overblown, self-aggrandizing, and flagrantly ridiculous remarks like those cost Mediscare Al dearly in 2000...I would hope Dean knows better to repeat that mistake. At any rate, I thought Kerry and Kucinich also did quite well, although these two -- especially the latter - might soon have to face the music when the General unleashes his cyclists on Sept. 19.

While he's still abusing the terrorism angle to hoodwink us on Iraq (As Howard Dean noted yesterday, the only indisputable thing Iraq has to do with terrorism is that we've now chosen it as the place where terrorists can attack us), Dubya at least admitted on nationwide television that unilaterally, we're in over our head, which I suppose amounts to what alcoholics refer to as a moment of clarity. Yet, with the necessary Iraq funds -- even lowballed as they are -- threatening to blow the deficit to $525 billion, I do hope that the Bushies realize that the responsibility and sacrifice they're expecting from the American people, our somewhat skeptical allies, and everyone but themselves in prosecuting this war should preclude any more discussion of a tax cut in the coming year. After all, why shouldn't America's wealthiest citizens also have to pay the heavy price for Dubya's blundering, incompetent, and hubris-ridden diplomacy on the road to war?

In a decision that may prove costly for Congressional Dems in 2004, John Edwards cancels his Senate bid to focus full-time on running for President. (I'd say Erskine Bowles is a strong back-up candidate - still, Dems are rarely an easy sell in North Carolina). I presume Edwards is making this move to gather some momentum and try to stake out the "Son of the South" slot in the top tier before Clark shows up to steal his mojo. As I've noted before, Edwards plays the populism angle very well, but he's going to have a seriously uphill battle should the General join the fight. And at the moment he's got ground to make up in my mind for his defense of the Patriot Act.

As noted yesterday, the Court heard arguments this morning on the Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act (McCain-Feingold). And, in spite of reformers' earlier hopes, it seems Chief Justice Rehnquist was predisposed against the law, meaning that the fateful decision is probably in the hands of Justice O'Connor, as per usual. Politically speaking, I'd think this Court would have to uphold reform after thrusting themselves so deeply into the Bush v. Gore fiasco, but I guess we'll see. (Speaking of which, on a side note, conservative zealot Ted Olsen apparently referred to his friend and fellow Richard Mellon Scaife patron Ken Starr as "Justice Starr" during the proceedings, telling him he'll "have to wait" for his spot on the bench. Sorry, Ken, not in a million years.)

With Dubya looking more vulnerable than ever, the calls for Clark's candidacy continue among the media. "If Clark sustains momentum, he drives out candidates quicker than Iowa or New Hampshire will...He has the ability to make it a three-man race: Dean, Clark and Gephardt, who isn't going anywhere with all those union endorsements." Meanwhile, the rest of the Dem field release their ads and ponder when to unleash on Dean.

As the Democratic field aim to eat into Dean's lead at the New Mexico debate tonight, Gen. Clark draws closer to throwing his own hat in the ring. As I said earlier, I'd think having a (not-so-)dark horse like Clark siphon off media coverage and funding would mean campaign death for many of the second-tier candidates...and, at this point, winnowing the field is in most everyone's interest.

With Howard Dean's place currently secure as a top-tier candidate (despite perhaps needing to burnish his foreign policy creds for the stretch run), a number of other Dems try to take advantage of the Labor Day rush to gain some traction before Wesley Clark becomes the soup du jour. As such, a Military Kerry officially announces in SC, an experienced Gephardt unveils new ads, and a newly compassionate Lieberman offers a "MediKids" plan. Well, the jury may still be out in Iowa, but I think I can safely say there's very little chance of my voting Gephart and absolutely none of my voting Lieberman. Kerry still has a shot, though, depending how the campaign goes over the fall.

In case you haven't been following along up to this point, the NY Times summarizes the state of the 2004 Democratic field heading into Labor Day weekend (Gen. Wesley Clark excepted, for the time being.) On the other side of the aisle, Dubya's 9/11 actions are given the rose-colored Showtime treatment (with Timothy Bottoms of That's My Bush! playing Dubya again, no less.) Let's see...Lying about witnessing the first attack, reading The Pet Goat for ten minutes while the WTC smoldered, disappearing from public view for the remainder of the day while jetting to Omaha, scampering about atop the ruins (and remains) a few days later while playing fratboy games with a megaphone...It should make for an interesting film, if they pause long enough to stop waving the bloody shirt.

Riding the wave of the Sleepless Summer tour, Howard Dean is not only 21 points up on Kerry in NH, he's just raised another $10 million over the past few months (other than Clinton in 1995, a fund-raising record.) I had planned to go to the Bryant Park rally last night, but opted to watch the aptly-named Chris Moneymaker win the World Series of Poker instead. Ah well...if Dean keeps this type of stride going, I expect he'll be back.

Compassionate? Sheah. That dog won't hunt this cycle...the Bushies had better think of something else.

The Post handicaps the 2004 Senate races. And it appears the Dems'll have trouble in the South if Graham and/or Edwards don't stand down by then.

Warriors, come out and play...With help from Columbia's own KJ, David Greenberg attempts to explain the lack of NYC looters during the blackout, particularly as compared to the events of 1977. Also, in blackout news, the Dems (Edwards excepted) point the finger at Dubya's lousy energy and infrastructure policies. Works for me.

Despite the 2.6 million jobs lost during his tenure, Dubya declares his tax cut was the "absolute right course of action" for restoring the economy. I guess we'll see...expect the Bushies to latch on to every moderately decent economic indicator in the next eighteen months as being directly related to the Dubya tax debacle. By the way, do you get the sense Karl told Dubya to use the phrase "tough decision"?

Campaign Update: While Howard Dean enjoys a very good press week, a flailing Joe Lieberman rails against the Left (and calls Dean a "ticket to nowhere.") How utterly self-serving. Meanwhile, although it's nothing compared to Dubya's, John Edwards prepares to capitalize on his own considerable war chest.

"I can tell you this categorically, we've got the weakest president and weakest government in the history of my 50 years of public service. I say weak president in that the poor boy campaigns all the time and pays no attention to what's going on in the Congress. Karl Rove tells him to do this or do that or whatever it is, but he's out campaigning." On his way out the door, South Carolina's Fritz Hollings speaks his mind on Dubya. Hear hear.

With New Hampshire continuing to heat up, Dean and Kerry spar over tax cut repeal. It's at least comforting to see that the front-running Dems know the Dubya tax giveaway has to go.

As Dean scores another Internet coup and looks even more competitive in New Hampshire, the DLC tries to scare the left into submission with polls suggesting a mass defection of white males (veterans notwithstanding, I presume.) Perhaps it should be noted that Mark Penn is currently working for the Lieberman campaign. In related news, Jonathans Chait and Cohn debate Dean's effect on the race in TNR. And, finally, John Edwards announces his health care plan in New Hampshire in Clintonesque fashion. (Veteran link via Follow Me Here.)

Garance Franke-Ruta, an old friend from college, checks in with the Dean campaign and tries to dispel the McGovern comparisons emanating from the DLC.

Now this is more like it. After a steady stream of "2004's in the bag" type-stories, the GOP starts to sweat a little. "'The economy is touch and go,' said Dick Taylor, another RNC member from Maryland. 'I've got to believe it recovers really fast. If not, obviously we'll be in some trouble.'"

"The president's approval rating fell to 59%, its lowest level since March...Democrats had a 17-point advantage, 53%-36%, when poll respondents were asked which party would do a better job handling the economy. In January, the GOP had a 43%-42% edge."

Running about a month behind the meme, the LA Times offers up yet another story on presumed GOP dominance in 2004. You'd think recent events would start to mitigate this type of wishful thinking.

Along with an Anti-Dean cover story ("Must he be stopped?" asks the Jonathan Chait piece), the New Republic evaluates the political consequences of Dean's rise for the rest of the field. Given how absurdly in the tank for Gore TNR was during the last Dem primary, their endorsement holds very little weight with me. In related news, the Greens start planning for their own 2004 campaign, for which we can once again thank the DLC. So long as Republicratic Dems continue to attack their own left flank in the early going, the Greens will continue to ignore the Democrat in the general election. It's not rocket science, y'all. You don't see the GOP declaring war on their own true believers.

Two interesting editorials in today's Globe: Derrick Jackson wonders aloud about the GOP's double standard on Presidential lies, while H.D.S. Greenway laments the diplomatic damage wrought by Dubya's ill-advised "axis of evil" rhetoric. Dishonest and incompetent...the total package.

Speaking of ugly, Drudge points the way to new poll numbers that show Dubya's numbers dwindling to pre-9/11 levels. It's about time.

Weaponsgate fallout continues, with Ted Kennedy decrying Dubya's foreign policy, John Kerry lambasting Homeland (in)Security under Bush, and Dean and Lieberman calling for Tenet's head. Whether or not Tenet continues to fall on his sword for the Bushies, the buck stops with the White House, and the GOP Senate can only play defense for so long. What did Dubya know, and when did he know it?

It isn't just Weaponsgate: Dubya can't stop lying about the economy, either. And with the Dubya deficit ballooning and the states feeling the pinch, don't expect any further candor from the White House in the months to come.

Perhaps taking a page from the Governor of Vermont (whom he declined to attack), Kerry turns up the heat on Dubya and Weaponsgate, as do the Congressional Dems. Good...the pressure from now herein should be furious and unrelenting. And under no circumstances should the Bushies be allowed to get away with lying to America by pinning it on John Bull.

Ralph Nader discusses the possibility of a 2004 run (less if Kucinich or Dean win the Dem nomination), while Wesley Clark's noncampaign continues to gain steam.

William Saletan, who's been rather unkind to Dean in the past, shows his hand - he's for Edwards. Unfortunately, Saletan's case here makes me less inclined to vote for him. "If Dean's strength is speaking bluntly to the right, Edwards, like Joe Lieberman, has shown a facility for speaking bluntly to the left." That's exactly what I don't want to hear.

After a week of considerable coverage for Dean (due to his second-quarter funding success), John Edwards tries to get back in the game by unveiling his corporate accountability plan. As usual, I think Edwards is playing this smart. The issue shores up his Populist creds while drawing attention to an area where Dubya is dismal. And Edwards still holds a trump card, in that he is the only top-tier candidate with an answer to the Dem's Southern problem. It'd be nice to see Edwards, Dean, and Kerry go head-to-head-to-head in a real debate, but first the field still needs to be culled, of course.

Amid all the prophesying about a coming era of Republican dominance, Chris Suellentrop of Slate remembers that we've heard this all before.

The Dubya dip continues, with unemployment at a nine-year high and comparisons to Herbert Hoover starting to make the rounds. Expect Bush to start touting the rise in butlers, maids, and gardeners thanks to his tax giveaway to the rich.

Good news for Team Dean - The Vermont Governor has entered the top tier of Dems in campaign fundraising, and he's done it without prostrating himself before fatcats. However one feels about Dean, he's a candidate who should be taken seriously by the Dems - it's good to know that, whatever happens, he can't be priced out of the nomination battle by a Kerry, Gephardt, or Lieberman. Ideas, not money, will hopefully decide the day.

As noted many places around the blogosphere, Dean reannounced his candidacy yesterday. I like Dean quite a bit - of all the electable candidates I think he's currently striking the best tone regarding both the Bushies and the DLC. But I must admit, I am somewhat perturbed by his faux-liberalism - this Saletan piece reads like a hit, but it's correct in noting that, despite Dean's campaign strategy, the good doctor is more DLC than true lefty...in fact, Dean himself is guilty of savaging his own left flank as governor. So, Dean's definitely in the hunt for my vote, but he still has to contend with Kerry and Edwards for the time being.

The perennial question: Is George W. Bush a liar or a moron? The answer: Yes, says Slate's Tim Noah.

The Washington Post offers yet another story on the GOP belief in their upcoming electoral dominance. (It is counterpoised with an article on the lost and wayward Dems.) Didn't we hear all this before, after the 1994 midterms? What goes around comes around, and while Dubya's support may be a mile wide, it's also an inch deep, particularly when you consider that 3 out of 4 Americans didn't vote for him in 2000. Whether it be Weaponsgate, corporate malfeasance, handouts to the rich, intemperate buffoons, or, much more likely, just the simple fact of the Dubya dip, the GOP is strutting about on feet of clay.

While the Democratic party as a whole continues to seem as divided and stymied by the Dubya dip as they do Weaponsgate, several of the candidates lash out on their own, including John Edwards, who calls the Dubya tax cuts the "most radical and dangerous economic theory to hit our shores since Socialism." I'd think Eugene Debs is probably turning over in his grave at the comparison.

William Saletan goes ga-ga for John Kerry (which would hold more water with me if he hadn't slavered over Gore back in the day), while Dean snipes at Graham, calling him a "lower-tier candidate." True enough, but Dean has to be careful - he's already garnered something of a reputation as Mean Dr. Dean, and coming out for the death penalty won't help. Rounding out the top tier (I can say it, even if Dean can't), John Edwards calls for middle-class tax cuts, to be paid for by raising taxes on the wealthy. A smart move, in keeping with the populist track Edwards has staked out, even if I think a payroll tax cut makes much more sense.

Election 2004 update: Kerry tries to separate from the herd by announcing his proposed national energy policy today, which includes raising fuel-efficiency standards (currently at 20.7 and 27.5 miles per gallon for SUVs and cars respectively) to 36mpg by 2015. (Of the other leading candidates, Dean appears to concur with tougher standards, while Edwards - also in Iowa today to call for pension reform - has voted for a truck exemption in the past...the perils of a pickup state.)I like the "Of Big Oil, by Big Oil, for Big Oil" line...hopefully the pack will continue to call out Bush before turning on each other anew.

Interesting...Tom De Lay has refused Dubya's call to pass the child tax credit. "Ain't going to happen," replied the Exterminator. "The last time I checked, he doesn't have a vote." While De Lay's recalcitrance probably helps Dubya/Rove achieve "triangulation," I wonder if the White House will make De Lay pay...perhaps by allowing Dems to look into his abuse of Homeland Security mentioned the other day.

The Boston Globe sheds a little light into the dark corridors of oppo research. Of course we already know Dubya was a alcoholic cokehead who went AWOL for a year to escape a drug test and had so little sense that he'd drive around drunk...and we still elected him for four years. So skeletons in the closet just ain't what they used to be.

Ryan Lizza looks at the charges of plagiarism and kleptomania resounding across the Democratic field at the moment, singling out the Dean campaign as the most "protective--some might say paranoid." It seems to me that, while there's clearly a lot of protective camouflage going on, one would have to expect some degree of overlap in a field of nine candidates, particularly when the allowable range of leftiness is so frustratingly small.

Found via TNR's Etc., Trent Lott tells us what he really thinks of helping poor children: "Although almost every Senate Republican voted for the [child tax credit], some clearly were unhappy at having to do so under what they considered public pressure from liberal groups and Democrats. Senator Trent Lott of Mississippi voted for the bill, but as he did so he stuck his tongue out, put his finger in his mouth and made a gagging sound, indicating his apparent distaste for the bill." I wonder if C-SPAN caught this - it'd make for a great campaign ad to show the families of Mississippi.

The Democratic candidates find out there's more to the party than the DLC at the Take Back America conference. Good to see an uprising against the Lieberman Republicrats, and that the rest of the Dem field now - thanks in part to Howard Dean - has to take progressive discontent seriously.

In related news, the Green party contemplates folding in with the Dems for the next election cycle. Hmmm...although the candidates may currently be tacking left, I seriously doubt it's going to happen, given the type of garbage the DLC is spouting at its left flank these days.

If you can judge a man by his enemies, then Howard Dean picked up a key endorsement last week. Via Scully by e-mail, Al From's Democratic Leadership Council - one of Al Gore's main water-carriers in 2000 and an organization which counts Joe Lieberman and Bob Graham among its members - decides to attack Howard Dean as an "elitist." What garbage...The DLC is going to have find a better way of dealing with their left flank than simply casting old GOP insults their way. It's exactly this type of Republican-lite thinking endlessly promoted by From's organization that made Ralph Nader the spoiler in 2000. Don't think it couldn't happen again. Update: Perhaps Clinton will straighten 'em out, although it sounds like he's just reading from the Lieberman-Graham playbook instead. Update 2: Independent James Jeffords criticizes the DLC remarks, calling it "incredible to hear such charges coming from Democrats." Not as incredible as it once was, I'm afraid.

In a cover story for TIME, Joe Klein gives his take on the Democratic field. I don't agree with everything he has to say (for example, giving Dubya a pass on Iraq), but it's worth reading nonetheless.

In keeping with his right-on-terror campaign strategy, Senator Bob Graham accuses Dubya of a 9/11 coverup. While I don't particularly care for Graham's brand of fear-mongering, he's got a point this time around...that congressional report should be made public, and particularly if the centerpiece of Dubya's re-election campaign will involve waving the bloody shirt as planned.

The NYT surveys the Kerry-Dean primary battlefield, and allows Dean to sound off on his grumpy debate performance.

Karl Rove, alleged architect of the Iraq war (and recently exposed as an Eric Foner fan in Nicholas Lemann's New Yorker piece this week) steps out from behind the curtain to revel in the adulation of New Hampshire. If he only had a heart.

Must be election season...Despite the desires of the NRA, Dubya plans to support a continued ban on assault weapons. I'm sure he can just have Ashcroft vacate it later.

The first Democratic debate is set for tonight at 9pm (although you probably have a better chance of catching it on C-Span tomorrow.) And, if nothing else, the 90-minute forum will offer long-suffering South Carolina progressives (or, at least, those of us not in exile) a chance to influence the Democratic primary as never before. Should be fun.

Apparently, Bush gave a campaign speech on the USS Abraham Lincoln yesterday, but I couldn't hear it over all the saber-rattling. Something to do with Iraq being about September 11 or somesuch. At any rate, you have to wonder if any of the officers on the Lincoln wondered when they saw Dubya show up in aviator gear if he was coming to make up for the year he spent AWOL and on the lam from military drug tests. The election of 2004 will be won or lost on the Bush record, but nevertheless - push the Mr. Military campaign tack too far and people might just start taking a closer look at Dubya's year-long holiday.

Sensing a misstep on the military question, John Kerry launches into Howard Dean, his most potent rival in the New Hampshire primary. For their part, the Dean camp counters by accusing Kerry of Gore-like evasiveness. Meanwhile, on another front, Harold Meyerson of The American Prospect suggests Dean is using the Gore playbook in his attacks on Gephardt's health plan. I still run hot and cold on John Kerry, but I must say, hiring Gore flunky Chris Lehane as his campaign spokesman clearly goes in the minus column...he may be good at his job, but Lehane still exudes Gore's insincerity. At any rate, with less a week until the first debate, it's definitely on.

Ok, Gephardt may have a health plan, but Howard Dean has a blog. (Via Breaching the Web.) It's going to be fascinating watching how these candidates work to differentiate themselves in the coming months. There can be only one...

Utilizing a technique he learned in his fratboy hazing days, Dubya decides to freeze France out for her opposition to the war in Iraq. Along the same lines, Bushies are now trying to deride Kerry by saying he looks French. (Why not tell the American people he's got cooties, while you're at it?) Yes, folks, these people run the country.

In the election of 2004, will the Dems have to keep an eye on the Green Machine? As David Talbot reports, Ralph Nader will probably run again, despite calls that he back down to support an anti-Bush coalition. Actually quite a fascinating article, not only to discover that Michael Moore is giving the Greens good advice (his message: follow the example of the Christian Coalition and build from the bottom-up) but also because it's the Dems that are freezing out cross-progressive talks between the parties. Bad, bad call: playing hardball with your left flank is only going to further embitter Green voters, and we've already seen where that got Gore.

Dick Gephardt tries to separate from the Democratic herd by offering a bold health care proposal that also repeals the ridiculous Dubya tax cuts. It was interesting to read of Gephardt's proposal right after finishing Jacob Hacker's The Divided Welfare State, since his proposal buttresses Hacker's main point. Rather than develop a new public health care infrastructure a la the 1994 Clinton plan, Gephardt's plan basically follows the path of least resistance and subcontracts health care out to private insurance companies. This will no doubt make it easier to pass in our neo-con political climate than the '94 Clinton bill. That being said, as Hacker notes, letting the private sector run our social welfare regime severely cuts back on the redistributive potential of health care reform. But, hey, private universal health care coverage is better than no universal health care coverage. And it's a smart move by Gephardt to appeal to the base.

Team Dubya unveil their 4-part 2004 electoral strategy: 1) visit NYC, 2) wallow in 9-11 nostalgia, 3) invoke the never-ending war, and then 4) spend money like it's going out of style. I dunno...I could see a WTC memorial campaign seriously backfiring, particularly if the economy is in the toilet. And a late start by Dubya should give the Democratic candidate some time to get his (or her) house in order after what's sure to be an ugly primary. Speaking of which, on the other side of the aisle, the nine Dems will be holding their first debate next week on ABC...It begins.

Via Pigs and Fishes, Democrat José Serrano is sponsoring a bill to repeal the 22nd Amendment. Sounds good to me.

Kerry's got the loot, Lieberman's spending too much, Edwards is bleeding support (I'm not sure if losing Shrum is a negative), and, even among nine candidates, Florida Senator Bob Graham has come up with a novel position on the Middle East: He's against the war in Iraq, for a war in Syria. And we've got eighteen months to go, folks.

Continuing with his newfound Chris-Rock-in-Head-of-State candor, John Kerry announces he will only appoint pro-choice Supreme Court justices if elected. (He also takes the time to differentiate between political "litmus tests" and the defense of constitutional rights.) Kerry's really onto something lately with the whole anti-Gore, Straight-Talk-Express bit...let's hope it continues.

To the vast credit of our armed forces, the Iraq war now seems to be going as well as it possibly can. (As I've said several times before, I fear the Iraqi peace will be somewhat tougher.) But the Bushies aren't in the clear yet. For, despite all the work Karl Rove's doing to paint Dubya as Eisenhower for the reelection campaign, it's still the economy, stupid. And despite our military successes outside Baghdad, the deficit is soaring, the GOP is repudiating their own budget, and the economy is now clearly poised for the Dubya-dip. Like father, like son?

"The Republicans have tried to make a practice of attacking anybody who speaks out strongly by questioning their patriotism. I refuse to have my patriotism or right to speak out questioned. I fought for and earned the right to express my views in this country." John Kerry presses the attack against the gaggle of GOP flaks (with no military experience) casting anti-American aspersions his way, and as a result is now screaming back up the Murphometer. Unlike Daschle, Kerry seems to have learned not to back down after stating the obvious. Let's hope it's the start of a trend among Democratic Presidential candidates. Update: Salon posts the text of Kerry's speech: "I don't need any lessons in patriotism from the likes of Tom DeLay." Fellow Dems, this is cause for hope.

On the question of war, it seems that, Dennis Kucinich notwithstanding, the Dems have basically decided to lay low for the time being. It's the Iraq vote all over again...when is our party going to get its act together? Be they pro-war or anti-war, Democratic reps should be actively involved in the public debate on Iraq, not running scared from the underhanded smears of the administration. Get in the game, people. Update: Perhaps this is the beginning. At a Q & A today, John Kerry argued that the world will only trust a new president after the experience of this war. Y'know, I think he's on to something.

Also via Medley (and Genehack), GOP ops in several midwestern states, trying to stay afloat after the Dubya dip, have keyed in on the ultimate money-saving device: cancelling primaries. I mean, we all know Bush is going to win again anyway, right? Right?