THE WEBLOG OF KEVIN C. MURPHY: CONJURING POLITICAL, CINEMATIC, AND CULTURAL ARCANA SINCE 1999

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Almost Blue.

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As seen at many fine blogs this past Thanksgiving week (including FmH & Medley), some nice visual data to be thankful for (and for all those red state/blue state dualists to ponder): One year after Election 2004, America's blue over Dubya.

And they're off.

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"'We can't afford to be anti-, against everything,' Mr. Vilsack said. 'America is waiting for us. They are desperate to know what we are for.'" Democratic presidential hopefuls -- including Hillary Clinton, Mark Warner, Evan Bayh, and Tom Vilsack -- sound centrist themes and an end to internecine conflict before the DLC. And, in related news, congressional Dems finally propose an alternative to Dubya's Social Security privatization plan with Amerisave. The plan would "increase incentives for middle-class workers to participate in 401(k) retirement accounts and individual retirement accounts [and] create tax credits for small businesses that set up retirement accounts for their employees." Update: So much for Dem unity.

The Nuclear Option.

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In an attempt to raise his domestic agenda from the dead, Dubya sings the praises of nuclear power. I guess Montgomery Burns' check must've cleared.

Dubya cries foul.

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With Social Security privatization going nowhere and Bolton still in mothballs until the White House coughs up the requested info, Dubya gets testy about Democratic "obstruction" at a GOP fundraising affair. Well, it's good to hear the right-wingers are rattled, but at some point, the Dems do need to get a proactive agenda on the table, so the "road block" schtick doesn't stick.

In the face of growing bipartisan support (and withering hopes for Social Security privatization) in Congress, Dubya declares he will veto a bill easing stem cell restrictions. In five years, Dubya has never used the veto before...but of course he's always ready to answer the bell when the right-wing fundies come-a-knockin'.

Not Like Ike.

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And here I thought the military-industrial complex speech was prescient...
(Quote and links seen at Medley and birddogged by David Sirota):

"Should any political party attempt to abolish social security, unemployment insurance, and eliminate labor laws and farm programs, you would not hear of that party again in our political history. There is a tiny splinter group, of course, that believes you can do these things. Among them are...a few other Texas oil millionaires, and an occasional politician or business man from other areas. Their number is negligible and they are stupid." - Dwight D. Eisenhower, 11/8/54

The Closer.

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In a "major shift in legislative strategy" aimed at preserving Dubya's ill-advised privatization plan, the White House turns Social Security legislation over to House Ways and Means chairman Bill Thomas. "The California Republican saved President Bush's tax cut in 2003, [and] has never lost a vote on the floor...Thomas, a mercurial lawmaker and former college professor who relishes a challenge, 'wants to get in the game,' whether or not the GOP leadership wants him to, said one corporate lobbyist with close ties to House leaders."

Delusions of Grandeur.

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"Even among many influential conservatives, there has been a growing consensus that the Bush governing theory, at least on Social Security, has been proved wrong." 100 days into the second term, the Dubya White House starts to realize they may not have received a mandate after all. Meanwhile, on the Left Coast, the Governator is learning much the same lesson.

Gambler's Ruin.

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I missed Dubya's press conference last night -- I taught my two last sections of the term, then headed for an arts fundraising shindig downtown (where I picked up a celebrity sighting in Chiwetel Ejiofor) -- but, frankly, it doesn't sound like I missed much. "With two in three Americans disapproving of the way Bush has handled Social Security, many political observers thought it would be prudent for Bush to cut his losses and negotiate a bipartisan compromise on Social Security...Instead, Bush held a prime-time news conference and doubled down on his bet." Dubya tries to regain the Social Security initiative by declaring he'll cut benefits for everyone but the poor. Privatization and lower benefits? Hey, what a deal!

Moderate Chance of Snowe.

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"Social Security became the bedrock of support for seniors in my state precisely because it's defined and guaranteed,"[Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME)] said. 'What cost and what risk is it worth to erode the guaranteed benefit?'" With both Sens. Snowe and Craig Thomas (R-WY) voicing their doubts on the GOP side, Day 1 of the Senate Finance Committee's discussion of Dubya's Social Security plan seems to indicate serious trouble ahead for Dubya's privatization scheme.

Birds of a Feather.

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"Bush is supporting DeLay as 'strongly as he ever has, which is strongly,' McClellan said." While trying once again to salvage his Social Security privatization plan (which even Republicans on the Senate Finance Commitee are now shying away from), Dubya struts beside Boss DeLay for all the world to see. Well, Mr. President, if he's really the type of fellow you want us to associate with your administration...

"[F]or many investors Thatcher's plan has fallen flat. Many investment funds charged huge commissions and fees, leaving contributors worse off than they would have been in the state system. The stock market collapse four years ago compounded their losses. Meanwhile, many private pension plans have gone bust, after companies drained those plans to pay off rising debts." As England's experience since Margaret Thatcher suggests, Dubya's desired privatization of Social Security will likely cause more problems than it solves. (Somebody tell the nation's business associations.)

Rewriting Roosevelt.

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"He who controls the present, controls the past. He who controls the past, controls the future." Or is quoting Orwell too shrill? Well, you tell me -- A coalition of women's groups are blocked from holding a forum on Social Security at the FDR Library in Hyde Park because none of the attendees wanted to support Dubya's ill-conceived privatization plan (Two Republican representatives were invited to speak -- both declined.)

I'm just going to go out on a limb here and say that, despite the lies of Brit Hume and FOX News, ole FDR himself would probably have agreed that dismantling one of his most enduring achievements so that Dubya's Wall Street cronies could pad their wallets is a lousy idea. (For what it's worth, FDR's grandson agrees.) At any rate, the new head of the National Archives, Allen Weinstein, is trying to mitigate the damage. And, well he should, for after all: "Weinstein has been on the job for six weeks. Several historical organizations opposed his selection, fearing he would politicize the archives. Bush removed the previous archivist without providing a reason to Congress."

Everything in Moderation?

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Christie Todd Whitman may refuse to name names, but Episcopal minister and former GOP Senator John Danforth got the general point across last Wednesday in the NYT: "By a series of recent initiatives, Republicans have transformed our party into the political arm of conservative Christians." It's gotten to the point where even Rick Santorum feels he may have to modulate his right-wing schtick in order to get re-elected in 2006.

A tip for Santorum: Being a moderate these days means occasionally taking tough stands against your own party, as Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) is proving with his compromise Social Security plan. "Graham's plan would raise Social Security taxes for high-income earners, and reduce their eventual retirement benefits." So, naturally, "the free-market group Club for Growth, meanwhile, is running TV ads in South Carolina attacking Graham for proposing tax increases."

Wait 'til Next Year.

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In a moment of clarity, House Speaker Dennis Hastert joins his GOP colleagues Frist and DeLay in declaring what now seems obvious, that Dubya's Social Security privatization plan probably can't pass this year. For their part, the White House immediately disagreed.

On Life Support.

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Dubya's ailing Social Security PSAs take another hit, with even conservative intellectuals starting to turn against Dubya's plan in print. Yep, seems like a goner.

"George W. Bush's plan to remake the Social Security system is kaput. This is not a value judgment. It's a statement of political fact." While Dubya, Cheney, and McCain (carrying water for the administration as usual) continue their respective privatization dog-and-pony shows, Slate's Jacob Weisberg puts PSAs in the fridge.

A Line in the Sand.

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While the GOP may have bent the rules to facilitate passage of the ANWR drilling bill (set for a vote today), it appears they face a Senate shutdown by the Dems if they keep pressing on Dubya's wacko judicial appointees. And why not? Dubya has revealed he's not going to relent on Social Security PSAs, despite their unpopularity, and he continues to appoint controversial right-wing neocons like Paul Wolfowitz to top positions (in this case, the World Bank.) If Dubya and the Right don't want to compromise, then we Dems shouldn't play ball. It's 1993 all over again. (That being said, it's probably wise of Reid to keep legislation "supporting our troops" out of the boycott...FOX News would have a field day with that one.) Update: By a 51-49 vote, the Senate opens ANWR to drilling, with Dems Daniel Akaka, (D-HI), Daniel Inouye (D-HI), and Mary Landrieu (D-LA) putting the GOP over the top.

Update 2: Slate's Fred Kaplan has more on the Wolfowitz pick.


Update 3: Conservative George Will warns against GOP tampering with the filibuster rule.

Bait and Switch?

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"We've now got this huge fight over a sideshow," Graham said during a meeting with Washington Post reporters and editors. "It's always been a sideshow, but we sold it as the main event." To the White House's consternation, Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) argues for sidelining Dubya's private accounts in favor of a Social Security compromise. Well, let's make sure they're well off the table before we talk.

Open War.

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With the Social Security fight looming on the horizon, Dems and the GOP clash over ethics in the House and both abortion and the minimum wage in the Senate. (Salon's Tim Grieve exposed the fraudulence of the Santorum "alternative" minimum wage plan yesterday.) Speaking of Social Security, several prominent Dems -- including James Carville, Stan Greenberg, and Harold Ickes -- advise our side to produce an alternative reform plan to Dubya's private accounts, and soon.

Say it ain't so, Joe.

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"Some lawmakers and senior party aides say that Mr. Lieberman remains in good standing. But they say that could change if he broke ranks and gave Mr. Bush a prominent Democratic ally on Social Security." As feared and as usual, Senator Joe Lieberman seems to be the weak link in Democratic unity against the Dubya Social Security plan (although, to his credit, he has at least renounced private savings accounts.) Remember, Joe, once you start down the dark path, forever will it dominate your destiny. Just look what happened to the Zell-out.

Take your flunky and dangle.

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After undoubtedly being read the Rove riot act for his earlier apostasy, a chastened Catkiller Frist changes his tune on Social Security reform and now says it has to happen this year. But, even with Dubya spinning otherwise, it's starting to look ever clearer that the GOP privatization plan is going down.

A crack in the lines.

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Third rail redux...As the White House pushes for a renewed GOP advance on Dubya's privatization scheme, the big Congressional names -- Frist and DeLay -- have started hedging their bets. Hmmm...if the Republican leaders are already acting this shaky, the ground troops must be contemplating a full-on rout. In fact, to pursue the military metaphor, Harry Reid and the Dems should take this moment of weakness as the perfect opportunity to unleash some heavy-duty Harry and Louise-type firepower. Remember '93? It's payback time.

Third Rail Anxiety.

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Stand clear of the closing doors, please...Facing an uphill battle in their bid to privatize Social Security, congressional Republicans start contemplating a legislative exit strategy, which would probably include some concessions to a bipartisan plan. But the Dems, sensing the Clinton health care fiasco redux, may not play ball at all, with the exception of the usual "moderate" suspects. For the love of Pete, Senator Lieberman, please don't give the Bush bill any of your patented Joementum.

Hard Times.

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With the Dubya deficit looming over the second term agenda (and it's not going anywhere anytime soon) and the proposed Social Insecurity PSAs now costing trillions (per Vice-President Cheney), the administration releases a $2.57 trillion budget which "eliminates dozens of politically sensitive domestic programs, including funding for education, environmental protection and business development" and doubles the prescription drug copay for veterans. (America's children and Armed Forces -- our nation's richest 1% thank you again for your sacrifice.)

Causing Deprivation.

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I was at the movies during Dubya's State of the Union address -- I tried to watch it online this evening after my Radicalism sections, but Quicktime died in mid-sentence, so I just ended up reading it. And, while I thought it was very well-written as per the norm, my thoughts on the address have been colored even more than usual by the punditocracy. So, with that in mind, I'll avoid being derivative and just direct y'all to the following:

  • Fred Kaplan: "Some of the president's statements on national security were simply puzzling. Again on Iran, he said, 'We are working with European allies to make clear to the Iranian regime that it must give up its uranium-enrichment program and any plutonium reprocessing.' This is just false."


  • Chris Suellentrop: "You could call Bush's idea the Screw Your Grandchildren Act...This was the Greatest Love of All speech, in which Bush asserted that The Children Are Our Future. But before you sign on to Bush's proposal, be aware that what he's offering is pretty tough love."


  • Will Saletan: "Tonight's State of the Union Address demonstrated again that President Bush is a man of very clear principles. He's just flexible about when to apply them."


  • Joe Conason: "Although George W. Bush and the White House aides who craft these public spectacles become increasingly adept at manipulating the feelings of his audience every year, their underlying method remains the same: to shade inconvenient realities with rhetorical vagueness and outright deception."


  • E.J. Dionne: "Our country could profit from an honest debate about the future of Social Security. Judging from President Bush's State of the Union address, that is not the kind of debate we are about to have."

Snowe drifts.

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With the Congressional battle lines forming over Dubya's coming Social Security overhaul, Senate Finance Committee member and GOP moderate Olympia Snowe voices her doubts on CNN, which could greatly benefit Dems in defeating the plan (if we get our act together.) "Raising broad objections to the substance and presentation of the White House case, Snowe made it clear she is not convinced that a Social Security crisis has arrived, as Bush maintains...And Snowe said she is 'certainly not going to support diverting $2 trillion from Social Security into creating personal savings accounts'" (although she is not averse to the principle of PSAs in general).

The Other Shoe Drops.

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Surprise, surprise. "The Bush administration has signaled that it will propose changing the formula that sets initial Social Security benefit levels, cutting promised benefits by nearly a third in the coming decades, according to several Republicans close to the White House." Administration officials claim the deficit caused by this "price-indexing" change -- pegging first-year benefits to inflation rather than the rise in wages -- will be made up by, you guessed it, "personal investment accounts," a.k.a. the Bush privatization plan. Funny how Dubya neglected to mention this cut only a few weeks ago...I doubt the plan was formulated over Christmas.

Preying on (Social) Insecurity.

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Dubya starts the hard sell on his plan for privatizing Social Security, claiming such a move will reassure financial markets. "Mr. Bush never mentioned the near certainty that without raising taxes, which he has ruled out, any plan to add personal investment accounts to Social Security and improve its financial condition would include a reduction in the guaranteed retirement benefit." Hmmm...that doesn't sound very reassuring.

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